absentee/early vote thread, part 2

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is there someone to follow for CO EV or is the ballot-only thingie so centralized that we only get 1 number each day?

Michael McDonald and Nick Riccardi seem to each talk a good bit about CO. I know very little about when/how often during the day they have access to new numbers, though.

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Colorado: Democrats 443,517   36.9%,   Republicans   420,330   35.0% or 1.9% difference of around 23,187 vote lead for the democrats.

Way to close.

Didn't Romney end up winning Colorado's early vote in 2012?

By 2%, in fact.

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Nick Riccardi Verified account
‏@NickRiccardi

New CO early balloting numbers: Ds 508, 938; Rs 494,757; UAFs 383,275 #copolitics
36-35-27%

Almost 10k R plus margin in Colorado since last update.

Yes, Republicans have been gaining constantly -- but that's to be expected. Registration is even in CO and Republicans led in returned ballots in 2012. D lead of 3~ points wasn't sustainable. Numbers are still good for Clinton obviously.  

The people who "know" CO have guessed that Trump needs to hit R+7 to be competitive.

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We've broken the 33 million EV mark.

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Great news from FL! Hundreds of historically black college or university (HBCU) students took to the polls in Durham and Daytona Beach on Wednesday to kick off early voting on their respective campus.

Link: https://hbcubuzz.com/2016/11/hundreds-hbcu-students-march-polls-early-voting/

An inspiring image. Best of luck to all black organizations today and through the election!

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Update from Ralston:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Here's the lead:

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Voting in Clark looks strong again today. Ralston has predicted every day of the week perfectly so far. Guru's at it again:

@RalstonReports  8m8 minutes ago

6,500 voted in Clark today by 11 AM. About same pace as Wednesday. Stay tuned.

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If they get to 13% then you pretty much put FL in her column.

That's what Schale has his models at, so he says. He currently believes that they will hit and slightly exceed that mark.

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Clinton's projected margin has rebounded a little, back to 6% (or, more appropriately, -1% from the poll it's pegged to).

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it's simple.

if cohn's model is even in the same universe than reality, than NC is clinton's and if she wins NC, she also wins high-educated CO/VA/NH.

That model no longer applies.

Pubs are coming home, including the educated Pubs. They are declaring themselves "undecided" in most recent polls, but expect that "undecided" is a codeword for shy Trump.

Shy Trump voters are not a thing.

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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794258943774171137?lang=de

Full party of deplorables. They haven't become this, they always were this and just have a safe space now.

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     Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 34,351,774 votes making up 74.3% of the entire 2012 early vote.

still seems kind of low, since only a few days are left...even stops tomorrow at some places.

is this normal? (lots of mail outstanding i guess)

The last few days of early voting are huge.  They are usually what makes or breaks when it comes to numbers.

Which is why we should all be watching very carefully the next couple days.

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This doesn't really belong here, but I don't know where to put it. I don't have much thought on it yet, but it's worth a read/think (long tweet storm):

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/794259488664649732

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https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794263573073690624

Obama at Duval to encourage early voting.

Look at the crowd enthusiasm.

#Theraceto13%

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That's very good news. It was a hunch for a lot of people, but it's great to see it in the numbers. That's not a small bit of movement in such a close state.

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Ralston answered my question! If you comment he'll answer it.

He "dissed" Nate's model a bit

Considering how obviously wrong it is about NV, I'm not surprised.

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I was really becoming cynical about the situation in FL, but this is fantastic news from all across the state, and not just Duuuuuuuuval. Quite comforting.

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Idk why Ralston said it was a good day for the GOP in Washoe. I mean, yes they "won" the day but GOP was +500 in Washoe in 2012 EV. Now with one day to go Democrats are +1,000. Given Obama won Nevada by 7 points in 2012 I don't know in what universe doing worse than 2012 could be called "good."

Ralston has a lingo. He looks day to day, without precedent in his first tweets, fills in reality along the night. They did, as he notes first, win Washoe. He just enjoys telling you what that really means an hour later.

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Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873

Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.

And I don't care if they do (they won't), with what Clark's doing.

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The new Freiwal.

My favorite part about this freiwal? It's 293 EVs. She wouldn't need PA.

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Ralston and Schale have posted their daily updates. I'll give excerpts:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

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http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/11/4/it-is-friday-somewhere-and-that-somewhere-is-2016-election.html

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There are a lot of people one can shrug off. You shrug off those two at your own peril.

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Gotcha, I figured. Thanks.

Where can i find the up to date total votes cast by county results? NV SoS site?

By the way, love this thread, been reading it for about 2-3 weeks or so....check it every morning and throughout the day haha..........

Always glad to have another nerd on board! http://www.electproject.org/early_2016 is your friend for finding out where to get up to date numbers from each state. For NV, you can also follow Jon Ralston on twitter, who has the connections to often get Clark and Washoe numbers before the state has them registered.

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Does anyone have 2016 vs. 2012 EV totals for Florida with party breakdowns included as well? EV in the state is just about over and wondering how they compare? Thanks

http://www.electproject.org/2012_early_vote

Has some basic breakdowns of the final 2012 EV %s. I'm not great for finding all the charts and graphs and things like that. Arch might know if he pops in today.

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We passed 37 million votes cast this morning!