Georgia Supreme Court Election

[GAinDC]

Anybody else following this race? John Barrah' is back, baby!

HOSCHTON, Ga. (AP) — May’s election for the Georgia Supreme Court is playing out as races for the state’s highest court have for decades: sitting justices running uncontested.

But there is an exception, and it’s driven by the issue that has roiled politics across the country for the past two years: abortion.

Justice Andrew Pinson is the only one of four incumbents seeking election to draw a challenge, and it’s a formidable one. Former U.S. Rep. John Barrow, a Democrat, hopes to harness a voter backlash to abortion restrictions to unseat Pinson in what could be a model for future Georgia court contests in a state that has become a partisan battleground.

The May 21 general election for a six-year term is nonpartisan, and a Barrow victory wouldn’t change the conservative leanings of the court. Eight of the nine justices, including Pinson, were appointed by Republican governors. The other won his seat unopposed after being appointed to a state appellate court by a Democratic governor.

https://apnews.com/article/georgia-supreme-court-abortion-2024-election-9c6a5a89117daca1e0260cec6538fecf

Yall think this race could be sleeper upset for Barrow?

[GAinDC]

John Barrow was a pro-life Democrat in Congress. Weird.

He received a 100% from NARAL during his last term in Congress.

[GAinDC]

I think it’ll be an interesting race. Dems are trying to make it a proxy referendum on abortion rights, so I think the results will tell us how well that message resonates in a southern state.

[GAinDC]

No mailers or texts at my place (north Cobb) from either candidate yet, but I have seen Pinson ads on TV. On my way to vote, I saw a bunch of signs for local candidates, but nothing for the Supreme Court races.

Edit: As I get home from running errands, I see a Barrow ad on TV lol

Any new updates from Georgians about the state of this race?

[GAinDC]

Is there no early voting for this?

I think early voting opened up a couple weeks ago and ended last weekend

This race seems to be gaining traction among the resist lib crowd, so I'm expecting a competitive race

[GAinDC]

Not a great comparison, but the final day of early voting cumulative for Georgia in 2022 was 57-29 white/black, and it's 62-29 right now. Not horrible for Ds but that white share being 5% higher isn't great either.

This kind of race is likely to bring out a large number of white, suburban women, who seem to be the most fired up about the abortion issue. So, in this case, the white vote may be more Dem leaning than a general electorate

[GAinDC]

The election is really flying under the radar here in Forsyth County because none of the local races are interesting.  I expect this is going to be very low turnout.

Low turnout probably helps Barrow if it become a referendum on abortion rights

[GAinDC]

The election is really flying under the radar here in Forsyth County because none of the local races are interesting.  I expect this is going to be very low turnout.

Low turnout probably helps Barrow if it become a referendum on abortion rights

Yeah I would agree with this. The fact that it's not being nationalized is likely to work in Barrow's favor theoretically

Either way, I'm excited to see the results

I hope Barrow can win but it would be a major upset since sitting justices are almost never defeated.

However, that's because they are usually quiet, low-turnout, non-partisan affairs where incumbency and name ID are all that matters.

Barrow is succeeding in making this election a referendum on abortion. The Republicans are responding for making a bigger play for this seat.

So, we'll see

[GAinDC]

That’s honestly not bad at all!

[GAinDC]

Gender gap is also 13 points. Is that typical?

[GAinDC]

is this a general election for this seat?

Yup -- winner take all

[GAinDC]

Gender gap is also 13 points. Is that typical?

Yeah, looks like its been about Female +11-13-ish since 2020 for the EV. Though this seems to be the most female of the bunch by a hair.

Black turnout looks good among the EV compared to previous. It's just this one is a bit more white than previous.

2020
57% white, 28% black
55% female, 43% male

2022
57% white, 29% black
55% female, 44% male

2022 runoff
55% white, 32% black
56% female, 44% male

2024
61% white, 30% black
56% female, 43% male

very interesting -- thanks!

[GAinDC]

I didn't realize though that the ballot apparently says "incumbent" next to the Rs name, so I assume that will likely help him

That's why its very, very hard for 'nonpartisan' court justices anywhere to lose. Unless there is a party label, or the court gets uber-politicized like Wisconsin, these races are usually quiet retentions. This sometimes leads to weird or even decades-old political coalitions showing up.

That we are even discussing such a race is unique.

I don't think Barrow will win, but it'll probably be closer because of the partisan nature it has taken on.

But it may show us interesting trends below the surface. For example, if Barrow overperforms in those blue trending ATL suburbs, it might tell us something about November

[GAinDC]

According to Election Twitter, the early vote looks really bad for Barrow as it skews pretty white and older.

But doesn't it seem like it's middle aged and older women (from the Second Wave Feminism era when Roe became law) are the angriest about Dobbs, since they can see the full picture of fighting for that right and then watch it being taken away?

Idk, maybe I'm overthinking this and the race is just too under the radar for Barrow to even have a chance

[GAinDC]

According to Election Twitter

lol true

[GAinDC]

I think we'll flip this one. There seems to be almost no enthusiasm for the R side, i doubt half of them even know its happening.

But do Dems?

[GAinDC]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/21/us/elections/results-georgia-primary.html

NYT isn't even bothering to do a map for it. -_______-

Aww, at the very least they could do that...

I guess the SOS website is the next best option?

[GAinDC]

Well it ended up being close but not in the way I thought! lol

It was a valiant effort by John Barrah but he had a lot stacked against him.