Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[Erich Maria Remarque]

If Slate is right early returns look bad for Trump. Not feeling great looking at them right now.

Yep. In fact, it more or less look like 538, but FL is "gone" for now.

So Trump might just hope on polling error/Shy Trumpistas, otherwise he's done

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Great results from this new, innovative election reporting tool!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

According to the polls Trump should be doing much stronger on ED.

Right now according to the model: EV ~= ED


So either polls are wrong, current turnout is D-friendly so far or the model is wrong

[Erich Maria Remarque]

And the bad news for Trump keeps coming:

Update: 3:06 p.m.: The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.

Why it is a bad news? It is good, if the polls were right.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Well a lot of Republicans vote after 5 or 6 when they come home from work. But also young people vote later in the day. So hard to say what's going on (even assuming this isn't junk).

Is there any data about voters pattern i.e. what time od day R vs D usually vote?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Because the election day vote will be much more conservative than the early votes.

Yeah. So why is this bad?

Because they were modeling the early vote to look like the election day vote. Come on, seriously, you can be this dense.

Sorry, misread it. I thought they had only EV on maps, not ED

But the numbers are still right?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Well a lot of Republicans vote after 5 or 6 when they come home from work. But also young people vote later in the day. So hard to say what's going on (even assuming this isn't junk).

Is there any data about voters pattern i.e. what time od day R vs D usually vote?

Lief is trolling. It's the other way around. The Democrats do best with late-in-the-day voters, Republicans do best with midday and morning voters. Obviously there are exceptions in certain areas based on demographics, but this is the overall pattern. The effect is not huge but it is noticeable.

Haha, ok. I didn't know. It is so strange that you in USA vote on workday

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Florida more Democratic than Nevada?

Right?!?!?!

At this point it's fair to say that this model is quite bearish on Clinton in NV, and quite bullish in FL. Again, this all needs to be taken with huge grains of salt and skepticism.

It is pretty strange. I though that NV Hispanics would be underestimated much more than in FL. But so far it is other way around...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Florida more Democratic than Nevada?

Right?!?!?!

At this point it's fair to say that this model is quite bearish on Clinton in NV, and quite bullish in FL. Again, this all needs to be taken with huge grains of salt and skepticism.

It is pretty strange. I though that NV Hispanics would be underestimated much more than in FL. But so far it is other way around...

Remember, the model takes polls into account with their estimates.

I know, but I assumed that since they used voter file, they'd get much better result in reaching all groups. If they are really from Obama team.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Wait, I thought they said it was similar to Obama's data operation, not his actual model.

I didn't say it. Just that some of them were from Obama's team.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

              Clinton's lead in thousands    Obama's lead      ~% counted (deleted)
Florida       +278                                +84                                                
Iowa          +19                                  +92                                                            
Newada      +7                                    +68                                                            
NH             +16                                  +39                            
Ohio           +29                                  +166                          
PA              +103                                +309                          
Wi              +149                                 +213                          

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Well, it'll still be just a poll. The first real numbers come after 6 PM.

Exactly!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

[Erich Maria Remarque]

With these numbers (which I do not particularly believe), Trump will plateau at about 220-230 EV.  And that is assuming he takes OH, IA, AZ, GA, UT....

On the other hand, if you assume 3% error, it might be todo o nada for Trump