Election Night '24: My first timeline

[Plankton5165]

So, before we start the timeline for election '24, let's reveal the much quicker predictions for 2016 and 2020:

Donald Trump and Mike Pence will run against Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, we all know that. The other candidates are Gary Johnson and William Weld, and Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka.

Hillary Clinton will carry New York state, California, Hawaii, Maryland, Illinois, Massachusetts, Washington, and of course, DC. (that would bring her total to 144.)

What about 2020? Donald Trump would be battling Kanye West and Tulsi Gabbard for re-election, with the same state values as 2012 and 2016. Kanye West will win Hawaii, California, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, and DC, and that's it. (Trump would win 430 to 108.)

Now, let's find out who the 46th president and 49th vice president will be. Will it be three-term Florida senator Marco Rubio and New York member of the house Elise Stefanik, the Republican candidates, California Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom and Louisiana member of the house Cedric Richmond, the Democratic candidates, or singer/songwriter/rapper Ke$ha and Alaska Governor Bill Walker, the Independent candidates?

Here now is the map we'll be working with:

The states Rubio/Stefanik win will be colored red, and the states Newsom/Richmond win will be colored blue. If there are states Ke$ha/Walker win, those states will be colored yellow.

We'll be back soon with results.

[Plankton5165]

Welcome back. It's 7:00 PM EST, and the polls have closed in six states, we can now make several projections.

PMB (Passionate Maven Beam) can now project that the winner of South Carolina will be Florida Senator Marco Rubio. He will capture all 10 electoral votes. Had Carter not won the state in 1976, the Palmetto State would have the largest Republican streak record to itself, starting in 1964, despite never being won by a Republican since 1876 until 1964.

In Indiana, the home state of Vice President Mike Pence, PMB projects that the winner of the Hoosier state and its 10 electoral votes will be Florida Senator Marco Rubio. Indiana has only gone Democratic twice, in 1964 and 2008, since the collapse of the Niagara Bridge in New York.

In Kentucky, PMB projects that Marco Rubio will win its 10 electoral votes. The Bluegrass State hasn't voted Democratic since 1996, usually the first state the Republican candidate will pick up. Marco Rubio picks it up again in 2024.

In Georgia and Virginia, no projection for either state, however Marco Rubio has substantial leads in both states.

In Vermont, the race is too close to call. Donald Trump was able to narrowly revive its epic Republican DNA in 2016, as he won the 2016 primary, in the 2016 Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton couldn't get a single delegate. Even though it was the first state the Democrats would pick up, can Florida Senator Marco Rubio win Vermont to keep the state's Republican DNA?

Here's the electoral map. Marco Rubio has 30 electoral votes, and neither of the other candidates are on the board at the moment.

[Plankton5165]

It's 7:14 PM, and we can now project a winner in Virginia. PMB projects the winner of the state of Virginia will be Senator Marco Rubio, and its 15 electoral votes. Virginia hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964 until Obama won it twice. Now, the winner will be Marco Rubio.

Marco Rubio has 45 electoral votes, no one else is on the board.

[Plankton5165]

It's 7:30 pm EST, and the polls have closed in three more states. We cannot projected a winner in North Carolina or Ohio, but here is what we can project:

Senator Marco Rubio will win the state of West Virginia. Currently, Marco Rubio is in first with 65%, Ke$ha is in second with 22%, Newsom in third with 11%.

The Mountain State hasn't voted Democratic since 1996, it has finally voted Republican more times than it voted Democratic. West Virginia voted Democratic 20 times, now, as one of the most Republican states, West Virginia will vote Republican for the 21st time.

With that, Marco Rubio will gain another five electoral votes.

In North Carolina, it is too close to call. (Newsom 36%, Ke$ha 32%, Rubio 30%)

In Ohio, it is too early to call, Marco Rubio has an unsettling lead. (Rubio 48%, Ke$ha 30%, Newsom 21%)

Here's the map. Rubio has 50 EVs, Newsom 0, and Ke$ha 0.

[Plankton5165]

At 7:48 PM, we can project another win for Marco Rubio. PMB projects he will carry Georgia state and its 18 electoral votes.

The Peach State hasn't voted Republican since 1992. Georgia and West Virginia are the only states Romney won in 2012 that Carter won in 1980. Hillary Clinton was leading some Georgia polls in 2016, couldn't actually carry it. She had a chance to restore the state's incredible Democratic history, so did Gavin Newsom, neither cases.

In Georgia state however, as of now, 45% for Marco Rubio, 32% for Gavin Newsom, and 18% for Ke$ha.

Georgia was one of six states that voted for Barry Goldwater in 1964, and one of six states that voted for Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Marco Rubio now has 68 electoral votes, Gavin Newsom and Ke$ha both have 0.

[Plankton5165]

It's 8:00 PM EST, and the polls are now closed in many states.

PMB projects the state of Maryland and its nine electoral votes will be won by Gavin Newsom. This is the first win we projected for the California governor, no Republican has won Maryland since 1988, not this year either.

The District of Columbia will be won by Gavin Newsom, whether if they lost big or won big, the Democrats have always carried the District of Columbia by severely overwhelming margins.

In Florida, we can make a projection. PMB projects that Marco Rubio will win his home state of Florida, the Sunshine State and its 31 electoral votes. Florida last got the winner wrong in 1992, before that was 1960, before that was 100 years ago, in 1924. Ke$ha and Newsom were hoping to embarrass Marco Rubio in his home state, as President Trump did in the Florida Republican primary back in 2016, by taking all 99 delegates. However, Marco Rubio will carry the state of Florida.

Current vote tally as of now in Florida: Rubio 52%, Ke$ha 26%, Newsom 19%.

Everywhere else, no projection. Marco Rubio has 99 electoral votes, coincidentally, wait a minute... no he doesn't.

In Maine's 2nd congressional district, we can project a winner. PMB projects that the winner of the 2nd district will be Marco Rubio. However, it's just the 2nd district. He may win the rest of Maine.

Marco Rubio has 100 electoral votes, Gavin Newsom has 12 electoral votes, and Ke$ha hasn't won any state.

[Plankton5165]

It's 8:25 pm on the East Coast, we can now project the winner of Ohio will be Florida Senator Marco Rubio. He will carry all 22 of Ohio's electoral votes.

No Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying the Buckeye State, which hasn't been wrong since the start of the Billboard Hot 100. In speaking of Billboard Hot 100, Ke$ha, who had the Billboard year-end number-one single in 2010 really wanted to carry Ohio, Marco Rubio will carry it.

Current tally: Rubio 51%, Ke$ha 31%, Newsom 17%.

Marco Rubio has 122 electoral votes, Gavin Newsom 12, Ke$ha 0.

The blue state Maryland is for Gavin Newsom, all of the red states are for Marco Rubio.

Every single red state on this map were red states in 2000. (with the exception of Maine's 2nd congressional district)

[Plankton5165]

It's 8:30 pm, and the polls have just closed in Arkansas. PMB projects that the winner of the Natural State will be Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and its six electoral votes.

Marco Rubio has a colossal lead, 47%, Ke$ha is currently in second with 25%, Gavin Newsom in third with 22%.

Marco Rubio has 128 electoral votes, Gavin Newsom holds at 12, Ke$ha still is yet to get on the board.

[Plankton5165]

It's 8:34 pm EST, we have two projections to make.

PMB projects that the state of Pennsylvania and its 17 electoral votes will be won by Marco Rubio. Only one election winner failed to carry Pennsylvania since the beginning of Unix time: George W. Bush in the early 2000s.

PMB can also project that the winner of the rest of Maine will be Marco Rubio, giving him three more electoral votes. Maine has not been won by a Republican candidate since 1988 until 2016 when Trump carried the state. Now, all of Maine will go for Rubio.

In this new map, Marco Rubio has 148 electoral votes, Gavin Newsom has 12 electoral votes, Ke$ha has 0.

[Plankton5165]

At 8:44 pm EST, PMB projects that the winner of Rhode Island's three electoral votes will be Gavin Newsom. He will flip the state blue. Rhode Island hasn't voted for a Republican since 1984 until 2016 when Trump carried it, however, Newsom will carry it.

Newsom has a lead, 47%, Marco Rubio is at 34%, 16% for Ke$ha.

Rubio holds at 148, Newsom has 15, Ke$ha has 0. Rubio still nearly leads Newsom by an epic 10-1 margin.

[Plankton5165]

At 8:46 pm EST, we can make another projection. Gavin Newsom is the winner in the state of Illinois, and he will win its 17 electoral votes.

Newsom is currently at 45%, to Rubio's 29%, to Ke$ha's 21%.

No Republican has won Illinois since 1988, not a single candidate has won the White House without carrying Illinois since 1976, before that was Woodrow Wilson in 1916, not 2016, before that was Grover Cleveland in 1884. No Republican has ever won the White House without taking Illinois until 2000.

This was a state Ke$ha hoped to carry, she still got nothing! Rubio holds at 148, Gavin Newsom is at 32.

[Plankton5165]

At 8:55 pm, in the state of New Jersey, Marco Rubio is the winner. New Jersey went down from 14 electoral votes to 10 electoral votes in one change.

New Jersey was only flipped blue twice since the end of World War 2, and hasn't voted for a Republican candidate since 1988 until 2016 when Trump won it, now Rubio wins it. The last three losing Republicans managed to get 40% or more of the vote.

Marco Rubio also has 40%+ in New Jersey. 43% for Rubio, 31% for Newsom, 24% for Ke$ha.

All campaigns have spent millions of dollars in New Jersey, this was a state Ke$ha really wanted to win, Marco Rubio is the winner.

Marco Rubio has 158 electoral votes, Gavin Newsom has 32 electoral votes, Ke$ha still needs to get on the board.

[Plankton5165]

It is 9:00 pm EST, and the polls in more states have closed.

PMB projects that all 10 of Nebraska's EVs, right now, will go to Florida Senator Marco Rubio. Nebraska hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964, apart from the electoral vote Obama received from the second district in 2008.

North Dakota, 3 electoral votes, will go for Marco Rubio, and South Dakota, 3 more electoral votes, will also go for Marco Rubio. Neither state has voted for a Democrat since 1964.

The polygon state of Wyoming, 3 electoral votes, will also go to Marco Rubio, a state that hasn't gone Democratic since 1964.

In the other states, no projections. However, here are the current vote tallies.

• Arizona - Rubio 34%, Newsom 30%, Ke$ha 30%
• Colorado - Rubio 35%, Newsom 41% Ke$ha 18%
• Louisiana - Rubio 23%, Newsom 40%, Ke$ha 36%
• Kansas - Rubio 40%, Newsom 31%, Ke$ha 22%
• Michigan - Rubio 33%, Newsom 35%, Ke$ha 30%
• Minnesota - Rubio 40%, Newsom 39%, Ke$ha 18%
• New Mexico - Rubio 36%, Newsom 30%, Ke$ha 30%
• New York - Rubio 31%, Newsom 39%, Ke$ha 26%
• Texas - Rubio 39%, Newsom - 25%, Ke$ha - 34%
• Wisconsin - Rubio 46%, Newsom - 19%, Ke$ha - 30%

Marco Rubio adds another 19 EVs to his total, giving him 177 electoral votes, Gavin Newsom 32, Ke$ha 0.

[Plankton5165]

It's 9:05 pm EST, we have a projection to make in Texas. PMB projects that the winner of Texas and its 37 electoral votes will be Florida Senator Marco Rubio.

No Democrat has won Texas since 1976. It will be won by a Republican once again.

At the moment, 49% for Rubio, 30% for Ke$ha, 19% for Newsom. This was a state Ke$ha really wanted.

Marco Rubio has now broken the 200 barrier quickly, he is at 214, Gavin Newsom is at 32, and Ke$ha is still yet to score.

[Plankton5165]

At 9:09 PM EST, we can now project a win for Ke$ha. The singer-songwriter will carry her home state of Tennessee, and its 10 electoral votes. She is currently at 49%, to Rubio's 38%, to Newsom's 10%.

Tennessee hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1996, it was flipped red in 2000, despite it being Al Gore's home state. But, now, Tennessee will be flipped yellow.

With that, Ke$ha becomes the first third party candidate since George Wallace of Alabama in 1968 to win electoral votes.

Marco Rubio has 214 electoral votes, still very close to the magic number of 270, Gavin Newsom has 32, Ke$ha is finally on the board, with 10 electoral votes.

The yellow state, Tennessee, is for Ke$ha, the blue states are for Newsom, the red states are for Marco Rubio.

[Plankton5165]

At 9:14 PM EST, we have another projection to make.

PMB projects that the state of Oklahoma will be won by Marco Rubio, giving him three electoral votes. It went down from seven to three in one EV change.

Oklahoma hasn't voted Democratic since 1964.

Marco Rubio has 40% of the vote, 29% for Ke$ha, 27% for Newsom.

Marco Rubio now has 217 electoral votes, Gavin Newsom has 32, Ke$ha has 10.

[Plankton5165]

At 9:44 PM EST, we can make another projection in another state in the northeast.

PMB projects that the winner of Delaware will be Marco Rubio, awarding him four electoral votes.

The First State hasn't voted Democrat since 2012, it hasn't voted Republican since 1988 until 2016 when Trump was able to carry it.

George W. Bush is the only person to win without carrying Delaware since 1948. He won twice without ever carrying it.

Marco Rubio has 221 electoral votes, 32 for Gavin Newsom, 10 for Ke$ha.

[Plankton5165]

It is 9:46 pm EST, another winner in another state has been projected.

PMB projects that the Republican presidential nominee Marco Rubio will carry the state of Wisconsin and all 10 of its electoral votes.

Marco Rubio currently has 54% of the vote, 20% for Gavin Newsom, 22% for Ke$ha.

Wisconsin hasn't been won by a Republican since 1984 until 2016, although George W. Bush and Mitt Romney were close to carrying it.

Rubio has 231 electoral votes, getting closer and closer to 270, Newsom has 32, and Ke$ha has 10.

Tennessee, the yellow state, is for Ke$ha, if a state is blue, it's for Newsom, if it's red, it's for Rubio, if it's green, that means the state polls are closed, but still not enough information to project a winner, if it's grey, the polls are not closed yet.

[Plankton5165]

If you live in the next state where we're about to make a projection, it is 9:47 pm.

PMB projects that the Republican Presidential Nominee, Marco Rubio will carry New York state and its 27 electoral votes. The Empire State is the home state of the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee, Elise Stefanik.

New York hasn't voted Republican since 1984 until 2020. Trump only lost the state in 2016 only because it was Hillary Clinton's home state as well.

This was a state Ke$ha really wanted, she's at 27%, Gavin Newsom is very slightly ahead at 28%, Marco Rubio is at 40%.

Marco Rubio has 258 electoral votes, exceptionally close to the magic number, already winning the election, 32 EVs for Gavin Newsom, 10 EVs for Ke$ha.

[Plankton5165]

Now we can make another projection at another state, at 9:54 pm EST.

PMB projects that the winner of Kansas is Marco Rubio, with five more electoral votes.

Rubio is at 45%, Newsom at 27%, and Ke$ha at 23%.

No Democrat has won Kansas since 1964.

Marco Rubio is exceptionally close with 263 electoral votes, a severely unsettling lead ahead, Gavin Newsom is way behind with 32 electoral votes, Ke$ha has 10.

[Plankton5165]

It is 10:00 PM EST, polls have closed in four states, and we got a really major projection to make right now.

PMB projects that Marco Antonio Rubio will become the 46th President of the United States. We projected that he will carry the polygon state of Utah, and its 10 electoral votes.

Obama, despite losing to Romney in the Beehive State by 48 points, won the presidency in 2012. It's gonna be even worse on the Democrats in Utah now. Marco Rubio is at 71%, Ke$ha is at 20%, Gavin Newsom is at 6%.

Marco Rubio is at 273 electoral votes, Newsom 32, Ke$ha 10.

We'll see what happens in the other states...

[Plankton5165]

At 10:25 pm...

Rubio 40%, Newsom 27%, Ke$ha 32%

Rubio is the projected winner in Alabama.

PMB projects that Rubio will win Alabama and its 10 electoral votes.

Since 1980, Alabama has voted Republican, and will continue to vote Republican in 2024. This was something Ke$ha wanted, but, Rubio will carry Alabama.

Marco Rubio is at 283 EVs, already passed the 270 threshold, Newsom is at 32, Ke$ha is at 10.

[Plankton5165]

It is 10:42 pm EST, and we have another projection to make.

PMB projects that Ke$ha will win the state of Arizona and its 10 electoral votes. Republicans have only lost it twice since the beginning of the second half of the twentieth century, also in 1996.

Ke$ha is leading in the Grand Canyon State with 37%, Newsom 29%, Rubio 28%.

Marco Rubio has a lead of 283 EVs, Newsom has 32, Ke$ha now has 20 electoral votes.

[Plankton5165]

At 10:46 pm EST, we are going to project a winner. PMB projects that Minnesota will be won by Marco Rubio, he won its caucus in 2016.

Marco Rubio, at 45%, has a 12-point lead over Gavin Newsom's 33%, to Ke$ha's 19%. Ke$ha wanted the whole state. All campaigns spent so much money in Minnesota.

Until 2016 when Trump carried the state, Minnesota had the longest Democratic streak of any state, starting in 1976, however it got easier for the Republicans to carry it in later years of the streak. That record now goes to Hawaii for itself, starting in 1988. If Rubio wins Hawaii, then it will be a tie between Illinois and Maryland, neither of which have voted Republican since 1988. If Newsom wins California where he was the governor, California will join the tie, unless Hawaii is also won by Newsom.

Here's a new map: Rubio extends his lead to 293 electoral votes, Newsom is way behind with 32, Ke$ha has 20 EVs. There are two yellow states, Tennessee (right) and Arizona (left), they're for Ke$ha, the blue states are for Newsom, the red states are for Rubio, who we just projected would win president.

[Plankton5165]

It is 10:52 pm EST. Projection time!

The state of Montana will be won by Marco Rubio. Despite being the fourth largest state, Montana only has three electoral votes. Montana was carried by the Republican candidate in every election since the beginning of the second half of the 20th century, with only two exceptions: The LBJ landslide in 1964, and the Bill Clinton landslide in 1992. In 1996, Bill Clinton would do even better, but he didn't carry Montana then.

Now, on to the current vote totals. Marco Rubio is at 48%, Gavin Newsom is at 27%, Ke$ha is at 20%.

Rubio has 296 electoral votes, he slightly extended his lead, it doesn't even matter, Gavin Newsom is at 32, Ke$ha is at 20.