OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

But would he be stronger than Leland for Treasurer, in your opinion?

(I'm holding out hope.)

No, Leland is a power fundraiser, I've heard Leland LG talks a lot from D friends. The D's may be considering not putting too much in the treasurers race and focusing on apportionment board. I think Clyde is a terrible candidate to run against, what looks more and more, like LaRose. she's basically the only option there however. Space is solid but not a wow factor to me, you know my opinion on Dettlebach who should probably go after Joyce and have Schiavoni go run against Yost.

I really don't want Sutton/Leland to be a thing. But I don't know any Sutton supporters in the area, so ...

I haven't heard any talk about Sutton/Leland (thank God), but with such a weak GOP field, I can't imagine the Democrats won't at least make a serious play for Treasurer.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

But would he be stronger than Leland for Treasurer, in your opinion?

(I'm holding out hope.)

No, Leland is a power fundraiser, I've heard Leland LG talks a lot from D friends. The D's may be considering not putting too much in the treasurers race and focusing on apportionment board. I think Clyde is a terrible candidate to run against, what looks more and more, like LaRose. she's basically the only option there however. Space is solid but not a wow factor to me, you know my opinion on Dettlebach who should probably go after Joyce and have Schiavoni go run against Yost.

I really don't want Sutton/Leland to be a thing. But I don't know any Sutton supporters in the area, so ...

I haven't heard any talk about Sutton/Leland (thank God), but with such a weak GOP field, I can't imagine the Democrats won't at least make a serious play for Treasurer.

I've heard Sutton/ Leland and Whaley/ Leland. My higher level dem friends have said its a Sutton vs Whaley east vs west battle at this point with schiavoni in a solid third and Pillich ridiculously far behind.

As for treasurer punt, I actually get it, it's a relatively worthless race that's hard to fundraise for and allows them to consolidate up ballot.

I have some contacts with Leland's office and he's probably not going to get on a ticket with Whaley (even Sutton would be more likely, I still think he runs for Treasurer if he runs statewide at all).  From what I've heard the primary is mainly a battle between Schiavoni and Sutton with Whaley in third getting a lot of the Southwestern support Pillich had been expected to pick up.  Pillich is a total non-factor.  Whaley could win, but it's pretty unlikely.  Leland is a pretty ambitious guy and Treasurer would be a better stepping stone for Governor or Senator down the road than LG on a losing ticket.  Another reason Sutton/Leland would be unlikely (though not impossible) is that Schiavoni is on far better terms with the FCDP organization than Sutton (my guess is they'll endorse Schiavoni unless he becomes a non-factor for some reason or people think Sutton's got things wrapped up).  I do agree that this is becoming a very regional primary though, so that may be why you and I have such different perspectives on how the candidates are doing.  For example, I can tell you that Whaley is going to do really well in Hamilton County, but she's probably going to come in a distant third in Franklin County.  This could potentially be a really interesting map, tbh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

But would he be stronger than Leland for Treasurer, in your opinion?

(I'm holding out hope.)

No, Leland is a power fundraiser, I've heard Leland LG talks a lot from D friends. The D's may be considering not putting too much in the treasurers race and focusing on apportionment board. I think Clyde is a terrible candidate to run against, what looks more and more, like LaRose. she's basically the only option there however. Space is solid but not a wow factor to me, you know my opinion on Dettlebach who should probably go after Joyce and have Schiavoni go run against Yost.

I really don't want Sutton/Leland to be a thing. But I don't know any Sutton supporters in the area, so ...

I haven't heard any talk about Sutton/Leland (thank God), but with such a weak GOP field, I can't imagine the Democrats won't at least make a serious play for Treasurer.

I've heard Sutton/ Leland and Whaley/ Leland. My higher level dem friends have said its a Sutton vs Whaley east vs west battle at this point with schiavoni in a solid third and Pillich ridiculously far behind.

As for treasurer punt, I actually get it, it's a relatively worthless race that's hard to fundraise for and allows them to consolidate up ballot.

I have some contacts with Leland's office and he's probably not going to get on a ticket with Whaley (even Sutton would be more likely, I still think he runs for Treasurer if he runs statewide at all).  From what I've heard the primary is mainly a battle between Schiavoni and Sutton with Whaley in third getting a lot of the Southwestern support Pillich had been expected to pick up.  Pillich is a total non-factor.  Whaley could win, but it's pretty unlikely.  Leland is a pretty ambitious guy and Treasurer would be a better stepping stone for Governor or Senator down the road than LG on a losing ticket.  Another reason Sutton/Leland would be unlikely (though not impossible) is that Schiavoni is on far better terms with the FCDP organization than Sutton (my guess is they'll endorse Schiavoni unless he becomes a non-factor for some reason or people think Sutton's got things wrapped up).  I do agree that this is becoming a very regional primary though, so that may be why you and I have such different perspectives on how the candidates are doing.  For example, I can tell you that Whaley is going to do really well in Hamilton County, but she's probably going to come in a distant third in Franklin County.  This could potentially be a really interesting map, tbh.

Schiavoni winning Franklin County would make some sense, due to his time as minority leader. But I can see Sutton cleaning up really well in NEOH due to her time in Congress, and NEOH is still the party's base. Whaley undercutting Pillich in the South makes sense. As of now, I'd bet Schiavoni does the best in Appalachia. Not there are a lot of voters there for the primary, but still.

It'll be interesting to see who Athens and Lucas break for. It seems like Sutton want's to rally the Bernie wing, but Pillich is definitely running the most leftist campaign. I wonder if she might go at Treasurer again when things pick up and it becomes clear she's locked into last place...

I think Pillich blew it regarding any sort of statewide run in 2018, tbh.  I think Northern OH will be split between Sutton and Schiavoni.  It'll be interesting to see who the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party ends up backing.  I still think Schiavoni ultimately wins the primary, but it's really too early to say. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Schiavoni's fundraising is going to be fine. His January report was weak as far as Cash on Hand is concerned, but that doesn't reflect all the money he raised and spent on the Senate Democratic Caucus. Sutton is unfortunately strong, though.

Based on? We haven't seen any kind of big fundraising from him at any point in his career, he's up against a better fundraiser in his own neck of the woods. The Utility workers aren't funding his whole race, and he's raised decent but not great money at individual fundraisers

1: He closed out 2016 having raised over $200k, according to the Secretary of State's website. I'd call that better than decent, given his role. 2: Some State Reps. are considering passing on State Senate runs because they think he'll take all the air out of any potential Senate Dems Caucus fundraising.

Yeah, if Schiavoni's fundraising tanks then sure, he's in trouble.  However, I don't see that happening either.  Schiavoni's a solid fundraiser, not a powerhouse like Leland, but money shouldn't be what sinks him if he loses.  I've heard Schiavoni and Sutton are in a dogfight in the Northeast although I've also heard that he hasn't been doing as well in Northwestern Ohio.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Schiavoni's fundraising is going to be fine. His January report was weak as far as Cash on Hand is concerned, but that doesn't reflect all the money he raised and spent on the Senate Democratic Caucus. Sutton is unfortunately strong, though.

Based on? We haven't seen any kind of big fundraising from him at any point in his career, he's up against a better fundraiser in his own neck of the woods. The Utility workers aren't funding his whole race, and he's raised decent but not great money at individual fundraisers

1: He closed out 2016 having raised over $200k, according to the Secretary of State's website. I'd call that better than decent, given his role. 2: Some State Reps. are considering passing on State Senate runs because they think he'll take all the air out of any potential Senate Dems Caucus fundraising.

200k is not very good for a party leader, guys like Tom Patton and Dave Leland raise 4-5 times as much for state house seats...

In fairness, Tom Patton and especially David Leland are definitely not even remotely normal with regard to fundraising   Leland in particular is a force of nature with regard to fundraising (don't know as much about Patton).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cordray apparently expected to announce before End of September

I thought one guy was speculating that this was the case; I haven't seen any sort of actual confirmation although this would obviously be a game-changer if true.  In other news, Republicans apparently bought the domain name cordray2018.com and made it an anti-Cordray attack site

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cordray apparently expected to announce before End of September

I thought one guy was speculating that this was the case; I haven't seen any sort of actual confirmation although this would obviously be a game-changer if true.  In other news, Republicans apparently bought the domain name cordray2018.com and made it an anti-Cordray attack site

Thoroughly unsurprised. OH GOP was attacking Cordray the minute Clinton lost. Would be very surprised if he got in.

Agreed, I highly doubt he'll run.  TBH, I think he's probably done running for elected office at this point.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cordray apparently expected to announce before End of September

I thought one guy was speculating that this was the case; I haven't seen any sort of actual confirmation although this would obviously be a game-changer if true.  In other news, Republicans apparently bought the domain name cordray2018.com and made it an anti-Cordray attack site

Thoroughly unsurprised. OH GOP was attacking Cordray the minute Clinton lost. Would be very surprised if he got in.

Agreed, I highly doubt he'll run.  TBH, I think he's probably done running for elected office at this point.

He probably is, I wouldn't be surprised to see him on up from the CFPB in next Democratic administration, though.

Unrelated: Have you heard about any Democrats trying to run for Franklin County Auditor next Fall now that Mingo's trying to move up?

Not yet, but I'd be surprised if we don't pick it up.  The only county office here that the FCRP really cares about is County Prosecutor and even that's probably ours as soon as O'Brien's retires/loses (hopefully losing by a larger-than-expected margin in a wave year or something; I want to see O'Brien end his career on a humiliatingly miserable note).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill is also claiming that Cordray is planning on running:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/19/richard-cordray-ohio-governor-2018-240729

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill is also claiming that Cordray is planning on running:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/19/richard-cordray-ohio-governor-2018-240729

I believe O'Neill more than Larkin...

Still don't buy it

Why are you so skeptical on Cordray's run? The guy has nothing else on his plate if he opts not to run for Governor since there's no way in hell Trump keeps him on as cfpb head. Plus you've been saying back in March that he only had one month left to jump into the race.

because i think its too late for him to jump in the race, I think the deadline has passed for him. They are talking about him declaring in september? too late...

I also think this is Bill O'Neill being Bill O'Neill, hes never been loved by the party as a whole, and said he'd run if Cordray wouldnt, but it looks like an excuse for him not to have to hold up that statement.

I agree, but hope springs eternal.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

State Rep. David Leland sat down for an interview with the Ohio Democratic Podcast this week. The podcast has a habit of interviewing candidates for statewide office before they announce, so he might run for Treasurer after all.

*fingers crossed*

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm reserving predictions until after we see the money.

In Other News: Sanders has cut a 30-second ad in support of the upcoming Issue 2, which fixes the amount of money state departments to pay for drugs to the reduced rate paid by the VA.

Also, Renacci will be joining Trump in Youngstown today. While I am reserving predictions, I wouldn't be too surprised if he wound up being a bit of a dark horse for the primary.

Renacci would probably be the weakest Republican in a GE (although a case could definitely be made for that being Taylor), so I'm not complaining

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm reserving predictions until after we see the money.

In Other News: Sanders has cut a 30-second ad in support of the upcoming Issue 2, which fixes the amount of money state departments to pay for drugs to the reduced rate paid by the VA.

Also, Renacci will be joining Trump in Youngstown today. While I am reserving predictions, I wouldn't be too surprised if he wound up being a bit of a dark horse for the primary.

I meant predictions for money raised

Ah.

Pillich will be the weakest Democrat, and Renacci will do surprisingly well. Husted will have raised the most on either side.

Renacci has a lot of money though, so I'd be careful to distinguish between actual money raised and money he loaned his campaign.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The GOP is so scared of this guy it's unbelievable.

The OH GOP has been going after Cordray hard since November 9th.

I mean hes the only one who can really compete with Husted/Dewine right now

Schiavoni could definitely beat DeWine.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

Yeah, a few:

1) Those Husted numbers

2) This confirms my long-held belief that Renacci was always a weak incumbent.  Those are some embarrassing numbers for him for the reason Rjjr77 mentioned. 

3) Taylor should really drop out and run for Renacci's seat (although tbh, I'm not convinced she'd even win that primary and could even see her coming in third, but her odds would still be much better)

4) Dettelbach's doing great!  Space just got in so I'm not worried about him either.

5) LaRose is posting solid numbers, but Clyde's were a lot better than I expected.  I was expecting her to post something like $150,000.  Maybe we have a shot at winning this race after all

6) Yost and especially Faber's numbers were definitely underwhelming

7) Pillich is obviously a surprise, but the big story (sorry to bury the lead ) is how bad these numbers were for Sutton.  I'm not ready to say she's a third wheel or anything, but if her next fundraising report looks anything like this then she's done.  Now I really have a hard time seeing Leland accepting any sort of LG offer from her (didn't expect it to happen either way, but my mind is now a bit more at ease) 

Mingo's numbers are also much weaker than I expected.  I wonder if the ORP finally figured out that nominating him would be a gift to the ODP.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

Yeah, a few:

1) Those Husted numbers

2) This confirms my long-held belief that Renacci was always a weak incumbent.  Those are some embarrassing numbers for him for the reason Rjjr77 mentioned. 

3) Taylor should really drop out and run for Renacci's seat (although tbh, I'm not convinced she'd even win that primary and could even see her coming in third, but her odds would still be much better)

4) Dettelbach's doing great!  Space just got in so I'm not worried about him either.

5) LaRose is posting solid numbers, but Clyde's were a lot better than I expected.  I was expecting her to post something like $150,000.  Maybe we have a shot at winning this race after all

6) Yost and especially Faber's numbers were definitely underwhelming

7) Pillich is obviously a surprise, but the big story (sorry to bury the lead ) is how bad these numbers were for Sutton.  I'm not ready to say she's a third wheel or anything, but if her next fundraising report looks anything like this then she's done.  Now I really have a hard time seeing Leland accepting any sort of LG offer from her (didn't expect it to happen either way, but my mind is now a bit more at ease) 

Mingo's numbers are also much weaker than I expected.  I wonder if the ORP finally figured out that nominating him would be a gift to the ODP.

Someday I'm looking for you to spill the beans on what your know--or have at least heard about--Mingo's skeletons.

Its pretty well known, and pretty bad (not the worst) but also I know I wouldnt pump rumors that arent publicly proven.

All the accusations are in The Dispatch, after all.

If ORP does screening any better than ODP, and I got a feeling they do -- recent incidents in Butler County aside -- Mingo's probably on the outs.

all the accusations are not in the dispatch, quite a few arent.

I mean, I've seen a most of them there so...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

Yeah, a few:

1) Those Husted numbers

2) This confirms my long-held belief that Renacci was always a weak incumbent.  Those are some embarrassing numbers for him for the reason Rjjr77 mentioned. 

3) Taylor should really drop out and run for Renacci's seat (although tbh, I'm not convinced she'd even win that primary and could even see her coming in third, but her odds would still be much better)

4) Dettelbach's doing great!  Space just got in so I'm not worried about him either.

5) LaRose is posting solid numbers, but Clyde's were a lot better than I expected.  I was expecting her to post something like $150,000.  Maybe we have a shot at winning this race after all

6) Yost and especially Faber's numbers were definitely underwhelming

7) Pillich is obviously a surprise, but the big story (sorry to bury the lead ) is how bad these numbers were for Sutton.  I'm not ready to say she's a third wheel or anything, but if her next fundraising report looks anything like this then she's done.  Now I really have a hard time seeing Leland accepting any sort of LG offer from her (didn't expect it to happen either way, but my mind is now a bit more at ease) 

Mingo's numbers are also much weaker than I expected.  I wonder if the ORP finally figured out that nominating him would be a gift to the ODP.

Someday I'm looking for you to spill the beans on what your know--or have at least heard about--Mingo's skeletons.

Its pretty well known, and pretty bad (not the worst) but also I know I wouldnt pump rumors that arent publicly proven.

All the accusations are in The Dispatch, after all.

If ORP does screening any better than ODP, and I got a feeling they do -- recent incidents in Butler County aside -- Mingo's probably on the outs.

all the accusations are not in the dispatch, quite a few arent.

I mean, I've seen a most of them there so...

There might be a few you don't know then

I said "most of them"   I'm only talking about the ones that have been confirmed in the media.  Obviously, there's other stuff too.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Went to a meeting with Zack Space a few days ago. Pretty good on the whole. Brought up the fact he'll likely be the only Appalachian on either ticket, and that he supports "clean coal." That made someone laugh out loud when he said it, but it also looks like he has the UMW endorsement on lock, and that could deliver on the margins if the top of the ticket. He also seems to believe Cordray is running.

The bolded part is obviously very interesting, to say the least.  Space locking up the UMW endorsement is a big deal too (especially in a lower profile row office race like this) and since he's running for Auditor, I'm fine with Space being pro-coal if it helps him win.  

If Leland and Cordrey run, the ODP could have a pretty strong ticket on this cycle for once (even without Cordrey, we could do a lot worse than Schiavoni tbh).  Assuming Leland runs, I could easily see us picking up the Treasurer, AG, and Auditor's offices (especially if Yost and Faber's next fundraising reports are as underwhelming as their last ones).  Now if only we could just recruit Todd Portune for OH-1, Nicholas Celebrezze for OH-16, and find solid wave insurance candidates to run against Mike Turner and David Joyce...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Disgraced AG Marc Dann vaguely leaves the door open to running again]vaguely leaves the door open to running again, now that his law license has been re-instated, though its unlikely the party would have him back.

lol

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm hearing Leland has ruled out running for Treasurer. A real damn shame.

F***

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm hearing Leland has ruled out running for Treasurer. A real damn shame.

F***

Same, really. I'm just glad we've fielded credible candidates in both the down-ticket apportionment board positions. I suppose he could still be Sutton or Whaley's Lieutenant Governor candidate since they need to file with someone.

There's also now, evidently, polling for Cordray/Beatty, which seems like an awful idea, given its Columbus-centric nature.

Beatty? They are really desperate to have a black LG, that's a weak ticket.

Well, specifically, a Black woman. Though I agree, it's weak. I get the impetus, though, since it looks like the only Black candidate on the ticket is going to the candidate for Treasurer. (The failed Cinci Mayoral candidate.)

In Other News: The Springer rumor mills keep chugging away, with Springer appearing at a Labor Day event in support of Fight For Fifteen; frmr Gov. Dick Celeste's son has joined Sutton's campaign as a co-chair; and frmr State Senator Lou Gentile has landed at Vorys, Sater, Seymour and Pease, where he was welcomed by frmr State Senate Pres. Tome Niehouse. Vorys is the same law firm frmr Congressman Zack Space landed at after beeing booted from office, and his current place of work as he runs statewide. Me thinks we haven't seen the last of Lou Gentile. (Thank God.)

I mean they could go recruit Paula Hicks-Hudson, Emily Sykes or Alicia Reece if they are that desperate for a black female, at least bring geographical diversity to a ticket

Or even Marica Fudge, who has a great personality.

*snip*

I really hope that was sarcasm

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm hearing Leland has ruled out running for Treasurer. A real damn shame.

F***

Same, really. I'm just glad we've fielded credible candidates in both the down-ticket apportionment board positions. I suppose he could still be Sutton or Whaley's Lieutenant Governor candidate since they need to file with someone.

There's also now, evidently, polling for Cordray/Beatty, which seems like an awful idea, given its Columbus-centric nature.

Beatty? They are really desperate to have a black LG, that's a weak ticket.

Well, specifically, a Black woman. Though I agree, it's weak. I get the impetus, though, since it looks like the only Black candidate on the ticket is going to the candidate for Treasurer. (The failed Cinci Mayoral candidate.)

In Other News: The Springer rumor mills keep chugging away, with Springer appearing at a Labor Day event in support of Fight For Fifteen; frmr Gov. Dick Celeste's son has joined Sutton's campaign as a co-chair; and frmr State Senator Lou Gentile has landed at Vorys, Sater, Seymour and Pease, where he was welcomed by frmr State Senate Pres. Tome Niehouse. Vorys is the same law firm frmr Congressman Zack Space landed at after beeing booted from office, and his current place of work as he runs statewide. Me thinks we haven't seen the last of Lou Gentile. (Thank God.)

I mean they could go recruit Paula Hicks-Hudson, Emily Sykes or Alicia Reece if they are that desperate for a black female, at least bring geographical diversity to a ticket

Or even Marica Fudge, who has a great personality.

*snip*

I really hope that was sarcasm

Did you see her on Colbert back when she was the Chair of the CBC? If she can evoke that on the trail, I'd say she's great.

Oh boy...she really goes the extra mile in treating her staff horribly.  And she has a reputation within ODP (or at least certain circles) for being incredibly difficult to work with and is pretty widely disliked as a result to the point that there were rumors of a serious primary challenge for a few cycles simply b/c of how obnoxious she was to...well...everyone.  It's one thing when you treat your staff horribly (which is really bad, but in politics that's not really taken too seriously outside of said politician's own office), John Kerry, Chuck Hagel, Joe Sestak, Sheila Jackson Lee, Barbara Mikulski, and John Kasich are/were all notorious for this and it never caused them any serious problems.  However, when you're an a**hole to other politicians, donors, and non-staff folks whose support you need and go around treating them like incompetent hired help, then you run into problems. 

I wouldn't put much stock in the Cordray/Beatty rumors.  1) I still don't think Cordray's running for Governor, 2) If he does then he won't pick Beatty as his running-mate, 3) I think LG would be a step down for Beatty even if she was on a winning ticket, so she probably wouldn't accept anyway, 4) Even if Cordrey for some ridiculous reason needed a running-mate from Franklin County (a.k.a. Cordray country ), it'd be someone like Zach Klein (who actually might make a really good LG pick, the dude's definitely a potential rising star to watch and may well be a top-tier statewide candidate in another cycle or two, although he's really a county/local-level guy right now). 

I suppose the silver lining about Leland not running for Treasurer is that the Republican field is kinda weak and there are definitely other Democrats who could run instead (and still win, especially if Mingo is the Republican nominee).  I doubt Richardson or whatever that joke candidate's name is will be the Democratic nominee.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This article is almost three weeks old, but it speculates that if Cordray has any intention of resigning so he can run for governor, he may be waiting to do so until he can sign off on a new payday lending rule:

http://www.cleveland.com/nation/index.ssf/2017/08/if_richard_cordray_resigns_to.html

That seems unlikely to happen in a week.

In Other News: The new Franklin County Treasurer, Cheryl Brook Sullivan, likely won't be able to take her seat next week as no one is willing to bond her for two reasons. 1: A twenty-year-old felony Cocaine conviction, 2: Past bankruptcy convictions.

Good

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At least Springer was mayor of a large city. Wouldn't be as embarrassing as Kid Rock.

It'd be pretty d*** embarrassing, believe you me.