2018 Senatorial Elections

[talkorpi]

First post ever, here goes!

(Added a Tilt in between Tossup and Lean because I think there will be some pretty close elections this year.)

Arizona: Likely R
California: Safe D
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Tilt R
Hawaii: Safe D
Indiana: Lean R
Maine: Likely I
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Likely D (Lean D if Stabenow retires)
Minnesota: Safe D (Lean D if Klobuchar is appointed to SCOTUS)
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Tilt R (Lean R if McCaskill's opponent is Ann Wagner)
Montana: Tossup
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Lean R
New Jersey: Likely D
New Mexico: Safe D (Tossup if Heinrich's opponent is Susana Martinez)
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Tossup (Tilt D if Heitkamp campaigns as well as in 2014)
Ohio: Tilt D
Pennsylvania: Tossup
Rhode Island: Safe D
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R (Safe R if a Castro Brother is not the Dem nominee)
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D/I (Basically, Safe Sanders)
Virginia: Tilt R
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Tilt D (Solid R if Manchin does a party switch)
Wisconsin: Tilt D (Tossup if Ryan-type is GOP nominee)
Wyoming: Safe R

I felt like being a little nice to the Democrats this cycle, but a lot of Dems up for reelection in 2018 are moderates and actually can lean conservative on the idealogical spectrum (Manchin, Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester). I'll just say that I would vote for any of those four Dems over a Far-Right Tea Party nut any day.

R+4, up to R+8 if all possible tossup scenarios are won by Republicans (although I think this is highly unlikely.)