2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Pericles]

D +5 isn't enough. Democrats needed to win by 12 to win in 2016. While I think it won't be that bad in 2018, certainly +6 or +7 isn't safe majority but is probably the bare minimum.

[Pericles]

D +5 isn't enough. Democrats needed to win by 12 to win in 2016.

That's not how it works. You can't just apply uniform swing from the previous election. By that logic, Republicans had no chance at winning dozens of districts they picked up in 2010.

I don't think the Dems will need that kind of margin, but it would be implausible for them to need D+12 and then only need D+4, especially when gerrymandering has had a similarly severe effect in 2012 and 2014. 2018 is different in some ways due to the wider field of competitive races and better candidate quality, and just different dynamics, but D+7 being the margin needed-which is in line with respected estimates-seems about right, give or take 1 or 2 percentage points either way.

[Pericles]

Those numbers look good on their own. But it's not that impressive that Hunter is up 9 in a D internal(and over 50%), so he's probably Safe. This doesn't affect my view of the wider battle for the House at all.

[Pericles]

Those poll results were a letdown, Estes is very likely winning if he's up 4 in a Thompson internal. However Democrats could gain KS-02 and KS-03 if things go their way.

[Pericles]

Tbh a 20-25 seat gain would probably mean Democrats have the same level of popular support as the GOP in 2010, so while not a wave in the seat sense it would be misleading to dismiss such a result entirely and given the obstacles in the form of gerrymandering to a Democratic victory any win is probably a wave in at least some sense.

[Pericles]

Casten has the Big-Mo! Might have to shift this race to Likely D.

[Pericles]

Based on what nobody answering in the available line, Illinois 12 will have 0% turnout.

[Pericles]

I only saw a dot for McGrath, this seat is Safe D.

[Pericles]

Rouda favorability; 28% favorable rating; 15% unfavorable; 57% don’t know
Rohrabacher favorability; 34% favorable rating; 38% unfavorable; 28% don’t know

Ergo, undecideds are more likely to go to Rouda than Rohrabacher.

[Pericles]

The 72 KY-06 voters don't like Andy Barr;
39% favorable rating; 53% unfavorable; 8% don’t know