Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[ursulahx]

This ‘if true’ line used in all the GOP statements is going to be their out. Next week all will be forgiven and they’ll just say it was never proven

Exactly. The "if proven true" is their fig leaf. Until these allegations are proven in a court of law (and presumably that would be very difficult), they're just going to shrug and say, "so what? I've already said he should go if he's guilty, but that hasn't been proven yet." And they can say this all through Moore's tenure in the Senate, until he does or says something else.

[ursulahx]

If Jones is smart - and I suspect he is - he'll run on healthcare and maybe the tax bill (although I think the latter is a double-edged sword). He won't run on character. Let the stories do the work by themselves.

As others have said, it comes down to: will evangelicals come out for Moore, regardless? (My guess is yes, but I don't know if they constitute a majority.) Will other R voters stay home, write in Strange, or switch to Jones? (My guess is yes, some; yes, a handful; not many esp. given Jones is pro-choice.) EDIT: Of course, this may all have blown over by early December, in which case Moore can likely ride it out (see what I did there?).

I can see Jones getting within 4 points, but I can't see him winning. But I thought Gillespie was going to win, so what do I know.