NV-Monmouth: Trump +2

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Junk. PPP or Yougov are much better.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

For all of the talk on Atlas regarding Nevada, from the Mormon community, Latinos, English only polls, and recent trending, Dem's over-performing on ED vs Pre-ED polling, and "White Education Voter Gap", there is a major factor that has been largely ignored.

Great analysis overall.  NV definitely cannot be written off as safe for Clinton.  Polling errors in the past are polling errors in the past; Monmouth is a great pollster and knows that and has likely adjusted their model with awareness of that.

I don't like Monmouth state polls because they have almost illegally low sample size ~400.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

For all of the talk on Atlas regarding Nevada, from the Mormon community, Latinos, English only polls, and recent trending, Dem's over-performing on ED vs Pre-ED polling, and "White Education Voter Gap", there is a major factor that has been largely ignored.

Great analysis overall.  NV definitely cannot be written off as safe for Clinton.  Polling errors in the past are polling errors in the past; Monmouth is a great pollster and knows that and has likely adjusted their model with awareness of that.

I don't like Monmouth state polls because they have almost illegally low sample size ~400.

It's a small state...

Not that small. And I was talking more generally. They always have ~400 sample, whether they poll PA or NV.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 400 too small regardless of how big the state is?

It depends on your definition of "small".

Monmouth is A pollster = they pretty damn good on average. I like it.
Monmouth has sample of ~400 = much more noisy. I don't like it.

On the other hand, I should choose if you could get 1 poll from one state of ~800, or two polls from two states of ~400, I would choose the second option.