Trump will lose re-election if…
- His approval rating stays below 40%.
- The democrats can actually win in a massive landslide during the 2018 mid-term elections. I’m talking winning both houses of congress. I’m not convinced the dems will win either house but we will see what happens.
- The economy looks shaky by summer 2020.
- The democrats nominate a great presidential candidate and vice-presidential candidate for 2020. As much as I like Joe Biden, I think his time for the top job has passed. Same for Bernie Sanders. I hope someone with a fantastic message and platform and who is much younger than Trump is nominated. Also, a woman on the ticket (either president or vice president) is critical.
- The most important key to Trump losing re-election is if he gets a strong GOP candidate to go up against him in 2020. If that happens, the 2020 election may start to look like a repeat of 1980 when Jimmy Carter had to fight for the democrat nomination or a repeat of 1992 with George H.W. Bush who had to fight for the GOP nomination.
If all that happens, then I have no doubt Trump will become a one-term president and the dems will take back the white house in a landslide as big as Barack Obama’s win in 2008. However, as of right now, I think Trump has a 51% of winning in 2020.
2016 was an anomaly because while he had a 38-40% rating Clinton was only at 42%. Both nominees were historically unpopular, so in that case Trump was considered the lesser evil. That won't be the case in 2020.
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