CA, SUSA, Clinton +21 (4-way) 10/28-31

[EpicHistory]

A chance for Trump to hold Orange?

Given these results show Clinton doing worse than Obama did in 2008......most definitely.

[EpicHistory]

The problem for Trump is that the states who will give Clinton her biggest margins compose around 20% of the vote. To win the popular vote he had to be around 40% in those states, like Bush was in 2004.
Trump can't win the popular vote, he can, however, compete to win the EC vote but even that is very stretched.

He's over-preforming in California and New York, especially in the latter according to the last poll we got.

[EpicHistory]

In New York? He's underperforming Romney by 5% according to the latest polls. And California is basically going 60/40 to Clinton, just like in 2008 and 2012.

Lol, wut?

Last poll in New York (Siena) found her ahead by 24%, a 4% drop from Obama's 28% margin. In California, this poll has her at only 21% while Obama's 2008 margin was 24%. So he's actually doing a lot better in both states than recent GOP candidates.

[EpicHistory]

You can tell me that the margins are lower for Clinton than they were for Obama in 2012. That's absolutely true and I recognize that. But, Trump is polling very, very badly in NY and CA. Romney had an average of 35% and 38% in NY and CA respectively. Trump has 30% in both, that's very low.

Let's look at California, for example. Romney in 2012 got 37% of the vote, while this poll has Trump at 35%. However, Clinton has dropped from Obama's margin by 3%. This means that, proportionally speaking, Trump is actually doing better. I do concede that in terms of raw votes, he's currently down but this is made up for by Clinton being down even more.