WI - Marquette: Clinton+7

[Ozymandias]

Live Stream: https://law-media.marquette.edu/Mediasite/Play/d4bac28d2066460da7aef4d19adcb0381d.

Clinton 44 (41 last time)
Trump  37 (38)
Johnson 9 (11)
Stein 3 (2)

Party ID (w/leaners): D-47, R-44

878 LV, 10/6-10/9: Half last Thu, half Fri-Sun, all before Sun debate

DAY BY DAY BREAKDOWN (much larger MOE):

THU: Trump 41, Clinton 40 (T+1)
FRI: Clinton 44, Trump 38 (C+6)
SAT+SUN: Clinton 49, Trump 30 (C+19)

SENATE: Feingold 46, Johnson 44
                

[Ozymandias]

Didn't someone on here say that Marquette only polls those that are 100% certain to vote? Maybe that is affecting the numbers.

MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll  52m52 minutes ago
878 out of 1,000 respondents said they were certain to vote, which we label likely voters. Margin of error for them is +/-3.9. #MULawPoll

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/786254443813621760

[Ozymandias]

It's incredibly frustrating to see that Trump was ahead in a Kerry state after the first debate AND tax return scandal. I thought WI was locked down for months and now it's getting weird when things seem to be going really well for Hillary.

The fact that neither campaign has spent any money on ads here in the last two months suggests VERY strongly that all internal polling indicates a comfortable Wisconsin win-- by which I mean, the margin in WI will be larger than the margins in NH and PA (where the Clinton campaign is spending a lot of money).

[Ozymandias]

The fact that neither campaign has spent any money on ads here in the last two months suggests VERY strongly that all internal polling indicates a comfortable Wisconsin win-- by which I mean, the margin in WI will be larger than the margins in NH and PA (where the Clinton campaign is spending a lot of money).

Word is that Trump has pulled out of PA and is shifting those resources to Wisconsin. Sounds like a $600K ad buy is coming.

Could be-- though Trump already cut back on PA spending: less than 100K combined over last three weeks (was ~600 K four weeks ago), according to http://elections.ap.org/content/ad-spending

He seems to have shifted this money to CO (over 600 K last 2 weeks), but I can see him abandoning that effort after the recent great CO polls for Clinton.

So maybe WI will be his next target...