CA, SUSA, Clinton +21 (4-way) 10/28-31

[Mike88]

This is why those national polls who have Trump in the lead are not plausible.

[Mike88]

This is why those national polls who have Trump in the lead are not plausible.

I dunno, though I doubt he's actually leading, there are a bunch of Northeastern States where I expect him to do better than a generic R would but still lose.

The problem for Trump is that the states who will give Clinton her biggest margins compose around 20% of the vote. To win the popular vote he had to be around 40% in those states, like Bush was in 2004.
Trump can't win the popular vote, he can, however, compete to win the EC vote but even that is very stretched.

[Mike88]

The problem for Trump is that the states who will give Clinton her biggest margins compose around 20% of the vote. To win the popular vote he had to be around 40% in those states, like Bush was in 2004.
Trump can't win the popular vote, he can, however, compete to win the EC vote but even that is very stretched.

He's over-preforming in California and New York, especially in the latter according to the last poll we got.

In New York? He's underperforming Romney by 5% according to the latest polls. And California is basically going 60/40 to Clinton, just like in 2008 and 2012.

[Mike88]

In New York? He's underperforming Romney by 5% according to the latest polls. And California is basically going 60/40 to Clinton, just like in 2008 and 2012.

Lol, wut?

Last poll in New York (Siena) found her ahead by 24%, a 4% drop from Obama's 28% margin. In California, this poll has her at only 21% while Obama's 2008 margin was 24%. So he's actually doing a lot better in both states than recent GOP candidates.

You can tell me that the margins are lower for Clinton than they were for Obama in 2012. That's absolutely true and I recognize that.
But, Trump is polling very, very badly in NY and CA. Romney had an average of 35% and 38% in NY and CA respectively. Trump has 30% in both, that's very low.