Germany: Coalition Negociations collapse, what next?

[Lechasseur]

Well negociations to form a ''Jamaica'' coalition government between the CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens collapsed the other day when the FDP walked out. The President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier is not keen on new elections because he thinks the AfD will gain even more seats, and the SPD don't want to enter a grand coalition with the CDU/CSU again because they think that's the reason their share of the vote continues to decline. So what happens next?

[Lechasseur]

Merkel probably leads a minority government, something I doubt she really wants to do...though it's also possible she stands down as Chancellor/leader of CDU to allow new talks to develop.

I think the former is most likely in the short term but the minority government probably doesn't last more than a year. Ideally I think she should step down, I think it would be best for all parties involved but she won't unless she's forced out by her own party.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/merkel-points-to-grand-coalition-with-social-democrats-idUSKBN1DP0BP

The SPD now says it's willing to talk turkey...so Merkel isn't politically dead yet.

Merkel might not be politically dead, but if the SPD does a coalition with her, SPD will be dead. They'll be lucky to even get double digits by the next election if they go into a grand coalition.

IMO Germany really needs to experience a minority government. Merkel has a good enough plurality, she could just do some stuff with SPD, others alongside FDP and AfD and other stuff with FDP and the Greens. A minority government will actually give her more stability and flexibility, not less.

I agree with you on both counts