Nationall poll, SEP. 1-2, Red Oak/Google, Clinton +3

[Erich Maria Remarque]

https://s3.amazonaws.com/redoakstrategic-gcs/RedOakStrategic_NationalGCSSurvey_Sept62016.pdf
926 LV, B rating (according to 538), compared to 8/18-8/19:

"If the US Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?"
Hillary Clint              34.1%  (–3.3%)
Donald Trump          31.6%  (+1.2%)
Gary Johnson             9.4%   (–1.0%)
Other / Don’t Know       9%   (+3.1%)

Preferences among voters who prefer a candidate:
Hillary Clinton          45.3%  (–2.6%)
Donald Trump          42.1%  (+3.2%)
Gary Johnson           12.5%  (–0.8%)

2016 preferences among voters who prefer a major party candidate:
Hillary Clinton         51.8%   (–3.4%)
Donald Trump         48.2%  (+3.4%)


"Who did you vote for in the 2012 US Presidential election?"
Barack Obama 42.4%
Mitt Romney 34.6%
Don’t recall / Other / Didn’t vote 23.0%

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It is not about level, it is about trends.

Do they have skewed sample? Yes.
Can you see the direction and to some degree the amplitude of the trends if you have a skewed sample? Yes.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It is not about level, it is about trends.

Do they have skewed sample? Yes.
Can you see the direction and to some degree the amplitude of the trends if you have a skewed sample? Yes.

     You need multiple polls by the same pollster to see trends. What other polls have these folks done?

AUG. 3-9:      Clinton +7
AUG. 18-19:  Clinton +7
SEP. 1-2:      Clinton +3    (this one).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

I didn't check though, if the samples were "equally skewed" in those polls.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Hispanic Support

Clinton 32.1
Trump 21.3

Make of that what you will...

And White:
Clinton 34.2%
Trump 33.9%

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So it is not really a poll?
Seems like it shows how American internet users would vote?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Why do we have so much junk this cycle? What happened to all the reputable polls?

We will probably get a lot of A polls starting from next week/tomorrow.