OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Politico feature on Cordray & the race

Another benefit to Cordrey running would be that at least some folks like Schiavoni, Sutton, Pillich, etc would probably drop down to row offices (although the Treasurer nomination is probably Leland's *if* he wants it). 

On a different note, the ODP needs to find a new a AG candidate.  Much as I hate to admit it, I was wrong about Diettelbach.  He got off to a very promising start extremely early, but he seems to have already fizzled out.  However, Dave Yost is a decidedly "meh" Republican recruit and as a result, OH AG remains a great pickup opportunity if we can recruit a solid candidate.

What makes you say this? If you ask him if he's in, he'll tell you, but it technically isn't official yet.

Speaking of the Governor's race, though: If one googles "Nan Whaley" the first result to come up is an ad from her political committee that encourages visitors to respond to a survey that Whaley is needed in state level politics and should run for governor. When asked about the ad, Whaley said a decision was coming "soon."

Do you mean Diettelbach or Cordrey?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Politico feature on Cordray & the race

Another benefit to Cordrey running would be that at least some folks like Schiavoni, Sutton, Pillich, etc would probably drop down to row offices (although the Treasurer nomination is probably Leland's *if* he wants it). 

On a different note, the ODP needs to find a new a AG candidate.  Much as I hate to admit it, I was wrong about Diettelbach.  He got off to a very promising start extremely early, but he seems to have already fizzled out.  However, Dave Yost is a decidedly "meh" Republican recruit and as a result, OH AG remains a great pickup opportunity if we can recruit a solid candidate.

Do I get to say I told you so?

I'd give it two more months, but if the situation remains unchanged then yeah, I suppose you do.  Fair is fair, after all  

I still think AG is a prime Democratic pickup opportunity if we can recruit a solid candidate.  Yost is a paper tiger at best.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Whaley's official, y'all.

Probably the second best candidate, after Cordray. Good to see (almost) A-list candidates jump in. Hopefully Wisconsin dems also get a clue.

Maybe it's cause I lean the opposite way but I think she's a weak candidate headed for a 3rd place finish in the primary.

Whaley really should've run for Turner's seat, she's gonna come in dead last.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is Cordray strong? I thought he was a little damaged goods. Definitely think he has less crossover support than Generic Democrat (D).

Who's the alternative in Ohio? Cordray would be able rally progressives, is pro 2nd amendment, very well liked in the state, and plays strongly in southeastern Ohio.

Schiavoni's a good candidate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

LaRose is pretty moderate, no?

Indeed. He's on the Kasich-Portman wing, which no current statewide official really is besides those two.

So he's a conservative?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

You don't get to be House Majority Leader without putting in work and making connections. And who else besides Sprauge is even looking at Treasurer?

Mingo is running, but if Sprague has any opposition research team then he'll lose the primary.  Either way, it's probably Leland's if he wants it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

You don't get to be House Majority Leader without putting in work and making connections. And who else besides Sprauge is even looking at Treasurer?

Mingo is running, but if Sprague has any opposition research team then he'll lose the primary.  Either way, it's probably Leland's if he wants it.

Derp. Forgot about Mingo.

I kinda hope Leland runs for Auditor instead. Treasurer's important, but not on the redistricting commission.

I was wondering why there were rumors he was now also considering running for Auditor.  I think Leland would beat Faber too although the latter would be a tougher opponent than Sprague or Mingo.  That said, I think he still runs for Treasurer.  If he runs for Auditor then I could see Pillich dropping down to Treasurer and there have been rumors Zack Space is interested too, but I'd much rather see him run against Bob Gibbs as wave insurance.  I know the Mayor of Lorain was being mentioned as a possible candidate for Auditor, but I haven't heard anything about him lately and I can't imagine he'd run against one man fundraising machine known as Dave Leland

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

LaRose is pretty moderate, no?

Indeed. He's on the Kasich-Portman wing, which no current statewide official really is besides those two.

So he's a conservative?

He's to the left of Taylor, DeWine, Husted, and Mandel. I would call him a moderate.

There are very few moderate Republicans in the Ohio legislature.  The Kasich-Portman wing is A) well to the right of Husted and B) extremely right-wing on economic issues.  Just because a Republican is polite and uses non-threatening language doesn't mean they're a moderate (Patton Oswalt has a great bit on this).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

LaRose is pretty moderate, no?

Indeed. He's on the Kasich-Portman wing, which no current statewide official really is besides those two.

So he's a conservative?

He's to the left of Taylor, DeWine, Husted, and Mandel. I would call him a moderate.

There are very few moderate Republicans in the Ohio legislature.  The Kasich-Portman wing is A) well to the right of Husted and B) extremely right-wing on economic issues.  Just because a Republican is polite and uses non-threatening language doesn't mean they're a moderate (Patton Oswalt has a great bit on this).

Neither Kasich nor Portman is to the right of Husted.

Furthermore, do you consider any Republican in either house a moderate?

Actually they are, but you don't live here so I guess I'm not surprised you're a bit unfamiliar with the nuances of Ohio politics.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

LaRose is pretty moderate, no?

Indeed. He's on the Kasich-Portman wing, which no current statewide official really is besides those two.

So he's a conservative?

He's to the left of Taylor, DeWine, Husted, and Mandel. I would call him a moderate.

Dewine is arguably a moderate himself, staunchly pro-life sure, but voted for a path to citizenship, assault weapons ban, affirmative action, against drilling in Alaska. Dewines no where near as right as you think he must be

DeWine has moved quite a bit to the right since re-entered OH politics, IIRC.  He may not be a fire-breathing wingnut, but he's definitely not a moderate either.  He's fiercely pro-life, is horrible on voter's rights, supported Santorum in 2012, and has been a staunch Trump supporter, opposes gay marriage, and is pretty conservative on a number of economic issues.  He's only a "moderate" compared to someone like Josh Mandel or Jim Jordan, as opposed to being an actual moderate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

LaRose is pretty moderate, no?

Indeed. He's on the Kasich-Portman wing, which no current statewide official really is besides those two.

So he's a conservative?

He's to the left of Taylor, DeWine, Husted, and Mandel. I would call him a moderate.

Dewine is arguably a moderate himself, staunchly pro-life sure, but voted for a path to citizenship, assault weapons ban, affirmative action, against drilling in Alaska. Dewines no where near as right as you think he must be

DeWine has moved quite a bit to the right since re-entered OH politics, IIRC.  He may not be a fire-breathing wingnut, but he's definitely not a moderate either.  He's fiercely pro-life, is horrible on voter's rights, supported Santorum in 2012, and has been a staunch Trump supporter, opposes gay marriage, and is pretty conservative on a number of economic issues.  He's only a "moderate" compared to someone like Josh Mandel or Jim Jordan, as opposed to being an actual moderate.

Dewines more like Kasich in that who knows what he actually believes, but there is no way Republicans in ohio think Dewine is conservative

Being "moderate" in the context of the Ohio Republican Party doesn't make someone a moderate.  It makes them a socially center-right, economically arch-conservative Republican who uses inoffensive-sounding language even when saying really horrible things.  At this point, the ORP is extremely conservative (especially the legislature) and it's a sign of just how right-wing many Republicans in this state are that someone like Kasich or DeWine could be perceived as a "moderate." 

That said, I don't think most people see DeWine as a moderate.  I think most Ohioans consider DeWine a conservative Republican (albeit a fairly bland and inoffensive one), but the real reason he's never been all that popular with OH Republicans is that he is basically the personification of a generic career politician and thus has never been all that likable (at least imo).  This is especially problematic for him when the Republican Party is dominated by anti-establishment whacktivists who code this as a sign that DeWine is some sort of RINO squish, but again, the real issue is that he's a career politician who often comes across as being utterly unremarkable in just about every way.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's more than career politician, Husted wed all agree fits that role to. It's that Dewine has no belief structure, by all accounts he was a moderate in the senate, now he attempts to style himself a conservative, what does he actually stand for, other than being DeWine. It's the same problem many had with hillary, Kerry and others.

Fair enough, although I'd say he was center-right in the Senate (Voinovich was a moderate).  When I say DeWine's a conservative, I'm talking about since being elected AG (and especially in recent years).  Your point about DeWine not standing for anything except his career advancement is spot on though. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Dettelbach is inching toward officializing his campaign launch. From what I know, he's been getting around, but mostly on the down-low. I'd wager he's been holding off so he can announce a lot of cash on hand at launch.

Still think it's a mistake. Let's not forget that even his own campaign spelled his name wrong.

In governor news Husted picked up the Ohioans for concealed carry endorsement today.

If it's a wave, Yost will lose.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Democrats are pushing an unlikely source — Jerry Springer — to run for governor in Ohio

Aren't rumors of Springer being recruited for Governor a quadrennial tradition in Ohio?

Seemingly, he told a friend of mine who was pushing him he wasn't running

Springer's never gonna run and no one wants him to, but every cycle some random local reporter looking for a headline or low-level Republican operative tries to make this a thing even though everyone knows it's ridiculous.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean excluding for a second the likelihood of it just being a rumor-mill situation...why would Jerry Springer be such a ridiculous choice?

If the DCCC can target Chabot (Cinn City Council) for a congressional race and Sittenfield (Cinn City Council) can be taken halfway seriously by some for a Senate race, then why can't a guy who was actually the Mayor of Cincinnati at one point run for Governor?

Those Ohio Obama-Trump voters...I think they'd eat that up. A good chunk of them were basically "celebrity voters" by any standard, anyway. How many of them do you think actually watch(ed) Springer regularly in their lives?

Just to clarify, Springer wasn't elected Mayor of Cincinnati, he was appointed to a one year term by the city council.  Plus, no one in Democratic Party wants or expects him to run.  And in any case, all the current candidates are infinitely stronger (especially Schiavoni).  I'd also add that Sittenfield was only taken "seriously" as a sacrificial lamb, we all saw what happened when Strickland entered the race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Am I the only one the who thinks that the Dem Gov Field in OH is pretty good right now?

One of few. It isn't bad, per se. I'm honestly just surprised it's so small.

Small? There's five candidates really 4 major ones about the same size as the Republican field right now. Now none of them are A list candidates but they are credible not a bunch of gadfly's.

I think hes surprised, as am I that with so many "B-C list" candidates there arent more of them. Usually in a race with a bunch of lesser known a huge chunk get in.

I think springer is out and kuncinich is in though

This. With Ryan out and Cordray highly unlikely, I'm surprised the floodgates didn't break. There were twenty or so suspected B and C-listers looking at running in such a case, but now we've only got 4. (Kiefer's a D-list candidate.)

I'm also worried Kucinich is going to get in, since he's not dispelling rumors.

Yep, where are the Nina Turners, Armond Budishes, Mike Colemans, Jay Williams, Mike Ashfords, and Tom Sawyers.

Armond Budish would be an A-list candidate, but it's too soon after FitzGerald for a Cuyahoga candidate to lead the ticket. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Armond Budish would be an A-list candidate, but it's too soon after FitzGerald for a Cuyahoga candidate to lead the ticket.  

Heh. Great minds think alike.

I don't think Budish is an A candidate, maybe B+, certainly best of what's left

Tbh, Budish would be stronger than Cordrey. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Maybe I'm a cynic, but Mary Taylor is capitalizing on her sons' opioid addiction to connect with voters.

it seems tasteless

I mean, it was always pretty obvious that she's a terrible person (regardless of what you think of her political views)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Husted goes in favored. How much, IDK, which is why I don't want to prognosticate on the specifics of the general. At this juncture, best to worst Republican opponent for the Democrats goes:

• Taylor
• Renacci
• DeWine
• Husted

In my opinion, OFC.

Completely agree

As do I

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Husted goes in favored. How much, IDK, which is why I don't want to prognosticate on the specifics of the general. At this juncture, best to worst Republican opponent for the Democrats goes:

• Taylor
• Renacci
• DeWine
• Husted

In my opinion, OFC.

Completely agree

As do I

more I think about it, there is something special about husted, hes conservative in the right areas for conservatives, moderate  in the right areas for moderates. If he wasn't a white man he'd probably be one of the biggest rising stars in the national republican party

And Democrats don't mind him that much because we know at the end of the day, he's one of the few Ohio Republicans we can work with.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Husted goes in favored. How much, IDK, which is why I don't want to prognosticate on the specifics of the general. At this juncture, best to worst Republican opponent for the Democrats goes:

• Taylor
• Renacci
• DeWine
• Husted

In my opinion, OFC.

Completely agree

As do I

more I think about it, there is something special about husted, hes conservative in the right areas for conservatives, moderate  in the right areas for moderates. If he wasn't a white man he'd probably be one of the biggest rising stars in the national republican party

And Democrats don't mind him that much because we know at the end of the day, he's one of the few Ohio Republicans we can work with.

Why Democrats think we can work with someone who purged 550,000 voters and has been awful for voting rights is beyond me. Am I the only one who remembers fighting for Golden Week in '14?

No, but he didn't try to screw around with the ballot language on the SB5 repeal, refused to endorse Trump (actually refused, not the BS "I support the nominee" schtick Portman has), and seems at least somewhat open to redistricting reform.  I mean, I wouldn't vote for him for Governor, but I do think he has crossover appeal.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Husted goes in favored. How much, IDK, which is why I don't want to prognosticate on the specifics of the general. At this juncture, best to worst Republican opponent for the Democrats goes:

• Taylor
• Renacci
• DeWine
• Husted

In my opinion, OFC.

Completely agree

As do I

more I think about it, there is something special about husted, hes conservative in the right areas for conservatives, moderate  in the right areas for moderates. If he wasn't a white man he'd probably be one of the biggest rising stars in the national republican party

And Democrats don't mind him that much because we know at the end of the day, he's one of the few Ohio Republicans we can work with.

Why Democrats think we can work with someone who purged 550,000 voters and has been awful for voting rights is beyond me. Am I the only one who remembers fighting for Golden Week in '14?

No, but he didn't try to screw around with the ballot language on the SB5 repeal, refused to endorse Trump (actually refused, not the BS "I support the nominee" schtick Portman has), and seems at least somewhat open to redistricting reform.  I mean, I wouldn't vote for him for Governor, but I do think he has crossover appeal.

Didn't he help nuke that in 2012 when he screwed around with the ballot language?

Hence the word "somewhat," he's moderated on the issue since then, I believe.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

As far as I'm concerned, the only reason to purge a voter from the rolls is in the rare case of actual voter fraud. Brunner acting in the same way doesn't make me respect Husted more, it makes me respect Brunnsr less.

I'm not saying I'd vote for Husted for Governor or anything, but there are definitely far worse in the OH Republican Party.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Former congressman Zack Space is running for Auditor while failed Cincinnati mayoral candidate Rob Richardson is running for Treasurer. Space is a good get for Democrats, though it unfortunately means Lorain Mayor Ritenauer is probably out. Richardson says he was approached about running, which I hope isn't true because Leland is a MUCH better candidate.

Always liked Space, glad he's running!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Former congressman Zack Space is running for Auditor while failed Cincinnati mayoral candidate Rob Richardson is running for Treasurer. Space is a good get for Democrats, though it unfortunately means Lorain Mayor Ritenauer is probably out. Richardson says he was approached about running, which I hope isn't true because Leland is a MUCH better candidate.

Ive been hearing a Sutton/Leland ticket as of late. perhaps thats why?

Ugh, please don't let this be a thing.