Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

A few more campaign posters for the October local elections:

Guimarães: PSD/CDS coalition


Vila Nova de Gaia: PSD/CDS coalition


Vila Nova de Gaia: BE

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Ferreira do Zêzere: PS

[Mike88]

Update on the local elections:

CDS/PPM/MPT coalition in Lisbon is presented and has a new name: New Lisbon



The CDS/PPM/MPT coalition led by Assunção Cristas, presented today their new image and name for the fall election campaign. The coalition will be named "New Lisbon" which will appear on  ballot papers. On campaign posters the coalition will be also branded "For our Lisbon". But things aren't looking good for Cristas. Although there aren't public polls currently, the latest private polling done for the PS, PSD and CDS show Cristas in 3rd place and well bellow the PSD, who haven't even started campaigning.

Update on the national political scene:

The selection of a new head of the secret services is creating a lot of tension between the PS and the rest of the parties in Parliament. José Júlio Pereira Gomes, the man chosen by Costa to head the secret services, has a long history of apparently lying about state affair and according to Publico newspaper he lied about the exit of the Portuguese delegation from Timor Leste in 1999 saying it was the then PM, António Guterres, who forced the exit when in reality it was him that forced the exit. In 1999 this event embarrassed the Portuguese government in the international community.


José Júlio Pereira Gomes

The PSD and BE have already reacted saying that Mr. Pereira Gomes doesn't have the "mental stamina" to be head of the secret services and want the government to change his nomination. António Costa has already said he has full confidence in Mr. Pereira Gomes. Will see how this ends but it doesn't look good that someone who has this background should lead the secret services.

Also, another controversy regarding local accommodation is haunting the government. Last week the government unveiled a plan to regulate local accommodation by proposing that any new tenant has to pass by a majority in a assembly of Condominium owners. This plan was hammered by the PSD/CDS opposition, home owners associations plus it goes against many court rulings which say that only owners of the housing have the right to decide who uses their property. But now, Jornal Económico discovered that the PS MP who drafted the bill has shares in Hotel investments which would be benefited by the new bill. The newspaper says that a conflict of interests is evident.

[Mike88]

More posters for the local elections:

The PNR, National Renovator Party (the National Front of Portugal), has posters almost in every big city. Although they poll very low numbers, around 0.5% in general elections and 0.1% in the last local elections, this year they are running in many more cities and in big cities like Lisbon, Sintra and Coimbra.

Here's some posters from the party:

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Also, this poster is just hilarious!! In Vila Verde (Braga district), a 2013 PS candidate for Oleiros parish switch parties and now is running for the PSD. But the photo she uses in this year's posters is the same from 2013:

2017 vs 2013
 

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I found this precious thing in this facebook page, Tesourinhos das Autarquicas. This page has all the weird and funny posters from this year's election and also 2013. Enjoy the funny side of Portuguese politics.

[Mike88]

Update on the local elections:

CDS/PPM/MPT coalition in Lisbon is presented and has a new name: New Lisbon



The CDS/PPM/MPT coalition led by Assunção Cristas, presented today their new image and name for the fall election campaign. The coalition will be named "New Lisbon" which will appear on  ballot papers. On campaign posters the coalition will be also branded "For our Lisbon". But things aren't looking good for Cristas. Although there aren't public polls currently, the latest private polling done for the PS, PSD and CDS show Cristas in 3rd place and well bellow the PSD, who haven't even started campaigning.

I love how the PPM still attaches itself to tickets.

They need to survive someway, don't they? And running in coalitions with PSD or CDS is the best solution for them. Running alone they wouldn't elect anyone so, with this coalitions they are able to elect some members for the Municipal and Parish Assemblies. That way they also receive funds for their parties plus PSD and CDS gather all the center-right to right-wing votes against a divided left from the PS, CDU, BE. It's basically a win win situation.

[Mike88]

Update on the local elections campaign:

João Semedo, BE candidate for Porto, has withdrawn from the race due to health issues.


João Semedo.

João Semedo announced today that he will step down as the Left Bloc candidate for Porto mayor because of health issues. Mr Semedo, who recently overcame a hard battle against a cancer in the vocal cords, was one of the BE strongest candidates and, according to polls, with high chances of surpassing CDU in the elections in Porto. So, his withdraw from the race is bad news for BE. To replace him the party chose the BE's candidate in the 2001, 2005 and 2009 elections, João Teixeira Lopes. But Mr Lopes has always polled very poorly, never exceeding 5% of the votes... The BE's dream of having a councilman in Porto may be gone.

Also, the PSD has, finally, chosen a candidate for Matosinhos:

After a bitter war between the local party and the district party, which escalated to threats of expulsions and judicial consequences, the party nominated Jorge Magalhães, a doctor with 63 years old, to be the party's candidate for Matosinhos mayor. The race in Matosinhos is, nonetheless, wide open. The PS has 3 candidates from the same political area, although they officially only support one, and this, in theory, would benefit the PSD but the highly public war in the local party may have tarnish any hope of a good result in Matosinhos.

[Mike88]

Update on the number of candidacies, for the local elections, announced by party/coalitions to date:

Number of candidacies led by each political force to date:
261 PS*
284 PSD*
126 CDU
  68 CDS*
  65 BE
    2 PAN
    3 PTP
    5 MPT
  12 PNR
    2 PPM
    4 JPP
    2 L/TDA
    2 PDR
    1 PURP
  66 Independent

PCTP, PPV/CDC and NC have not yet announced any candidacy.

Note:
PS* - PS alone: 259; PS/JPP: 1; PS/BE/JPP/PDR/NC: 1
PSD* - PSD alone: 207 ; PSD/CDS: 61; PSD/CDS/PPM: 4; PSD/CDS/MPT: 6; PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT: 6
CDS* - CDS alone: 65; CDS/PSD: 3

[Mike88]

June poll from Eurosondagem:



Popularity ratings:


Poll conducted between 1 and 7 June. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%

Link.

Seat projections (compared with the 2015 election):

110 (+24) PS
  80    (-9) PSD
  16    (-3) BE
  14    (-3) CDU
    9    (-9) CDS
    1    ( =) PAN

With a PSD/CDS coalition scenario:

105 (+19) PS
  96  (-11) PSD/CDS
  15    (-4) BE
  13    (-4) CDU
    1    ( =) PAN

One major political event that occurred in the last two days of polling was the 35% budget cuts to the National Health Service proposed by the government. The goal is to reduce the number of "task doctors" in the NHS, doctors who work outside the NHS but who help emergency responders in hospitals. The budget cuts will, according to medical and hospital associations, reduce drastically the number of doctors and will hurt treatment to patients. There have already been resignations is some hospitals but it's unclear yet if this will affect the government.

[Mike88]

Yes, real estate has been booming here for quite a while, particularly after the creation of "Golden visas" and the reform of incomes and rents in the previous PSD/CDS government. Pensioners from France and UK, and many other EU countries, have special treatment here as they don't need to pay many taxes, so they invest a lot in farms in Algarve and Lisbon but also in the Douro and Porto region recently. But this program has been controversial in many EU states like Finland and the government is actually trying to change the benefits for foreign pensioners which could halt this good momentum.

Also, real estate investment has revigorate the old parts of Porto and Lisbon. After decades of decay and ruin, the downtown of both these cities have been almost requalified and business and tourism is surging everywhere. Tourism has been a big boost for the economy now since 2013 but this tourism surge is creating tension between residents and tourists and a recent government plan to fix local accommodation is creating huge backlash. I wrote about it a few posts above:

Also, another controversy regarding local accommodation is haunting the government. Last week the government unveiled a plan to regulate local accommodation by proposing that any new tenant has to pass by a majority in a assembly of Condominium owners. This plan was hammered by the PSD/CDS opposition, home owners associations plus it goes against many court rulings which say that only owners of the housing have the right to decide who uses their property. But now, Jornal Económico discovered that the PS MP who drafted the bill has shares in Hotel investments which would be benefited by the new bill. The newspaper says that a conflict of interests is evident.

Will see how this ends but any damage on the golden goose of the Portuguese economy is bad.

[Mike88]

Porto and Lisbon city councils have already created a "tourism tax" payed by tourists when they arrive at airports. It's not the same as a tax on foreign buyers but, right now, it's to early to tackle that. The market is becoming heated but it's still just right for now. The only problem is that it's going very fast... Will see.

Lisbon and Porto inner city population was quite high until the 80's. Lisbon reached it's peak in 1981 with a population of 810,000 people while Porto had 327,000 people. Since then, the population in both cities has collapsed mainly because of poor housing in inner cities, perpetrated by bad local policies of only caring for the suburbs and forgeting the old city parts. The boom of shopping malls in the 80's plus affordable/good quality flats in the suburbs around Lisbon of Porto, created an exodus of population from the cities to the suburbs. And adding to this were the very low rents tenants paid in the old parts. The vast majority of houses in the old parts were leased and the rents wouldn't go beyond 10 euros!! This was a policy started in 1910 which continued until the troika bailout, in which rents were upgraded. Property owners weren't able to pay for requalification works and business and residents left to get away from the bad environment this zones had. But now, everything changed and now it's refreshing to walk without any problem in Porto and Lisbon old parts.

-----

Now, a new party may be on the making.

Young volunteers have been asking for signatures in Lisbon book fair to form a new Liberal party in Portugal.


Logo of the Liberal movement.

According to Diário de Noticias, young volunteers, with blue shirts, were spotted asking for signatures in Lisbon book fair for the creation of a new Liberal party. The Liberal Initiative association, who is heading the collection of signatures, says they want to create a political force in the center between PS and PSD. They also say that the PSD isn't liberal enough because they aren't a "pillar of social and economic freedom". To form a party in Portugal you need to have more than 7.500 signatures. The movement wants to run in the upcoming European and General elections in 2019.

Don't know if they will have much success though. The failed experiences of PDR, L/TDA and NC prove it.

[Mike88]

Update on the political scene:

Not a very good week for the PS and Mr. Costa...

The week started with the controversial nomination of Diogo Lacerda Machado, one of the PM's best friends, to the board of TAP airlines.


António Costa (back), Diogo Lacerda Machado (front).

Mr. Lacerda Machado has made headlines in the past because of his connections with Mr. Costa and he was quite hammered because of it, but now all political parties, and even the President of the Republic, are raising eyebrows because of this nomination. And even the additional nomination of a high profile PSD member to the board isn't calming down the PSD as Passos Coelho has labeled this as "shamefull".

And a huge controversy has also fallen in the lap of the President of the PS, Carlos César.


Carlos César.

Newspapers have been reporting that many of his family members have been hired for jobs in Lisbon city council without any job interviews. The most recent case is his niece, Inês César. Mr. César's family jobs have been scrutinized by the press for quite some time now. "Sábado" magazine found in an investigation last year, that his wife, his son, his daughter in law and his brother, all had political jobs while he was President of the Azores government and some even, currently, in Mr Costa government.

Finally, to top this all up, there's a revival of the long war between "North and South" or between Porto and Lisbon. All of this because of the Portuguese candidacy to held the European Medicines Agency, who is leaving the UK because of Brexit.


Rui Moreira (back), António Costa (front).

The mayor of Porto, Rui Moreira, has said he wants the Agency to be in Porto because everything is concentrated in Lisbon and wants the government to choose Porto insted of Lisbon. But Mr. Costa wrote in a letter to Mr. Moreira that the choice is Lisbon, period. There's already huge backlash against this, with BE and PSD against the government decision and some MP and also MEP from the PSD are creating petitions and lobby's for the candidacies of Porto, Braga or Coimbra.

[Mike88]

More updates:

Today in Madeira regional parliament, PS-Madeira has voted, alongside PSD-M and CDS-M, in favour of a motion against António Costa visit to Madeira in March. This is a huge blow to the PM as there is more and more evidences of a possible split between the PS-Madeira and the national PS.


Left to right: António Costa, Carlos Pereira, Paulo Cafôfo.

The PS-M is deeply divided after a meeting between António Costa and the mayor of Funchal, Paulo Cafôfo. The purpose of the metting was to negotiate the support of JPP, a small party in Madeira, to Mr. Cafôfo but the problem is that all of this was done without the knowledge of the PS-M leader, Carlos Pereira. Now, the PS-M and Mr. Pereira fears Mr. Costa may impose a different candidate for the 2019 regional election, which is creating a war between both wings of the party.

Also, the "former candidate to be the candidate" of the PSD in Matosinhos, Joaquim Jorge, will present a book blasting the PSD and the famous head of the PSD machine, Marco António Costa.


Joaquim Jorge (left), Marco António Costa (right).

Mr. Joaquim Jorge says he wasn't ultimately chosen as the PSD candidate because he didn't have a membership card and that Mr. Marco António is against any party regeneration in the PSD. Adding he has a lot of sympathy and regard for Mr. Passos Coelho, he blasts the PSD's "machine man, Marco António Costa, saying his complements to Passos Coelho are false and that one day he wants to be president of the PSD.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for Correio da Manhã.

43.7% PS
24.6% PSD
  9.7% BE
  7.8% CDU
  4.6% CDS
  9.6% Others/Undecided

Turnout: 66.4%

Conducted between 7 and 11 June. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Link.

Aximage polls continue with weird results. Turnout numbers just don't add up. It will never be that high. CESOP-Universidade Católica normally makes a poll either in June or July and we will see if PSD is way down or if PS is way up. My opinion is that BE, CDU are overrated while PSD and CDS are underestimated, PS around 40% yes. Will see.

[Mike88]

This is still a poll for a general election, isn't it ? Will there be polls specifically for the Autumn municipal elections, or the only polling is in this form ? Are there polls for specific cities, at least the largest ones ? I seem to recall some of them from the previous pages, but I may be mixing it up with another thread. ^__^

Yes, it's a general election poll. There will be polls for the local elections of course, and there have been a few, Leiria and Porto lately, but this time around there have been almost no local polls. In 2013 there were thousands of polls by around this time. I hope that, in the next few weeks, some polls will appear, so i can update my forecast for the local elections.

The latest polls:
Porto (Rui Moreira incumbent):

44.8% 6/7 Rui Moreira
22.2%    3 PS
15.1%    2 PSD
  6.9%    1 CDU
  6.0% 0/1 BE
  5.0%       Others/Invalid

Leiria (PS incumbent):

52.0% 7/8 PS
26.6% 3/4 PSD
  4.9%       CDU
  4.2%       BE
  3.0%       CDS
  9.3%       Others/Invalid

There has also been many rumours about internal polls. Funchal appears to be very close, possible PSD gain, Fafe could also be a PSD gain, Coimbra also very close between PS and PSD, in Lisbon rumours say PS is ahead, PSD in second and CDS in a distant third place.

[Mike88]

Poll of Polls - June 2017



Vote share % and seat projections (compared with last month):



Link.

[Mike88]

Madeira Regional Parliament poll from Eurosondagem:

40.4% 21/22 PSD
30.0% 15/16 PS
  5.9%        3 BE
  5.4%     2/3 CDS
  4.9%        2 CDU
  4.7%        2 JPP
  1.9%        0 PTP
  6.8%        0 Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 7 and 9 June. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%

Link. 

[Mike88]

Poll from Intercampus for Maia, Porto suburb of 135,000 inhabitants: (PSD/CDS incumbent)

31.1% PS/JPP
27.1% PSD/CDS/PPM/PAN
  3.6% CDU
  2.6% BE
  3.5% Others
11.5% Blank/Invalid
20.5% Wouldn't vote

Poll conducted between 19 and 26 May. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.50%.

Very close race in Maia. Another race to watch.

[Mike88]

PAN allied with PSD? Why?

I also didn't knew PAN was allied with PSD in Maia, but PAN is a center to center-left party. It has animals rights as their goal and ideologically they're not very strong. They could support either the PS or PSD, in my opinion.

Actually in 2015, when PSD/CDS won the elections but lost their majority, PAN and PSD discussed about a possible support of PAN for Passos Coelho government program if PCP and PS failed to reach an agreement but ultimately PCP agreed with PS and the PSD/PAN talks stooped.

[Mike88]

Spanish newspaper "El Mundo" says that the Pedrógão fire disaster may be the end of António Costa's political career.

Spanish media has been much more blunt in accusing the Portuguese government rather than the Portuguese media. But today, El Mundo says that the series of events that created a sense of chaos and lack of leadership, particularly the now famous "airplane crash that didn't happen" or the refusal of the help the Galician government gave to Portugal because there were to much volunteers may undermine the Prime Minister or even end his political career.

El Mundo article: Link.

Now, although El Mundo may be exaggerating a bit, they have a point. Mr Costa's government made a series of political decisions in the last year that are now inexplicable. The decision to exclude the Air Force from fire combat, the refusal to buy new airplanes planed by the previous PSD/CDS government, plus the famous "Forest Reform" that is stuck in Parliament since April. One thing is sure, the good times for António Costa may be over.

[Mike88]

Okay, i updated my forecast for the October local elections. There have been some changes, mostly safe or lean PS/PSD cities to tossup. Right now the central forecast is:

118/153 PS
109/134 PSD
    30/36 CDU
    10/19 Independent
        4/5 CDS
        0/1 BE
        0/1 JPP

In my forecast, 182 cities can be classified as safe, 73 as leaning, 16 as slightly leaning and 37 toss-up. In comparison with the last forecast in April here are the changes:

Oliveira de Azeméis: Toss-up --> Lean PS
Mértola: Lean PS --> Toss-up
Castro Marim: Lean PSD --> Toss-up
Portimão: Safe PS --> Lean PS
Figueiró dos Vinhos: Slight PS --> Toss-up
Oeiras: Lean Ind --> Safe Ind
Elvas: Safe PS --> Toss-up
Maia: Lean PSD --> Toss-up
Vila do Conde: Safe PS --> Toss-up
Matosinhos: Safe PS --> Toss-up
Montalegre: Safe PS --> Toss-up
Funchal: Lean PS --> Toss-up
Pedrógão Grande: Safe PSD --> Toss-up
Salvaterra de Magos: Safe PS --> Toss-up
Porto Santo: Lean PS --> Lean PSD

And here's the forecast map by municipalities:

Pink: PS
Orange: PSD
Gray: Independent
Red: CDU
Blue: CDS
White: Toss-up

[Mike88]

The political scene has seen a big shift this week.

The Pedrógão Grande disaster is shaking António Costa's government and the PM, for the first time in his tenure, is in a very uncomfortable position. But, Passos Coelho also has troubles and next week he will have a very important challenge if he wants to maintain as PSD leader.

Next week, on July 1st, members of the PSD in Lisbon district will elect a new district president and a new district party assembly. The president election only has one list, headed by Pedro Pinto, which is a very close ally of Passos Coelho, but in the assembly elections he has a list against him. Morais Sarmento, former minister in Durão Barroso government, is heading a list to the assembly thus challenging the list supported by Passos Coelho. Morais Sarmento has the support of highly important PSD members like Manuela Ferreira Leite and even the possible challenger against Passos Coelho in 2018, Rui Rio.


The fight for the PSD is heating up. From left to right: Pedro Pinto, Morais Sarmento, Passos Coelho, Rui Rio.

If Passos Coelho loses the majority in Lisbon's PSD district assembly, it may be a sign that his days as PSD leader are over... and then get ready for Rui Rio.

[Mike88]

The political scene just got another shake up today:

Pedro Passos Coelho, PSD leader, visited today some villages and firefighters headquarters in Pedrogão Grande where he made some statements that are causing a big controversy. After his visit, Mr Passos Coelho told reporters that after talking to people and firefighters, he sees that the government is failing to help people and that at least in one case, one person committed suicide at of despair. This statements are creating a big uproar because they are being debunked by local and health authorities.


Passos Coelho visiting the Pedrogão Grande firefighters headquarters.

According to Expresso newspaper, Mr. Passos Coelho heard by a lot people, including firefighters and even some journalists, stories of despair and pain with some people committing suicide. According to the newspaper, he made public this story without confirming it. This statement is very serious and some say it's just a rumour but, unfortunately, in the last few days many rumours are turning out to be true. 

What started the fire was apparently dry lightning. The President, the PM, the police and others also confirmed it but as time went on many people living in the region said that no lightning was seen in the early hours of the afternoon and SIC Notícias tracked down the person who called 911 to the firefighters and he said that at the time he called the sky was blue without a single cloud.

And then there's this story. After the communications between help officials collapsed during the fire, the government said that the antennas burned during the fire. But according to local media, the antennas didn't burned and were unused apparently.

The allegations made by Passos Coelho are serious and may be another nail in the coffin for his future as PSD leader, but the lack of leadership and chaos the government is handling this tragedy is shocking. 

JUST IN: The president of the Santa Casa da Misericordia de Pedrógão Grande, just said it was him who gave the information to Passos Coelho and mislead him. He said there were in fact some suicide attempts but no actual suicides. He has already apologized publicly to Mr Passos Coelho.

[Mike88]

Fun fact about the current political situation:

The Passos Coelho "suicide" debacle is making pundits suggest, once again, that the PSD may not get many gains in the local elections and that the PS may retain their status of the largest local government party. If this happens it would be the first time that an incumbent government wins a midterm local election. The PSD would, with high certainty, have a change of leader.

But here's the tricky part. Every PM, since 1974, has won reelection after losing a midterm local election:

- Cavaco Silva's PSD lost the 1989 local elections, but won the 1991 general election.

- Guterres's PS performed badly in the 1997 local election, but came back and won the 1999 general elections with an almost absolute majority.

- Sócrates (PS) also lost the 2005 local elections and, in 2009, won reelection.

- Passos Coelho (PSD) achieved the worst result ever for the PSD in local elections in 2013, but was able to win the 2015 general elections.

If António Costa wins the local elections and if the PSD changes it's leader, possibly to Rui Rio, history suggests he could be in trouble in the next general election. We'll see if this logic holds up. 

[Mike88]

More posters for the October local elections:

Porto - PS

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Loures - PS

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Matosinhos - PS

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Paredes - PSD

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[Mike88]

Update on the local elections:

PSD candidate for Oliveira de Azeméis (Aveiro district), Isidro Figueiredo, drops from the race amid corruption investigations.


Isidro Figueiredo

Isidro Figueiredo, incumbent mayor and PSD candidate for Oliveira de Azeméis, has drop out of the race because of a huge corruption scandal involving him and his predecessor, Hermínio Loureiro. The scandal, dubbed "Ajuste Secreto" (Secret Covenant), involves many high profile politicians, the majority from the local PSD in Oliveira de Azeméis, and many presidents of football clubs. The accusation says both football presidents and local officials are involved in alleged practices of corruption and influence peddling in the direct adjudication of sports contracts in several clubs in the municipality.

The PSD will have to nominate a new candidate but this city is lost cause for the PSD. In 2013 they only won it by around 2% and with this scandal, Oliveira de Azeméis is now Safe PS.

[Mike88]

Another scandal rocks the political scene:

After the Pedrógão Grande disaster, the government's inefficient response to the disaster and the "suicide" gaffe of Passos Coelho, another scandal is rocking the political scene.


Aerial view of the Tancos military base (Santarém district).

On the early hours of June 29, the military facilities in Tancos were robbed and more than a hundred of offensive hand grenades, ammunitions of 9 mm gauge and other military material disappeared from the facilities. The government was caught off-guard with this robbery at the same time they were under fire by the media because of the Pedrógão Grande disaster.

But today, Diário de Notícias reports that the surveillance system of the military facility has been broken for two years  and that parts of the fences were deteriorated. The police and the government now fear that the stolen material could fall in the hands of terrorist organizations or people connected with terrorists.