Democrat Strongholds & Leans--297EVs (44-50% PV)
Republican Strongholds & Leans--203EVs (42-48% PV)
Green (or some variant) Strongholds & Leans--38EVs (8-12%PV)
Preface: No, I'm not on crack
(01) If the Democratic party becomes more populist (moderate-liberal social, moderate defense), they'll retake the South (it will also be the stronghold). This will be at the sacrafice of the Northeast and Upper-Midwest. Democrats will become the down-to-earth, bread & butter party--always maintaining a balanced budget (and targeted tax cuts to middle class for a persistant budget surplus). Republicans will remain conservative (except for their rubber-stamp, pork-barrel, spend-and-bankrupt fiscal agenda). Thus the third party will strip many moderates from both sides.
(02) Because Democrats will present themselves as the socially moderate party, a socially liberal--perhaps Libertarian or Green--party base will emerge in the North and a few Midwestern states. The most socially liberal states will indeed award their EVs to said party. For NY, MA, and VT, expect 50%I/25%R/25%D. Expect MN, IL, and the remaining Northeastern states to vote Republican (38%R/31%D/31%I). Arizona will also split almost evenly.
(03) Demographic voting patterns will also change. Blacks will be less monolithic (60D/35R/5I), Hispanics serve the populist base as well (55D/40R/5I), and Whites--even Southerners--will vote more evenly (45D/45R/10I).
(04) Idaho, Alabama, and Utah MAY (at least try to) secede. A mass exodus of black people from Alabama to NC, FL, GA, and--to a lesser extent--SC will leave Alabama homogeneous. More whites from surrounding southern states may take the place of blacks, thus stabilizing the population.
(05) Most of NC's population will consist of a megalopolis from Charlotte (moderate-to-high growth) to the Triad (decrease or stabilizing population) to the Research Triangle (high growth). BTW, UNC-Chapel Hill and Duke will rank among the top 5 universities. SC will see growth exclusively in the Lowcountry (Charleston on down). GA will taper off once the Atlanta suburbs/exurbs fill up, but there may be a small resurgence around Savannah. VA will boast one huge megalopolis from Richmond to DC. MD will continue moderate growth (transplants from NY, MA, PA, and OH).
(06) Expect third parties to be excluded from state ballots. Some states may adopt a "Choose two" (pick two and whomever receive the most votes wins) policy for ballots.
(07) Expect primary caucuses to be phased out. Bitter fights will ensue for which states will hold the first primaries.
(08) Expect to see a populist, down-to-earth female and/or minority President!!!
(09) EVs are apportioned according to the 2030 US Census projection figures featured in USA TODAY.
