2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sessions (for now) looks set to pick up a decent share* of Clinton 16 voters. It's important to note that many voters in TX-32 went for Clinton but generally voted GOP downballot; these are the people who will determine the race, ancestrally Republican suburban voters. Not every one of them is rebelling in 2018, at least on House level, especially if a good incumbent is on the ballot. Sessions certainly looks set to have something of a competitive race considering the national environment but I remain deeply skeptical he'd actually lose at this stage. I may revise this if I see fit later on.

He could certainly hold on, and I view Texas House races with more skepticism than most, but I don't think this is good to go by. A lot of Republican House Reps won in Clinton seats, and many won very comfortably or by landslides. So there isn't anything unique about Sessions in that regard. Historically speaking, their performance in a past election is not the best guide to their future performance, particularly if there is a switch in control of the White House. 2006 and 2010 is littered with examples of Republicans and Democrats who won comfortably or by landslides in the previous election, only to get wiped out in the next.

This is a seat predominantly populated by country club Republicans.
Moreover, many of the seats that flipped in 2010 were areas like VA-09 and MS-04 that flipped on presidential level years or even decades ago. I don't think it's really a good comparison since TX-32 is not as far along that process. The area covering TX-32 probably went Democratic on presidential level for the first time since the 60s just two years ago.
Sessions can obviously lose but this is probably 1) among the places the Republican congress is relatively the most popular, tax cuts etc; and 2) a seat that, if it flips by a truly significant margin, it's a sign the bottom has really fell out for the GOP.

It’ll be a really tough fight and he could definitely win (really a shame Rawlings didn’t run), but I think Sessions will narrowly lose by something like 1-3%.  He’s a great fundraiser and a relatively strong campaigner, but he’s not all that good a fit for the seat right now (he’s a rabidly partisan SoCon bomb-thrower rather than a calm, Starbucks bigot with radically right-wing economic views).  Plus, there’s gonna be a really big anti-Trump swing here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The main benefit is that she’ll get DCCC money flowing into the race, as they tried to persuade her to run in the past. Having just an insurance candidate probably isn’t good enough to take down Katko, Perez Williams is a serious candidate who has political connections and name recognition, which the other candidates don’t have.

Nah, she's wave insurance and that's perfectly fine.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

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This is an R+8 district. Is McCready an especially strong candidate, or is he just the unwitting beneficiary of #resistance money?

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If they weren’t panicking before, they should probably panic now.

He also appears to have a well funded primary challenger.

This appears to be one of the NC Dem targets, if we can call any of the back row reach seat 'targets.' McReady is one of the Dem Veterans that are so classic this cycle. The seat also has the right combination of strong Clinton swings in the Suburbs and right-leaning SE Charlotte, and Obama dem areas in the Eastern part of the seat.

For every reason here though, the seat has not gone unmissed. The strong R primary challenger (Pittenger has faced strong primaries before), the fund gaps, the demographics - both Cook and Sabato have been moving the seat since January and now sits at Lean R.

I’d say Budd’s seat is Toss-up tilt-D (closer to Lean D than tilt-R, I don’t use Pure Tossup) and Pittenger’s is tilt-D (closer tossup tilt-R than Lean D) if he’s renominated and Lean R (right on the border of Likely R, just like Holding’s seat) if Pittenger loses the Republican primary.  At the very least, Ted Budd is probably going down (probably by mid-to-high single digits).  Pittenger is a remarkably weak incumbent with serious corruption scandals who has also made at least one extremely racist gaffe IIRC.  On a different note, Richard Burr is incredibly lucky that he isn’t on the ballot this year.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

I've had this seat at Lean D for a while, I'm glad I now have something more than a hunch to back that up.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is anyone else feeling bothered by the fact that an anti-Pelosi Democrat won the IL-12 Democratic nomination, which is a District that voted for Obama twice, and elected a Pelosi supporter in 2012.

Democrats should not be lowering standards like this is in these types of Districts.

No. Brendan Kelly is a stunning recruit.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Districts where the top Democrat outraised the top Republican, had more Cash on Hand, did both, or came within $100K:



Some notable competitive districts missing from this chart:

CA-10, CA-21, IL-06, GA-06, MN-03, PA-01, VA-10, WA-08.

I don't think Democrats win VA-10 or WA-08. I think there are more Republican districts that are way easier than those two, highly expensive markets with strong, moderate GOP candidates. It simply would make more sense for democrats to target weak incumbents in cheap media markets even if they are nominally more R in regards to CPVI.

You guys might get really lucky and hold WA-8, but I highly doubt it.  VA-10 is long gone for you guys though, the question is whether or not Comstock loses by double-digits.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Districts where the top Democrat outraised the top Republican, had more Cash on Hand, did both, or came within $100K:



Some notable competitive districts missing from this chart:

CA-10, CA-21, IL-06, GA-06, MN-03, PA-01, VA-10, WA-08.

I don't think Democrats win VA-10 or WA-08. I think there are more Republican districts that are way easier than those two, highly expensive markets with strong, moderate GOP candidates. It simply would make more sense for democrats to target weak incumbents in cheap media markets even if they are nominally more R in regards to CPVI.

Comstock is not a moderate.

The Washington Post disagrees.

And?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CA-48: Democrat Rachel Payne drops out to lower the likelihood of an R-vs-R runoff.  It's too late for her name to come off the ballot, but she will no longer actively campaign.  Source

Glorious news!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/992475673229918208

How is NJ-2 only tilt D?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/992475673229918208

How is NJ-2 only tilt D?

It’ll depend on the primary, which Van Drew will probably win. If Tanzie Youngblood (an African American woman from Woolwich in western part of the district) wins, she may have a tougher time getting Obama-Trump Democrats, and older Democrats to vote for her. 18% of the district is over age 65, compared to the nation as a whole (14.5% over age 65). This district is sprawled out and rural, so tilt D seems appropriate until the primaries are over in June.

Van Drew is a lock though and will likely get somewhere between 85-93% in the primary at worst.  Youngblood isn't any even remotely serious candidate nor would she have a chance of being the nominee even if Van Drew weren't running.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/999373426795204630

Scandal watch!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/999373426795204630

Scandal watch!

Any good dem recruit in this district?

Nah the dems did a convention and proceeded to nominate someone with skeletons. That said, if the seat becomes open, I suspect that nominee gets dropped like a rock in favor of Perrellio.

They won’t do that, lol. The Democrats already held their caucuses and nominated their candidate, they could ask her to step aside, but she won’t.

I agree that Cockburn wouldn't drop out; she's an anti-Semitic bigot, so clearly rationale thought isn't her strong suite.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/999373426795204630

Scandal watch!

Any good dem recruit in this district?

Nah the dems did a convention and proceeded to nominate someone with skeletons. That said, if the seat becomes open, I suspect that nominee gets dropped like a rock in favor of Perrellio.

They won’t do that, lol. The Democrats already held their caucuses and nominated their candidate, they could ask her to step aside, but she won’t.

I agree that Cockburn wouldn't drop out; she's an anti-Semitic bigot, so clearly rationale thought isn't her strong suite.

Is she really anti-semitic, or just critical of Israel?

I'm genuinely curious.

Really anti-Semitic

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Any chance this works?

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article212306569.html

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

While LimoLOLbral (Andrew) concern trolls about Tanzie Youngblood and Dan Helmer, the non-CA primary I’m legitimately worried about is ME-2. Maine Democrats always seem to nominate horrendous people, so let’s see if something changes. Any Mariners have any news on the ground in that race?

what is wrong with helmer? the bad ad doesnt represent him being a rhodes scholar

He’s pretty reckless. He compared Trump to Bin Laden, and he makes comments like this quite often. One day he may say something even worse and torpedo our chances in VA-10. It’s quite blue nowadays, but it has a highly educated and informed electorate, where a Todd Akin-like comment by Dan Helmer would probably hand over the election to Comstock.

Yeah, Wexton is easily our best candidate here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

lol CA-50 was always going to be quite a stretch even with Hunter's scandals, Najjar was the better candidate of the two anyways. Butner seemed very overhyped.

Both were overhyped imo.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1006570796863586304

CA-04 is the most interesting inclusion here to me.

MO-02 and NY-11 are also strange picks, though on could argue NY-11 already looks like it will be an interesting race post-primary. There are a few interesting districts that are missing: WA-08, anything from Florida, IL-12, IL-14, KS-02, KY-06, VA-10, NJ-02, NJ-07, and ME-02 to name a few.

The only questionable pick I'm seeing is WI-01.  CA-04 is a potential sleeper race as McClintock is a very weak and extremely right-wing incumbent who (IIRC) carpetbagged all the way up from LA to run here in 2008.  Plus, there seemed to be an exceptionally strong backlash here against the attempt to repeal Obamacare. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1006570796863586304

CA-04 is the most interesting inclusion here to me.

MO-02 and NY-11 are also strange picks, though on could argue NY-11 already looks like it will be an interesting race post-primary. There are a few interesting districts that are missing: WA-08, anything from Florida, IL-12, IL-14, KS-02, KY-06, VA-10, NJ-02, NJ-07, and ME-02 to name a few.

The only questionable pick I'm seeing is WI-01.  CA-04 is a potential sleeper race as McClintock is a very weak and extremely right-wing incumbent who (IIRC) carpetbagged all the way up from LA to run here in 2008.  Plus, there seemed to be an exceptionally strong backlash here against the attempt to repeal Obamacare. 

Randy Bryce is literally the favorite to win the race.

In what way?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Realistically are all four really competitive? I know VA-10 and VA-2 are but the other two seem to be reach seats

VA-7 is tilt-D and more likely to flip than VA-2 which is Lean R.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

lol CA-50 was always going to be quite a stretch even with Hunter's scandals, Najjar was the better candidate of the two anyways. Butner seemed very overhyped.

Fun fact about Najjar: Apparently his grandfather, Mohammed Youssef al-Najjar (a.k.a. Abu Youssef) was third in command of the PLO and also helped plan the Munich massacre as Black September’s operations chief.  

In fairness, I don’t know what Ammar’s views are and hopefully he’s denounced his grandfather’s terrorism, but in light of this, Butner was definitely a stronger candidate b/c this is definitely gonna get brought up if Hunter feels he’s in any danger.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Should we get excited that Archie Parnell outraised his opponent?

No

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

DCCC finally put Kara Eastman on the Red to Blue list:

https://twitter.com/karaforcongress/status/1024689712316010497

OMFG, finnaly!


.....but this does prove that the DCCC was not supporting her for petty reasons...

How so?  It could easily mean she is a very weak candidate whom they think might get swept in by the wave.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Oh my god the Virginia Republicans are back on MS-13.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's been fairly evident for some time that Hunter was likely to be indicted before election day.

Yeah, but it’s more of a mess than Collins’ arrest:

1) Hunter wouldn’t turn himself in, so a federal judge had to put out an arrest warrant
2) Hunter’s opponent is a solid B-list candidate and seems to be running a fairly energetic campaign
3) Hunter is trying to throw his wife under the bus; I’m sure that will play well
4) The Pubs can’t replace Hunter on the ballot.