GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Even with Scott Holcomb, I don't think this seat flips and given what a poor fit Osoff is for this district, I don't think it's a particularly good test of the national mood either.  With Holcomb, the margin would tell the tale.  What you'd want as a test-case for the down-ballot effect would be a strong Democrat against a weak Republican in an open seat race (a suburban or exurban version of Jean Schmit vs. Paul Hackett).  I don't think Handel is as weak as Schmit or even Oberweiss, but I agree with Maxwell that she's capable of running a "does everything wrong" campaign.  Holcomb could probably turn that into a razor-thin loss and there's a former (?) state representative here who'd won a very Republican district in a special not too long ago.  He might work too, but Osoff is simply the wrong guy and he may not even make the run-off.  If the Republicans win the run-off by single-digits against someone as weak as Osoff, they should be absolutely terrified, but I don't think we can read too much into it if Osoff loses by a large margin.  

MT's seat depends on the candidates, but is a potentially a decent sign of how non-rust belt rural whites are feeling.  If Curtis is nominated, it won't tell us anything, but a Quaist vs. Giafonte (or however the name is spelled, I'm in a rush ) could be very instructive about the aforementioned group, especially if the DCCC gives Quaist the support he needs.  Like Handel, Gianforte is no Mean Jean, but he is still very capable of running a piss-poor campaign (it's part of why he lost the Governor's race ).  

Anyway, hopefully we'll get some better test-cases down the road as even Montana is hardly an ideal district.  If the Democrats win either of these, it should terrify Republicans as neither should really even be close on paper.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Even with Scott Holcomb, I don't think this seat flips and given what a poor fit Osoff is for this district, I don't think it's a particularly good test of the national mood either.  With Holcomb, the margin would tell the tale.  What you'd want as a test-case for the down-ballot effect would be a strong Democrat against a weak Republican in an open seat race (a suburban or exurban version of Jean Schmit vs. Paul Hackett).  I don't think Handel is as weak as Schmit or even Oberweiss, but I agree with Maxwell that she's capable of running a "does everything wrong" campaign.  Holcomb could probably turn that into a razor-thin loss and there's a former (?) state representative here who'd won a very Republican district in a special not too long ago.  He might work too, but Osoff is simply the wrong guy and he may not even make the run-off.  If the Republicans win the run-off by single-digits against someone as weak as Osoff, they should be absolutely terrified, but I don't think we can read too much into it if Osoff loses by a large margin.  

MT's seat depends on the candidates, but is a potentially a decent sign of how non-rust belt rural whites are feeling.  If Curtis is nominated, it won't tell us anything, but a Quaist vs. Giafonte (or however the name is spelled, I'm in a rush ) could be very instructive about the aforementioned group, especially if the DCCC gives Quaist the support he needs.  Like Handel, Gianforte is no Mean Jean, but he is still very capable of running a piss-poor campaign (it's part of why he lost the Governor's race ).  

Anyway, hopefully we'll get some better test-cases down the road as even Montana is hardly an ideal district.  If the Democrats win either of these, it should terrify Republicans as neither should really even be close on paper.

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

Indeed and while it is too early to say for sure, I'll be surprised if the Democrats don't gain a massive amount of ground in the rust belt barring weak candidate recruitment.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Even with Scott Holcomb, I don't think this seat flips and given what a poor fit Osoff is for this district, I don't think it's a particularly good test of the national mood either.  With Holcomb, the margin would tell the tale.  What you'd want as a test-case for the down-ballot effect would be a strong Democrat against a weak Republican in an open seat race (a suburban or exurban version of Jean Schmit vs. Paul Hackett).  I don't think Handel is as weak as Schmit or even Oberweiss, but I agree with Maxwell that she's capable of running a "does everything wrong" campaign.  Holcomb could probably turn that into a razor-thin loss and there's a former (?) state representative here who'd won a very Republican district in a special not too long ago.  He might work too, but Osoff is simply the wrong guy and he may not even make the run-off.  If the Republicans win the run-off by single-digits against someone as weak as Osoff, they should be absolutely terrified, but I don't think we can read too much into it if Osoff loses by a large margin.  

MT's seat depends on the candidates, but is a potentially a decent sign of how non-rust belt rural whites are feeling.  If Curtis is nominated, it won't tell us anything, but a Quaist vs. Giafonte (or however the name is spelled, I'm in a rush ) could be very instructive about the aforementioned group, especially if the DCCC gives Quaist the support he needs.  Like Handel, Gianforte is no Mean Jean, but he is still very capable of running a piss-poor campaign (it's part of why he lost the Governor's race ).  

Anyway, hopefully we'll get some better test-cases down the road as even Montana is hardly an ideal district.  If the Democrats win either of these, it should terrify Republicans as neither should really even be close on paper.

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

Indeed and while it is too early to say for sure, I'll be surprised if the Democrats don't gain a massive amount of ground in the rust belt barring weak candidate recruitment.

It's ridiculous how the left thinks their elitist strategy of attacking Trump voters as evil will amount to gains in states that voted for him....

It's ridiculous how the right thinks their elitist strategy of attacking Obama voters as evil will amount to gains in states for him...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

Isn't that simply due to the fact that most of these districts are much more Democratic down ballot than at the presidential level?

Anyway, looks like GA-06 will be the first big opportunity for Democrats. It would be pretty bad for them if they lost both MT and GA. Likewise, Republicans should win at least one of the two - GA is a much better bellwether than MT, though.

I don't think Democrats losing both is even that bad, tbh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean to be fair, they did make Osoff look like a complete idiot, but the fact that this was what they went with is still telling.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean to be fair, they did make Osoff look like a complete idiot, but the fact that this was what they went with is still telling.

Most people would look like morons if you took them at their "having fun at college" or "making goofy videos" part of their life.

I agree 100% and I'm not saying this ad would make me vote against Osoff, but fair or not they did make Osoff look like an idiot (certainly to someone who knows little about him).  What I'm saying is this is not a district where the Democrat will ever get the benefit of the doubt on anything and a lot of people are hypocrites when it comes to judging folks for this sort of thing imo (especially older folks).  I could see this ad being pretty effective with Never Trump Republicans who'd leap at any excuse to rationalize voting against Osoff, but would reluctantly vote for Osoff if said excuse failed to materialize.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean to be fair, they did make Osoff look like a complete idiot, but the fact that this was what they went with is still telling.

Most people would look like morons if you took them at their "having fun at college" or "making goofy videos" part of their life.

I agree 100% and I'm not saying this ad would make me vote against Osoff, but fair or not they did make Osoff look like an idiot (certainly to someone who knows little about him).  What I'm saying is this is not a district where the Democrat will ever get the benefit of the doubt on anything and a lot of people are hypocrites when it comes to judging folks for this sort of thing imo (especially older folks).  I could see this ad being pretty effective with Never Trump Republicans who'd leap at any excuse to rationalize voting against Osoff, but would reluctantly vote for Osoff if said excuse failed to materialize.

By your reasoning, literally any attack ad period would probably be enough to win those types of voters over.

Not necessarily, this is just my gut sense, but I feel like this is probably one that is especially effective given that you have more than a few Republicans with a "get off my lawn attitude" toward young people.  It also it depends on how old Osoff is; the longer ago this was, the less effective it is (and more pathetic it makes the Republicans look).  Anyway, I hope you're right; I would love to see Osoff win or at least come really close.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean to be fair, they did make Osoff look like a complete idiot, but the fact that this was what they went with is still telling.

Most people would look like morons if you took them at their "having fun at college" or "making goofy videos" part of their life.

I agree 100% and I'm not saying this ad would make me vote against Osoff, but fair or not they did make Osoff look like an idiot (certainly to someone who knows little about him).  What I'm saying is this is not a district where the Democrat will ever get the benefit of the doubt on anything and a lot of people are hypocrites when it comes to judging folks for this sort of thing imo (especially older folks).  I could see this ad being pretty effective with Never Trump Republicans who'd leap at any excuse to rationalize voting against Osoff, but would reluctantly vote for Osoff if said excuse failed to materialize.

It shows him at a costume party and singing on a stage...how the heck is that something only an idiot would do?   Are all people who go to costume parties idiots or all people who sign on a stage idiots?   That's complete bull crap,  he was young at some point in his life, so what?

That ad has to be the one of the most pathetic attacks I've ever seen.   If Republicans will vote for Trump but not Ossoff because of that then they really have lost their minds.

I agree with all of this, but the fact is that we still need significant right-wing Republican crossover votes in this district.  Sure, it's unfair that this stuff will be perceived as him being an idiot or whatever, but this is a very Republican (and presumably very partisan) district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Also, considering that most Republicans under 30 are extremely socially awkward basement-dwelling Anime and sci-fi fans, is nerd-shaming really such a smart strategy?

You post on Atlas Forum; you're really in no position to be calling anyone a socially awkward nerd.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

LMAO who is dumb enough to use Trafalgar? Also, no way Trump is +10 in a district barely to the right of the national popular vote.

Disagree, in my anecdotal observations its seemed like the educated, "Never Trump" Republicans have been the first to come back to him.  I imagine that GA-6 is full of such types. 

That hasn't been my experience at all, but I could see it being different in the South than the Midwest.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I always thought this would be the toughest lift due to the type of voters Osoff would've had to win over.  I can only go by my anecdotal experiences in OH, but I know plenty of affluent, educated suburban Republicans who - while they plan to switch from Trump to whoever the Democratic nominee is in 2020 - don't blame any Republicans outside the Trump administration for the current state of the nation.  If turnout is depressed among this crowd, you'll get a Democratic wave, but if they turnout, most of them are not going to vote Democratic.  The affluent, suburban Republicans in Franklin County who reluctantly backed Trump in 2016 (and even many Never Trump ones) are extremely inelastic Republicans and I'm sure this is even more true in places like GA-6. 

This isn't to say we shouldn't target suburban seats, but they won't be enough on their own (it's good to compete in rural, suburban, urban and any other kinds of districts where we can realistically put a seat in play, even if it's just wave insurance).  Depressed Republican turnout in affluent suburbs across America and strong candidate recruitment will be more important than how many Never Trump suburban Republicans we can get to vote Democratic against non-Trump Republicans (hint: it won't be nearly enough without depressed Republican turnout). 

I get why the DCCC is competing in GA-6 and it wasn't a bad call, but I also think they should've been much more careful about managing expectations.  Not too long ago, I even convinced myself Osoff might just miss the runoff, but realistically my gut tells me he's looking at 40-42% on Tuesday.  The only Republican I could see Osoff even having a chance against is Bob Gray, but he'll likely face Handel in the runoff and while neither her nor Hill are particularly good candidates, they're generic and inoffensive enough to the type of Republicans in the district who backed Clinton that Osoff wouldn't stand a chance in the run-off.  Handel's incompetence might keep things close-ish, but I could even see Hill winning by low double-digits.  The other issue, and this is a recurring issue for House Democrats, is recruitment.  Despite the hype, Osoff is neither the strongest candidate we could've run nor is he the right type of candidate to flip a district like this.  That said, I think this district is a bridge too far this cycle (in 4-8 years that will probably change though) and while we should've helped Osoff a bit, building this up as some sort of canary-in-the-coal mine/marquee race was an unforced error.  I maintain (as I always have) that while losing here and/or MT-AL should scare Republicans, it doesn't mean all that much of the Democrats lose both (especially GA-6 which may in hindsight have never been winnable in the first place). 

But of course, mainstream Democrats will play chicken little and then make some weak excuse for why this was a "fluke," Republicans will pretend they have a mandate in the most obnoxious way possible, and Berniecrats will try to pretend this is some sort of damning indictment of Tom Perez (LOL)/"proof" that suburban seats are all fool's gold and we can only win by running fire-breathing liberals in such noted bastions of socialism as KS-4 and WV-3   In case, you can't tell I'm pretty annoyed with the whole situation

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is kind of dumb, but whenever I hear about Bob Gray I always think about how in It Pennywise always introduces him herself to his victims as "Mr. Bob Gray."

Same, also FTFY

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Well, we're not winning in Montana now, so here's to Handel hopefully pissing away the seat.

I don't like the optics of winning GA-06 but not Montana, but then again, if that happens, it is now easier to blame it on Quist's flaws as a candidate (and Handel's flaws) than just "Muh Panera Bread."

I don't think Quist is totally done though.

I like the optics of successfully electing a liberal in a right-wing southern house district just fine

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hasn't he spent more money on a House race than any previous Democrat? What a whiner. This is as bad as Hillary begging for 1 dollar.

If Bernie Sanders was the Democratic nominee in 2016, I'm sure you'd find a way to interpret it as neo-liberals cementing their hold on the party.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why do Republicans keep talking about Democrats stealing seats? It's an election, where candidates try to appeal to voters and get elected. Is it any wonder why there is so little faith in government when we have one party whose primary message is denigrating government at any turn, on top of sowing doubt and stoking fear about our elections?

In fairness, you'll often hear the same sort of talk if a white candidate ever has a shot at winning a Democratic primary in a minority-majority district.  And of course, we also heard it when Espailatt was running against Rengel 2012 and 2014.