absentee/early vote thread, part 2

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Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

My impression was that her lead was better than 4 years ago? According to this Nevada guy?

No clue where those numbers come from. Jon has them, as of this morning:

Statewide: Dems +37,700 (Let's say [TRIGGER WARNING] after the other cows come home, it's 37,000) In 2012 at this time, it was 41,000, and there were 200,000 fewer active voters.

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I imagine HRC's team believes in NC exactly enough to push hard in it:

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Ohio news: Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton Counties made up 28% of the early vote in '12.

This year, they've made up 31% of the early vote, with Franklin County making up the biggest difference. A lot more infrequent voters showing up early this year.

Great news to hear that OH is recovering nicely.

Come on, OH, big numbers today and put OH heavily in play....!

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i agree that the reg data is confusing.

but while i see IA/OH/AZ safe in camp trump...

Yep

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I think both are tossup/tiniest lean D on EV momentum

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Yep.

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"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet.

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'Ere comes Clark!

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Is there any recent polling data or EV data out of New Mexico? I haven't seen a poll from there for 3 weeks atleast.

Keep an eye out in the Atlas Google Consumer Surveys thread. Cinyc is running an NM poll as we speak!

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VA is gone (of course):

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Huge turnout day in Broward county. Already a 1 day high for VBM returns and on pace for a 1 day high for EIP voters.

http://www.voterfocus.com/voterturnout/GetVoterTurnout.php?county=broward&election=213#

Could be one of the most important days of the campaign. Looking to use today, and to a lesser extent, tomorrow closing the door.

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From PPP's new trio of CO, MI, and VA:

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"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

Steve Schale

Thru Thurs, Dems took lead in FL

Dem: 2,099,906 (+2,670)
GOP: 2,097,236
NPA: 1,087,063

Woohoo!

Oh wow! I missed that the Dems had taken the lead before Friday even began. Can't wait to see what the next two days produce there.

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I come back from my meeting and both Nevada and Florida are putting up #yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge numbers! You can just sense Schale's excitement; he knows what numbers need to be gathered, and he's watching those goals getting closer and closer.

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Hit the turning point in CO.

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Hit the turning point in CO. No way Rs match 2012 with time left.

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When does early voting end in CO?

Runs straight through, so I actually revise that statement. They'd have to stay strong, but they could still match 2012. In the world of 2012, being 2% ahead gave the Republicans a 5.5% loss. If they only match (or don't even match), hard to see where any magic appears for them.

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More on Florida's massive day:

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Hit the turning point in CO.

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Can we start chicken littleing now?

See my pre-empting of this question here:

They'd have to stay strong, but they could still match 2012. In the world of 2012, being 2% ahead gave the Republicans a 5.5% loss. If they only match (or don't even match), hard to see where any magic appears for them.

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Voting lasts longer than usual tonight in NV. Expect final numbers to be a little late, but be oh so worth it.

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Ralston

"Clark County voters w/3 hours left: 32,800. May not get to 50K. My guess is Ds will not increase margin by 10K as did on last day in '12."

Ugh.

See my post which barely ninja'd yours, however.

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Hit the turning point in CO.

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Can we start chicken littleing now?

See my pre-empting of this question here:

They'd have to stay strong, but they could still match 2012. In the world of 2012, being 2% ahead gave the Republicans a 5.5% loss. If they only match (or don't even match), hard to see where any magic appears for them.

I guess the question is - how much of that 7.5% swing can we count on?

UFAs are infamously left leaning in CO. We should be okay on this current trajectory. Rs could get back in it, but it would take some super human efforts or a serious misreading. As PPP said today,

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Schale asked if he'll make a firm call on Florida:

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@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY

Last two days of early voting in NC have been very good for Dems, per our estimates. Lots of irregular Clinton vt

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No, as I said many times (more then >3 times, for sure), this model is based on one poll only, but is using EV data as some kind of LV screen. So it is alread brought from +7 to +6. By 1%, which is (oh the irony) is a house effect of Sienna poll according to Nate Silver's model. And if the race have tightened (and it is indeed true), the estimation are wrong as well. But sigh...

#EducationInAmericaSucks
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/794694744303632385

It burns every part of my soul to say this, but LBP and me have indeed had to have this convo a few too many times. The entire projection is pegged to a single self run and oldish poll, which actually showed her one higher than voting is showing so far. Think of her as one back on polling....only if their poll hit their electorate and rates right. If that poll failed....this model is literally meaningless.

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i think the daily comments of cohn regarding this matter have been VERY confusing.

Cohn tried to have it both ways a lot of the time.

For sure. He hasn't done it justice at all.

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Clark turnout is crazy. expected to be over 50K now

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794708214264668160

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