Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Pericles]

Trump's approval ratings, always being negative, are a very strong sign that Trump was not in fact a popular charismatic campaigning genius but won primarily because Hillary was a terrible candidate (and he got lucky) and that he was seen by a bare plurality in the necessary states as the lesser evil. I'm inclined to think his 2020 odds are overrated and his true unpopularity with a majority of the electorate has not yet been priced in.

[Pericles]

Minor fluctuations in Trump's approval rating don't matter much. Trump has been consistently underwater since his inauguration, and has not won over the majority of people who disliked him (he has never had the support of a majority of the electorate, and third-party voters and those who disliked both him and Hillary meant he could win narrowly with 46% of the vote). Additionally, he has consistently been below his 46% vote share in his approval ratings. His re-election chances won't be fundamentally changed unless Trump makes inroads beyond his base, so he gets above 46% consistently and regularly, or if he loses part of his base (so if he gets under definitely 40% and probably goes below is previous all-time lows of just above 35%).