CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Jeppe]

Yeah, that's a error similar to what happened in IL-03. Marie Newman suddenly jumped into the lead because of a huge vote dump in Will, which turned out to be an error.

There's no way there would be more GA-06 Dem primary run-off voters than GA-GOV Republican primary run-off voters in GA-06.

[Jeppe]

The SOS tally only has 62/114 fulton precincts in vs the NYT at 113/114. That plus the fact that the count has updated from 87% to 89% to 91% in without any 'correction' to Fulton makes me think it's more likely the SOS just isn't getting its data as fast. This has happened before, in the TX-27 special election a few weeks back the NYT got the vote from the city of corpus christi well before the SOS did.

The ridiculous amount of votes in NYT's count makes it invalid. There is no way that 38,000 people in the Fulton portion of GA-06 voted in the Democratic primary run-off.

[Jeppe]

Fulton would never finish reporting this early either. Georgia's dumb electoral laws make all of the individual polling centers physically bring over flash-drives with the results to the county office, where they are finally inputted into the system. In a huge county like Fulton, that process takes hours.

[Jeppe]

With 109/114 precincts reporting, McBath is leading in Fulton County. She's won.

[Jeppe]

With 97% reporting across the district, MCBath is leading 53.5% to Abel's 46.5%. McBath has 13,928 votes to Abel's 12,088 votes.

Bourdeaux was declared the winner for GA-07. Looks like Emily's List has gone two-for-two tonight.

[Jeppe]

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/Fulton/76188/Web02.207986/#/cid/56

Precinct-level results for the Fulton portion GA-06 primary. McBath won across the county, with Abel doing best in the southern portion, in the city of Sandy Springs. He notched up wins with 80% of the vote in some of those Sandy Springs county, but McBath won in most polls outside of Sandy Springs, eventually winning countywide as well.

[Jeppe]

Despite trailing in the early vote badly, both McBath and Bourdeaux turned it around with e-day votes, and ended up winning surprisingly comfortably. McBath turned a 10 point deficit into a 7 point win, and Bourdeaux turned a 20 point deficit into a 4 point win.

[Jeppe]

Kevin Abel was the guy that said that a white person should represent GA-06, because it's a majority white district. I'm sure candidates like Lauren Underwood, Colin Allred, Andy Kim, and Antonio Delgado would disagree.

Yeah, I'm glad he lost.

[Jeppe]

Lacy Clay leading Cori Bush 65-30 in St. Louis City absentee votes.

[Jeppe]

In Michigan

MI-09 - 14% reporting
Andy Levin - 50.9%
Ellen Lipton - 43.5%
Martin Brook - 5.6%

MI-11 - 15% reporting
Haley Stevens - 27.0%
Tim Greimel - 22.5%
Suneel Gupta - 21.7%
Fayrouz Saad - 18.9%
Nancy Skinner - 10.0%

MI-13 (special) - 0% reporting
Brenda Jones - 41.8%
Rashida Tlaib - 37.6%
Ian Conyers - 13.0%
Bill Wild - 9.0%

MI-13 (general) - 0% reporting
Brenda Jones - 32.0%
Rashida Tlaib - 30.4%
Coleman Young - 15.8%
Bill Wild - 7.6%
Ian Conyers - 7.0%
Shanelle Jackson - 5.8%

[Jeppe]

Brent Welder - 36.1%
Sharice Davids - 31.2%
Tom Niermann - 18.4%
12% reporting

[Jeppe]

Thank god, Sharice Davids is closing the gap in KS-03. She should win at this rate. E-day votes were less of a massacre for her in Wyandotte (36% loss vs 24% loss), and she's increasing her lead in Johnson as e-day votes start trickling in (from 4% to 7% already).

I prefer Schrier in WA-08, and looking at the regional divides (Rittereiser only doing well in his home county, that's almost all reported), Schrier should win.

[Jeppe]

Welder is toast, Sharice Davids is doing too well among election day voters. A lot of Niermann voters must've jumped ship when they saw that it was a Welder vs. Davids battle.

[Jeppe]

It's just one data point but it's interesting that Tlaib leads by 5,500 for the general election but by only 1,500 for the special election (where there are less candidates on the ballot.)  This may suggest that the further left Democrats aren't likely to get the votes of those who are further left.

It's a race thing, Coleman Young & Shanelle Jackson (the two candidates not on the special election ballot) are both black. So is Brenda Jones.

[Jeppe]

With 100% of the vote reporting, Sharice Davids has won the KS-03 Democratic primary by a 37-34 margin over Brent Welder. Looks like Emily’s List’s $700,000 investment paid off.

[Jeppe]

> Be Sharice Davids
> Calls to abolish ICE
> Be called a Republican

[Jeppe]

Jahana Hayes is winning her race by a blow-out, winning every single town that's reported so far, mostly in the most Republican county.

[Jeppe]

Does Murphy still have a chance?

Zero chance. She needed to win the Twin Cities to have a chance, and Walz has won the Twin Cities. Murphy is also placing third in most of rural MN.

Technically, she won the Twin Cities (Minneapolis and St. Paul), she just lost the county of Hennepin by a small margin.

[Jeppe]

Ann Kirkpatrick is returning to Congress. She’s ahead of Matt Heinz by 10% (and 6,000 votes).

[Jeppe]

Ann Kirkpatrick is returning to Congress. She’s ahead of Matt Heinz by 10% (and 6,000 votes).

*600

It’s 6,000 now. Pima reported and went for Kirkpatrick.

[Jeppe]

Pressley likely wins, with these results.

https://twitter.com/BillForry/status/1037133629321879553

https://twitter.com/BillForry/status/1037133318863683584

https://twitter.com/JEThomas478/status/1037131923024474112

[Jeppe]

This is basically NY redux. The strongest candidate (AOC/Pressley) topples the incumbent, and the two sidekicks (Neal & Lynch challengers/Maloney & Clark challengers) get surprisingly close.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/nicholsmj/status/1037136111699746818

https://twitter.com/jonr7007/status/1037135309442633733

[Jeppe]

Looking like a Presley blowout so far. Capuano only won his hometown by 4 votes.

That was one precinct, although a fairly large one. It may not be indicative of the entire city, but it's definitely bad for Capuano.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/Occupied_Nation/status/1037137504871362561

https://twitter.com/CarCarll/status/1037137202348785664