UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Pericles]

Perhaps the biggest drop-off in turnout will be with the Labour Leaver types who are dissatisfied with the choices on offer anyway, unclear how these people would vote, maybe some go Labour, some go Tory and some go Brexit and some go to random other parties.

[Pericles]

I heard the SNP is gaining seats from the LibDems, maybe even Swinson is vulnerable?

[Pericles]

RIP Jeremy Corbyn. I wouldn't have voted for Tories, but Corbyn defeat his great news.

And the Lib Dems has 13 seats so Labour returning to New Labour won't happen.

Well, Blair did warn LAB that accepting an election would be a mistake

To be fair, the LibDems and SNP already backed the bill for an election, so there would have been an election regardless of Labour's position. Better for Labour then not to look like cowards.

[Pericles]

The exit poll says Bolsover is 'likely' to flip to the Tories.

[Pericles]

Huh, the exit poll says Cities of London and Westminster is going to Labour.

[Pericles]

Tories will definitely govern for longer than they did under Thatcher and Major.

Yeah, well, that's, just, like, your opinion, man.

Welcome to the forum.

Tbh, the Conservatives would still be vulnerable in 2024, it is more that Corbyn has lost than Boris has won. They also campaigned on promises like an end to austerity and getting Brexit done that they are either unable or unwilling to achieve. Still, starting so far behind and such a grim result in Scotland makes it look very hard for Labour to win an outright majority in 2024, hung parliament then certainly possible. 5 grim years beforehand though, and this election should have been a Labour win, so it is really a tragic result.

[Pericles]

BBC expects that Dudley North, formerly Labour, will go 58-37 Tory

It was pretty much Safe Tory, given that not only it's a 0.1% Labour majority (it also swung 5.5% to the Tories in 2017), that alone means it flips, but it's also got a 71% Leave vote, and not only that but it's an open seat and even further the previous MP outright told people to vote for the Tories. The swing is interesting, and a 21% majority for the Tories is in line with a great result for them.

[Pericles]

Tories will definitely govern for longer than they did under Thatcher and Major.

Yeah, well, that's, just, like, your opinion, man.

Welcome to the forum.

Tbh, the Conservatives would still be vulnerable in 2024, it is more that Corbyn has lost than Boris has won. They also campaigned on promises like an end to austerity and getting Brexit done that they are either unable or unwilling to achieve. Still, starting so far behind and such a grim result in Scotland makes it look very hard for Labour to win an outright majority in 2024, hung parliament then certainly possible. 5 grim years beforehand though, and this election should have been a Labour win, so it is really a tragic result.

Labour would have to gain 130 seats to get even near to be a government; Blair did 145 in 1997, so it is not outside the realm of possibility. But Labour needs to pick the right leader.

Indeed, tbh a hung parliament in 2024 with Labour as the largest party looks more plausible. That'd require a gain of about 90 seats, so a David Cameron rather than a Tony Blair.

[Pericles]

Looks like the Tories are doing badly in Remainer constituencies in London, projected to lose Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Putney an almost certain Labour gain, Kensington an almost certain Labour hold. Better than expected for those ones, shows this is a huge Brexit realignment.

[Pericles]

Looks like the Tories are doing badly in Remainer constituencies in London, projected to lose Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Putney an almost certain Labour gain, Kensington an almost certain Labour hold. Better than expected for those ones, shows this is a huge Brexit realignment.

Yes, the Tory vote appear to be seriously well distributed. London and the South is moving one way, but it only wipes away a handful of Tory seats when they are on 45% nationwide. The North meanwhile is moving in the opposite direction and giving the tories tons of flips, the NE has supposedly a 11% swing.

Where is TrendsAreReal when we need him?

Let's wait and see before judging the efficiency of the Tory vote. We may be seeing a lot of narrow gains that boost the seat-count and so make the Tory vote efficient when there is such a strong national margin, but if there was a slightly closer margin perhaps then the Tories get a lot less seats. Or perhaps this isn't the case at all. It's too early to tell.

[Pericles]

11% swing to the Tories in Houghton and Sunderland South (still a 3,115 majority, but very worrying for other seats).

[Pericles]

11% swing to the Tories in Houghton and Sunderland South (still a 3,115 majority, but very worrying for other seats).

Brexit Party vote was 2 times the Labour majority there, might even have flipped otherwise. Brexit Party may save Labour a few seats by the looks of things.

[Pericles]

Ruth Davidson on ITV seems convinced its mainly Labour that have collapsed to the SNP and that the Tories and Lib Dems have done okay. Take with a grain of salt but let's see.

Makes sense given the pre-election polling, and there may have been a late swing to the SNP too partly based on tactical voting.

[Pericles]

Aaargh the Remain vote ends up almost perfectly split in Cities of London and Westminster, letting the Tories slip back in.

[Pericles]

Sinn Fein defeats DUP leader Nigel Dodds.

[Pericles]

If another independence bid ultimately fails, then there could as a consequence be a historic crash in SNP support similar to 1979 (or indeed Scottish Labour's in 2015) Quebec is not of course the same as Scotland, but certainly suggests this is possible.

The crash could also drag out over time and the SNP lasts several elections as the party standing up for Scotland's interests, like how the Bloc Quebecois maintained their dominance in Quebec after the 1995 defeat of independence all the way until 2011, and even then regained a solid share of seats in 2019.