OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What do you guys think of Betty Sutton? Says she's considering. If she runs, is it likely she becomes the nominee (assuming Cordray stays out?)

A has-been that never was and a weak candidate to boot.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sutton to make her intentions known next week.

I'm hearing she's in

Gross

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sutton to make her intentions known next week.

I'm hearing she's in

Gross

She's easily the dem front runner, Husted and Renacci beat her, She beats Taylor, Dewine is a toss up

LOL

Sutton is a weak candidate with absolutely no cross-over appeal and one of the few capable of losing to Taylor.  DeWine would wipe the floor with her, btw.  Renacci is a weak candidate too, so that would probably be a close-ish Republican victory.  Fortunately, Schiavoni will beat her in the primary unless Cordray jumps in.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rep. Rob Sprauge (R-Findlay) has announced a run for Treasurer.

And the Republican contenders all met in Cincinnati for a pancake breakfast. Taylor praised Trump for his EO on cutting regulations and emphasized Kasich's backing; DeWine praised Sessions as an old Senate ally and prosecutor; Husted avoided linking himself to Trump and made a pitch to de-escalate abortion rhetoric; and Renacci was basically left to introduce himself to a much wide audience than he's known in Congress, he played up his decision to run for Congress after the auto bailout didn't do enough for his dealership, and generally painted himself as a Trump-like business outsider.

EDIT: Nan Whaley is running opposed in her race for a second term as Mayor of Dayton, freeing up time and resources to run for Governor, if she so desires.

Sprague vs. Mingo could turn out to be the most interesting primary.

Mingo has more skeletons in his closet than Newt Gingrich.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rep. Rob Sprauge (R-Findlay) has announced a run for Treasurer.

And the Republican contenders all met in Cincinnati for a pancake breakfast. Taylor praised Trump for his EO on cutting regulations and emphasized Kasich's backing; DeWine praised Sessions as an old Senate ally and prosecutor; Husted avoided linking himself to Trump and made a pitch to de-escalate abortion rhetoric; and Renacci was basically left to introduce himself to a much wide audience than he's known in Congress, he played up his decision to run for Congress after the auto bailout didn't do enough for his dealership, and generally painted himself as a Trump-like business outsider.

EDIT: Nan Whaley is running opposed in her race for a second term as Mayor of Dayton, freeing up time and resources to run for Governor, if she so desires.

Sprague vs. Mingo could turn out to be the most interesting primary.

Mingo has more skeletons in his closet than Newt Gingrich.

I think the Franklin County Republican Party would be sorely remiss if they let Mingo go. (Though he's clearly interested in running.) They only hold 3 county offices, and that includes Engineer, which is sort of a joke, as far as partisanship is concerned. A real backslide, since Dems really only started winning Franklin in '96.

What skeletons are you referring to, X?

Does anyone care if the Franklin co party holds any office other than prosecutor? Particularly vs. having a favorable ear running a statewide agency's?

And he has a ton of skeletons, I won't trade in rumors but they are there.

I don't want to encourage the rumor trade, but if there's anything that's been serious to write about in the Dispatch, it's probably worth discussing. (Not that I can find anything so serious.)

I'll shoot you a PM when I have a chance.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sutton has superior name recognition, obviously, but I'm skeptical about her campaign chops. We'll see

Schiavoni should win the nomination although it's admittedly not a lock.  Sutton is a pretty weak candidate, as I've said before. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Schiavoni's money problem is deceptive. He may not have a lot in the bank himself, but that's because he was doing a lot of fundraising for the Senate Democrats. People like Lou Gentile and Cathy Johnson. He's got good contacts.

And the senate hasn't been fundraising powers.

But more importantly, he has contacts but not the level of Sutton, who will tap into DC, State, and Obama network contacts better

Actually, I'd argue Schiavoni has better contacts than Sutton, at least among Ohio Democrats.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Schiavoni would be a stronger candidate imo, but Pillich would still be a decent enough nominee who won three times in a pretty conservative state house district in suburban Hamilton County before running for OH Treasurer and she'd certainly be much better than Sutton.  In fact, I think if 2014 were even a neutral year, she very well might've beaten Mandel (and if not, she would've barely lost).  But again, Schiavoni is currently the strongest Democrat running (at least on paper, it remains to be seen whether he can improve his fundraising now that he's running in a statewide election).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Definitely, but it's pretty early.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Depends on the candidates, republicans have heavyweights for governor and AG and if Frank LaRose wins the SOS primary I expect him to win that seat, auditor and treasurer are open

Keith Faber, for auditor, is running and is easily considered a heavyweight. H should clear the primary field, and I imagine Democrats would probably put their eggs in the Treasurer and SOS baskets with regards to downballot offices. Frank LaRose may be picked for LG, or, if Renacci retires, maybe he goes for OH-16, which does not quite include his house, but it does include much of his Senate district, unless someone else runs, and he's more interested in the state level. Didn't some other Republican already announce her intentions for SOS?

The Democrats also have a solid candidate for AG (that and Treasurer are probably the best shots, assuming Leland runs).  LaRose could also very well lose the SoS primary to a weaker, far more right-wing candidate.  Even DeWine is very capable of blowing races if the tide is against him (as we saw in 2006).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Depends on the candidates, republicans have heavyweights for governor and AG and if Frank LaRose wins the SOS primary I expect him to win that seat, auditor and treasurer are open

Keith Faber, for auditor, is running and is easily considered a heavyweight. H should clear the primary field, and I imagine Democrats would probably put their eggs in the Treasurer and SOS baskets with regards to downballot offices. Frank LaRose may be picked for LG, or, if Renacci retires, maybe he goes for OH-16, which does not quite include his house, but it does include much of his Senate district, unless someone else runs, and he's more interested in the state level. Didn't some other Republican already announce her intentions for SOS?

The Democrats also have a solid candidate for AG (that and Treasurer are probably the best shots, assuming Leland runs).  LaRose could also very well lose the SoS primary to a weaker, far more right-wing candidate.  Even DeWine is very capable of blowing races if the tide is against him (as we saw in 2006).

I don't think Dettlebach? Someone no one has ever heard of matches up to Yost and his war chest. Yost is generally well respected by both parties.

Clyde can beat Pelanda, she can't beat LaRose. Faber and Sprague/Mingo are beatable.

The dems best hope is Pelanda beats LaRose, and Mingo beats sprague. And by some miracle Renacci or Mary Taylor win the Govs. Primary.

Leland would beat Sprague and absolutely clobber Mingo.  I've been pretty impressed by what I've been hearing about Dettlebach so far and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner.  Yes, Yost has a fundraising lead, but that'll shrink.  Schiavoni or Pillich could beat DeWine in a Democratic year if the Republican primary is a bruising one (as appears likely).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Depends on the candidates, republicans have heavyweights for governor and AG and if Frank LaRose wins the SOS primary I expect him to win that seat, auditor and treasurer are open

Keith Faber, for auditor, is running and is easily considered a heavyweight. H should clear the primary field, and I imagine Democrats would probably put their eggs in the Treasurer and SOS baskets with regards to downballot offices. Frank LaRose may be picked for LG, or, if Renacci retires, maybe he goes for OH-16, which does not quite include his house, but it does include much of his Senate district, unless someone else runs, and he's more interested in the state level. Didn't some other Republican already announce her intentions for SOS?

The Democrats also have a solid candidate for AG (that and Treasurer are probably the best shots, assuming Leland runs).  LaRose could also very well lose the SoS primary to a weaker, far more right-wing candidate.  Even DeWine is very capable of blowing races if the tide is against him (as we saw in 2006).

I don't think Dettlebach? Someone no one has ever heard of matches up to Yost and his war chest. Yost is generally well respected by both parties.

Clyde can beat Pelanda, she can't beat LaRose. Faber and Sprague/Mingo are beatable.

The dems best hope is Pelanda beats LaRose, and Mingo beats sprague. And by some miracle Renacci or Mary Taylor win the Govs. Primary.

Leland would beat Sprague and absolutely clobber Mingo.  I've been pretty impressed by what I've been hearing about Dettlebach so far and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner.  Yes, Yost has a fundraising lead, but that'll shrink.  Schiavoni or Pillich could beat DeWine in a Democratic year if the Republican primary is a bruising one (as appears likely).

Dettelbach is law school friends with Obama, he shouldn't have fundraising trouble. And Yost is ... kind of a snooze. Yeah, he's established, but his name ID isn't great for a statewide office holder.

Dettlebachs never run for anything and is a complete no one, I think he's a massive underdog right now.

Dewine is beatable, not by Pillich or Schiavoni, and Husted would probably throttle those two.

Husted would win easily in the general, but he's far from a sure thing in the primary.  Schiavoni and Pillich are more than capable of beating DeWine in a Democratic year.  Dettelbach is a solid recruit and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner with limited name-ID despite being a row-officer.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Depends on the candidates, republicans have heavyweights for governor and AG and if Frank LaRose wins the SOS primary I expect him to win that seat, auditor and treasurer are open

Keith Faber, for auditor, is running and is easily considered a heavyweight. H should clear the primary field, and I imagine Democrats would probably put their eggs in the Treasurer and SOS baskets with regards to downballot offices. Frank LaRose may be picked for LG, or, if Renacci retires, maybe he goes for OH-16, which does not quite include his house, but it does include much of his Senate district, unless someone else runs, and he's more interested in the state level. Didn't some other Republican already announce her intentions for SOS?

The Democrats also have a solid candidate for AG (that and Treasurer are probably the best shots, assuming Leland runs).  LaRose could also very well lose the SoS primary to a weaker, far more right-wing candidate.  Even DeWine is very capable of blowing races if the tide is against him (as we saw in 2006).

I don't think Dettlebach? Someone no one has ever heard of matches up to Yost and his war chest. Yost is generally well respected by both parties.

Clyde can beat Pelanda, she can't beat LaRose. Faber and Sprague/Mingo are beatable.

The dems best hope is Pelanda beats LaRose, and Mingo beats sprague. And by some miracle Renacci or Mary Taylor win the Govs. Primary.

Leland would beat Sprague and absolutely clobber Mingo.  I've been pretty impressed by what I've been hearing about Dettlebach so far and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner.  Yes, Yost has a fundraising lead, but that'll shrink.  Schiavoni or Pillich could beat DeWine in a Democratic year if the Republican primary is a bruising one (as appears likely).

Dettelbach is law school friends with Obama, he shouldn't have fundraising trouble. And Yost is ... kind of a snooze. Yeah, he's established, but his name ID isn't great for a statewide office holder.

Dettlebachs never run for anything and is a complete no one, I think he's a massive underdog right now.

Dewine is beatable, not by Pillich or Schiavoni, and Husted would probably throttle those two.

Husted would win easily in the general, but he's far from a sure thing in the primary.  Schiavoni and Pillich are more than capable of beating DeWine in a Democratic year.  Dettelbach is a solid recruit and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner with limited name-ID despite being a row-officer.

Schiavoni and Pillich are going to need a lot of help to beat Dewine, and I don't think either are the front runners in the primary right now.

Dettlebach is the kind of recruit whos competitive against another statewide unknown, he's going to struggle against Yost bad. Also can we call him a weak campaigner when his opponent has never run for anything? His name id isn't great, but it's not terrible, and it's a better ballot name than Dettlebach. I still think Schiavoni should slide down and run for that spot.

Have you ever heard Yost give a stump speech?  There's a term for it: nap time   I think Dettelbach will either beat or narrowly lose to Yost, although it's early.  Leland is almost certainly gonna pick up the Treasurer's office though; the man is an absolute fundraising machine and he can be absolutely ruthless when necessary. 

Schiavoni and Pillich will both finish ahead of Sutton in the primary, I think.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Depends on the candidates, republicans have heavyweights for governor and AG and if Frank LaRose wins the SOS primary I expect him to win that seat, auditor and treasurer are open

Keith Faber, for auditor, is running and is easily considered a heavyweight. H should clear the primary field, and I imagine Democrats would probably put their eggs in the Treasurer and SOS baskets with regards to downballot offices. Frank LaRose may be picked for LG, or, if Renacci retires, maybe he goes for OH-16, which does not quite include his house, but it does include much of his Senate district, unless someone else runs, and he's more interested in the state level. Didn't some other Republican already announce her intentions for SOS?

The Democrats also have a solid candidate for AG (that and Treasurer are probably the best shots, assuming Leland runs).  LaRose could also very well lose the SoS primary to a weaker, far more right-wing candidate.  Even DeWine is very capable of blowing races if the tide is against him (as we saw in 2006).

I don't think Dettlebach? Someone no one has ever heard of matches up to Yost and his war chest. Yost is generally well respected by both parties.

Clyde can beat Pelanda, she can't beat LaRose. Faber and Sprague/Mingo are beatable.

The dems best hope is Pelanda beats LaRose, and Mingo beats sprague. And by some miracle Renacci or Mary Taylor win the Govs. Primary.

Leland would beat Sprague and absolutely clobber Mingo.  I've been pretty impressed by what I've been hearing about Dettlebach so far and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner.  Yes, Yost has a fundraising lead, but that'll shrink.  Schiavoni or Pillich could beat DeWine in a Democratic year if the Republican primary is a bruising one (as appears likely).

Dettelbach is law school friends with Obama, he shouldn't have fundraising trouble. And Yost is ... kind of a snooze. Yeah, he's established, but his name ID isn't great for a statewide office holder.

Dettlebachs never run for anything and is a complete no one, I think he's a massive underdog right now.

Dewine is beatable, not by Pillich or Schiavoni, and Husted would probably throttle those two.

Husted would win easily in the general, but he's far from a sure thing in the primary.  Schiavoni and Pillich are more than capable of beating DeWine in a Democratic year.  Dettelbach is a solid recruit and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner with limited name-ID despite being a row-officer.

Schiavoni and Pillich are going to need a lot of help to beat Dewine, and I don't think either are the front runners in the primary right now.

Dettlebach is the kind of recruit whos competitive against another statewide unknown, he's going to struggle against Yost bad. Also can we call him a weak campaigner when his opponent has never run for anything? His name id isn't great, but it's not terrible, and it's a better ballot name than Dettlebach. I still think Schiavoni should slide down and run for that spot.

Yes. Because as X said, he's really quite boring. Dettelbach needs to prove his hustle, but everything so far paints him as a serious contender.

Yost is boring, and a bit folksy, but it plays, people outside of the metropolises genuinely like him, plus he's got a pretty strong record as auditor to run on. I've rolled my eyes at plenty of Yost speeches only to hear the old couple on the way out the door hear how charming he is. He's Pat Boone, the cool kids may all laugh but the dude sells records. Dettelbach is literally a no one, he's got a ton of work to be a real candidate.

Right now I think Pillich finishes dead last in the dem primary, behind even Whaley, it's Suttons to lose, unless Schiavoni finds a big bankroll.

Who's Pat Boone?  Also you guys underestimate Dettelbach at your own peril, I think.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm still with X. Though I'll admit bias, as I saw him at an event early and that put me on a hype train. However, I think the same can be said of Pillich within the primary. Again, she's starting with $435k on hand and raised $3.5 mil running for Treasuer in '13-14, as opposed to AG or Gov. Sutton, meanwhile, only raised $2.5 mil running in a competitive CD in a good year when she last ran for office. She's also not sitting on anything.

It's easier to raise money state wide then for congress.

I think Pillich is facing an uphill battle, Whaleys going to steal all the thunder as the loud mouth progressive, Sutton will suck up the labor money, Schiavoni will hold his own as the only man in the field.
Sutton: 42
Schiavoni:32
Whaley: 16
Pillich:10
That's my guess right now.


I think there's definitely Dettelbach bias coming from you two, considering a prominent democrat leader in my neck of the woods answered "who?" When I asked what she thought of him. After googling him she still had no idea who he was. That's bad.

No offense or anything, but what is your neck of the woods?  I only ask b/c if it's rural Northwestern OH  or somewhere like Highland County, that'd explain it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Basically had it confirmed that Whaley will announce next week.

Ugh

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congresman Jim Renacci to file gubernatorial paperwork later this morning. While largely unknown outside of his district, he is one of the wealthiest members of Congress and can play off his early support for Trump.

Well okay then   If Renacci wants to throw away his political career, I certainly won't complain. 

The Democrats should definitely try to recruit a top-tier candidate here.  This seat is winnable, especially in a Democratic year.  Even Sutton almost beat Renacci (admittedly a weak-ish incumbent, but so was Sutton) in 2012.  While I'd prefer a stronger recruit who hasn't...you know...already lost here (ideally someone from either the swingy/mildly Republican-leaning Cuyahoga County portion or a moderates from the Summit County portion besides Sutton).  Actually, if we can't find such a recruit then at the very least Sutton could at least drop down and run here as wave insurance.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If it's open in a good year, the 14th is a fine target. So long as someone other than Wager runs.

I could see, perhaps worryingly, Tom Sawyer trying to make a comeback?

Renacci represents the 16th, but yes, the 14th is a good target regardless of what Joyce does.
 

Congresman Jim Renacci to file gubernatorial paperwork later this morning. While largely unknown outside of his district, he is one of the wealthiest members of Congress and can play off his early support for Trump.

Well okay then   If Renacci wants to throw away his political career, I certainly won't complain. 

The Democrats should definitely try to recruit a top-tier candidate here.  This seat is winnable, especially in a Democratic year.  Even Sutton almost beat Renacci (admittedly a weak-ish incumbent, but so was Sutton) in 2012.  While I'd prefer a stronger recruit who hasn't...you know...already lost here (ideally someone from either the swingy/mildly Republican-leaning Cuyahoga County portion or a moderates from the Summit County portion besides Sutton).  Actually, if we can't find such a recruit then at the very least Sutton could at least drop down and run here as wave insurance.

56-40 Trump, IIRC. Not impossible, but - difficult.

That number is pretty deceptive.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Franklin County Auditor, Clarence Mingo, will primary State Rep. Robert Sprague for Treasurer.

I wonder if the Republicans will be dumb enough to nominate him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just wondering, what in particular makes Mingo a bad candidate?

Placeholder for whenever I have time to make megapost about all his scandals and skeletons and general awfulness as a candidate.  And speaking as a resident of a fairly Republican part of Franklin County, he really wouldn't over-perform generic R at all here, especially not with African-Americans.  Leland would kick Mingo's a**, to be blunt.  Of course, that's what happens when you run an A-list candidate who happens to be a fundraising powerhouse when motivated against a weak B-list Republican.  The margin may not be a blowout, to be sure, but Leland's got this if he runs unless a much stronger Republican than Mingo gets in the race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

You definitely should not feel that way.

Who's Kasich's candidate?

He has publicly backed Taylor, his LG, in the run up to the race, I dont believe hes formally endorsed, the majority of Kasich's "team" appears to be backing Mike DeWine.

Worth noting that happened after Taylor betrayed Team Kasich when she voted for the new, Trump-approved OH GOP chair, Jane Timken, over long-time Kasich ally, Matt Borges.

In fairness dewines campaign manager is a long time Kasich operative and he was hired prior to that

It's funny, though, given Kasich ran DeWine's people out of OH GOP leadership back in 2010.

Different Dewine. Kevin DeWine was the party chair in 2010, in 2012 Kasich had him ousted, but he wasn't a Mike Dewine loyalist

He's Mike DeWine's second cousin.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I actually think way too many people give credit to gerrymandering, it's a factor, but it's rarely as egregious as everyone claims it is (Illinois congressional is, and Ohio's is bad, but it's also what congressional Ds wanted at the time to dump Kucinich). I honestly feel the democrats complete inaction on recruiting good candidates has been their downfall for some time, let's not forget they had the house not that long ago. And it's an epidemic that has trended statewide, David Pepper, Mary O'shaugnessy, Kevin Boyce, Nina Turner, Ed Fitzgerald, have all been pretty awful recruits for statewide races.

David Pepper wasn't bad a bad recruit for Auditor in 2010 by any stretch of the imagination.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

2016 was obviously a sh**t year for Democrats around the nation. I don't think Pepper's been around enough to really deserve blame. Though we'll see how '18 goes.

Not the Dayton piece, but there were roughly 20 competitive elections last year, according to the Dispatch. Certainly, we need more Lou Gentiles.

Pepper wasn't the best candidate from 2014 (dark horse vote for Carney, not Pillich), but the wasn't the worst by any means. You're not wrong about him being on the ticket to help raise money, but that doesn't mean down ticket office holders are bad candidates. Hamilton County was purple when Pepper got on the Board of Commissioners.

I was referring to when Pepper ran in 2010.  He wasn't nearly as strong a recruit in 2014 although he wasn't awful either.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/04/14/jim-renacci-fires-campaign-manager-after-less-than-a-month/100467516/

The link doesn't work

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Politico feature on Cordray & the race

Another benefit to Cordrey running would be that at least some folks like Schiavoni, Sutton, Pillich, etc would probably drop down to row offices (although the Treasurer nomination is probably Leland's *if* he wants it). 

On a different note, the ODP needs to find a new a AG candidate.  Much as I hate to admit it, I was wrong about Diettelbach.  He got off to a very promising start extremely early, but he seems to have already fizzled out.  However, Dave Yost is a decidedly "meh" Republican recruit and as a result, OH AG remains a great pickup opportunity if we can recruit a solid candidate.