Israel general discussion

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Former Education and Interior Minister and Bibi rival Gideon Sa'ar will announce his return to politics this evening.

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So is an election definitely happening this year? Things seem to have quieted down.

Probably not because of the broadcasting corporation- Kachlon bent and is currently allowing our corrupt Prime Minister to destroy Israeli democracy.
The investigations against Netanyahu continue but are going slower than expected, so to me it looks like it might slow to a halt, but if the investigations do escalate I see Netanyahu going mad over some issue again just to cause elections, so at this point, who knows?

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By the way, Labour leadership elections are officially in 4th of July. According to the bot in the phone poll I got today, recent polling indicates that Peretz and Gabay are leading.

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Poll of Labour's cadre:
Gabay 22%
Peretz 21%
Margalit 10%
Bar Lev 10%
Herzog 7% (lol)
Undecided 29%

Second round
Gabay 55%
Peretz 45%

Shame on margalit but at least Peretz misses out

I think that this one was requested by Gabay, since it has him in the runoff. Another one I got yesterday was probably from Margalit, since it had him in the runoff.

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The wishful thinking and borderline messianic obsession with wanting a new election in this thread is a bit amusing to me.

DavidB is, thankfully, right that Bibi would likely win the next election if it was called soon. However, it would hurt a good amount of his coalition partners.

Yisrael Beiteinu hasn't really proved its worth yet in the government (though, they have been more mild and consistent then I thought they would be at this point).

Kulanu would suffer massive losses if an election is called. Kahlon is not a good party leader and should really come home to Likud. Michael Oren and Yoav Galant were rumored to want to run in Likud primaries I remember hearing a few months ago. is this still true?

The Jewish Home opposes going to elections for the reasons outlined by Hnv1. I also don't think they would do as good as people think they would. They are just as ideologically bland and fake as Likud, the ZU and Yesh Atid, imo.

Also, none of Likud's opponents are in a position to win. Yair Lapid and Yesh Atid may have more public support but what coalition would they be able to form? religious parties will likely never sit w/ him.

ZU continues to be a joke and will continue to be so if Herzog stays on as leader.

a Ya'alon led party would be great for sh*ts an giggles but I don't think it would go very far.

To be honest, I'd prefer an alternative government over an election. But I'm also feeling immense fear for Israeli democracy under the unstable, paranoid, corrupt, power-hungry Netanyahu of 2017, so yes, I really want him replaced by an election or indiction.

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Amir Peretz is currently running a smear campaign against Avi Gabay, attacking the poll that had him leading (invited by Gabay, admittedly) as fake and sending Labour members a video where journalists are asking Gabay tough questions (without showing his answers, of course).

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Primaries:
JH primaries looking quite calm but I suspect Bennet will take around 70-75% of the votes this time instead 90+.

Labour primaries: Margalit launched his campaign (which looks best by my books), and ol'Peretz started a smear campaign against Gabbay. Bar Lev will probably drop out later to support Gabbay. Selectorate was reduced to 48K after thousands of faux members Peretz registered were wiped out.

Politics:
Supreme Court authorized Tel Aviv's city council by-law allowing some grocery stores to open on Saturdays, Deri'i who dragged his feet on the matter is "furious" and Shas+UTJ+JH are demanding a law to reverse the ruling and "defend the Sabbath". An excellent mine to blow up the coalition. Only Lieberman voiced his support of the ruling and Kachlon definitely won't fight over this topic. In addition, unlike last time no one else could form a government as neither Herzog or Lapid could agree to give the religious parties what they want. Bibi Must be delighted.

Wow, Peretz needs to be disqualified. Why aren't the others running a campaign against him to spread this deed of his to public knowledge?
Also, I seriously despise these Haredi parties and every single one of their members.

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The BY primary takes place today. Party leader Naftali Bennett should be safe. Voting started at 2PM at various polling stations across the country and will go on until 10. Results are supposed to come in at about 11, since voting takes place electronically. Turnout is over 25% already. Two candidates are trying to take on Bennett: Rabbi Yitzhak Zagha and Yonatan Branski, the former head of the religious army unit Nahal Haredi; both appear to be to Bennett's right.

I guess low turnout isn't really good for Bennett, since I assume the insurgent candidates have a generally more driven base, but Bennett is still very much safe.

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Knessetjeremy's polling average for March+April (change compared to Jan+Feb) in seats:
Yesh Atid 25.8 (-0.6)
Likud 25.6 (+2.6)
Joint Arab List 12.7 (+0.1)
Bayit Yehudi 12.1 (-0.1)
Zionist Union 10.7 (-0.3)
UTJ 7.3 (-0.3)
Kulanu 6.7 (+0.5)
Yisrael Beiteinu 6.6 (-1.2)
Shas 6.3 (-0.5)
Meretz 6.2 (-0.2)

Right-religious coalition 64.6 (+1)
Center-left-Arab opposition 55.4 (-1)

Secular center-right YA-Likud-Kulanu-YB currently numerically possible, but of course unlikely to happen, especially if another two-horse race with YA instead of ZU takes place. Lapid will also want to be PM.

Will Labour use the Zionist Union label again next time? What's the deal with Livni?

Didn't Livni get an offer for some job in the UN? If I were here, I'd take it, the Zionist Union probably won't continue.

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The BY primary takes place today. Party leader Naftali Bennett should be safe. Voting started at 2PM at various polling stations across the country and will go on until 10. Results are supposed to come in at about 11, since voting takes place electronically. Turnout is over 25% already. Two candidates are trying to take on Bennett: Rabbi Yitzhak Zagha and Yonatan Branski, the former head of the religious army unit Nahal Haredi; both appear to be to Bennett's right.

Both running on a lets-get-the-JH-to-become-more-religious again platform. I think Bennet feels like they could really stretch him as he's been touring the country for an otherwise boring election.

Labour leadership cadre confirmed:
Current leader Herzog (heading for a humiliating defeat)
Former leader MK Peretz (current front runner, socialist,  and a knob)
Former minister Avi Gabbay (strong contender, centrist)
MK Arel Margalit (running a leftist platform, most qualified as I see it)
MK Bar Lev (bland ex-general)
MG Amiram Levin (bland leftier ex-general)
Prof. Avner Ben Zaken (former Meretz member, mediocre academic and identity politics supporter)
Dina Dayan (orthodox Jew yet a feminist, probably going for name recognition before the next list election)
Hod Krovi (anonymous party member, supporter of the cooperative movement)

Avi Gabbay surprisingly announced he supports Shelly in the workers federation election hoping to lure some of her young "we don't get economics" voters to shift to him from Peretz. Cabel stayed out as well as Shaffir.

Margalit is running as a leftist now? Is that why you see him as the best one? It's weird to see a Meretz supporting saying he is the best candidate, unless you think he's good because he will lead Labor voters to switch to Meretz.

As for Ben Zaken, what does being an identity politics supporter entail in Israel? Hard to be deferential to minorities when your main minority group wishes the country didn't exist.

Also, wasn't there another general running, what happened to him?

Labour is a leftist party. Herzog and others kept trying tk run away from it, and it doesn't work, because the Israeli people still see them as leftists. Margalit is the only onevwho brings fresh ideas, and he doesn't run away from the party's identity- his campaign slogan is "the leftists are coming back".

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Willing to take a bet that Israel is not actually withdrawing from Eurovision.

It's not, the European media just misunderstood. Hopefully the new broadcasting corporation will be able to get us back in.

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With 30% of the votes counted (high turnout of 45%) Nissenkorn leads Yechimovic 59-41, full results tomorrow but I expect the margin to narrow not turn. So Shelly stays in the Knesset and will probably back Gabay for leadership.

* as suspected, countless claims of election fraud. Doesn't really matter
** I don't like Yechimovich but she ran Nissenkorn hard, impressive all in all when you consider she ran against a strong establishment and pretty much all the parties there including her own (part for shas)

I don't agree with her on everything, but I respect her. I really think that she was a much better candidate for the job than Nissenkorn, who is basically a corrupt member of the establishment that made the Worker's Organization so terrible.

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President Zeman is quite pro-Israel. I remember when he was Prime Minister in the 90s he suggested nuking the West Bank.

As far as I know, the parliamentary majority isn't favorable to him. I wonder what the party breakdown of that vote was.

Yeah, leaving the whole of Israel in a radioactive cloud is a famously pro-Israeli position

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Netanyahu chose Ayoob Kara as Minister of Communications. He was previously a Minister Without Portfolio, and the first Druze Minister in Israeli history.

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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-40240512

Netanyahu and his wife won a libel suit against a journalist who claimed Mrs. Netanyahu had thrown her husband out of a car in a convoy.

Meanwhile, Internal Security Minister Gilad Erdan falsely claimed that a Bedouin man killed in a car crash was an ISIS terrorist and got away with it. Sad.

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Yeah, these Labour polls are trash. Completely wild and unreliable, making it very hard to detect whichever ones are good. Also, is there any indication on who's leading in Meterz?

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New (hopefully trash) Labour poll:

Peretz- 25%
Herzog- 24% (lol)
Bar Lev- 17% (lol)
Gabay- 15%
Margalit- 15%
Others- 4%

What contributes to this poll being trash, you ask? It was sent to Labour members along with Herzog's famous warcry of "revolution!". Yeah, we know how the revolution worked last time around. Although, it does make sense to see Gabay decreasing, he has been viciously attacked from many sides lately. I honestly think running for leader was a political mistake for him.

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Polls are getting crazier by the day:

Herzog: 29%
Gabay: 22%
Margalit: 21%
Peretz: 19%
Bar Lev: 5%
Dina Dayan (an ultra-orthodox sephardic woman from the periphery- basically screams 'minority')- 2.5%
Amiram Levin (former General)- 1.5%

In other news, Ron Huldai, the Mayor of Tel Aviv, endorsed Herzog this week. It looks like the momentum IS with him, but I'm not sure just how strong he really is, with the polls being that fishy.
Also, Levin dropped out of the race today and endorsed Gabay. I'm not sure if it'll have any meaningful impact on the race, but maybe it will if the battle to get to the second round is tight enough.

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Polls are getting crazier by the day:

Herzog: 29%
Gabay: 22%
Margalit: 21%
Peretz: 19%
Bar Lev: 5%
Dina Dayan (an ultra-orthodox sephardic woman from the periphery- basically screams 'minority')- 2.5%
Amiram Levin (former General)- 1.5%

In other news, Ron Huldai, the Mayor of Tel Aviv, endorsed Herzog this week. It looks like the momentum IS with him, but I'm not sure just how strong he really is, with the polls being that fishy.
Also, Levin dropped out of the race today and endorsed Gabay. I'm not sure if it'll have any meaningful impact on the race, but maybe it will if the battle to get to the second round is tight enough.

Polls are useless here. Let's just refrain from spreading them.
The elections will be digital so we can expect results quickly (unlike the Peres Rabin thriller in 1980 where there was a 30 hours wait)

As I said that a poll with a firmer statistical base (3K members) was conducted and the results look to correlate with reality:
Peretz 33%
Gabay 22.9%
Margalit 17.9%
Herzog 14.75%
Bar Lev 8.45%
Others 3.10%

Margalit needs a push above Gabay to get to second round. I'd offer bar Lev the sun and the moon

Funny that no one saw fit to send this one to Labour members
Instead, they sent one where Bar Lev is at 21. Sigh.

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When do we get the result of this? Feels like this has been taking longer than the Democratic primary did.

Yeah, it's getting tiring. The first round is on July 4th, the second round, I believe, on July 14th.

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Labour Leadership primaries will take place tomorrow. We are now down to 7 contenders and 5 big ones so I will refer to it as the war of the five beggar kings. I anticipate Peretz to make it to the second round the rest is too fuzzy to determine. The amount of energy spent on this campaign was incredible considering the party is dying. Results will be announced tomorrow night.

Meretz convention rejected a proposal to move into an open primaries system (US style) and the decision to call an early leadership election was rejected by the party's tribunal as unconstitutional. Gilon and his followers demand Galon to resign.

Party politics elsewhere is in a slumber.

I endorse Margalit tomorrow and call for him to break away with Livni to join Galon in some new Liberal-progressive bloc (let Peretz and Gilon build their 1950's socialist party)

Yeah, I'm voting for Margalit tomorrow.
Also, polls sent to Labour members in the last few days were absolutely hilarious: in one occasion, they sent the results of a 'final poll', then sent them again with a correction, then sent them again with ANOTHER correction. And then it happened with yet another 'poll', this time only one correction.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Labour Leadership primaries will take place tomorrow. We are now down to 7 contenders and 5 big ones so I will refer to it as the war of the five beggar kings. I anticipate Peretz to make it to the second round the rest is too fuzzy to determine. The amount of energy spent on this campaign was incredible considering the party is dying. Results will be announced tomorrow night.

Meretz convention rejected a proposal to move into an open primaries system (US style) and the decision to call an early leadership election was rejected by the party's tribunal as unconstitutional. Gilon and his followers demand Galon to resign.

Party politics elsewhere is in a slumber.

I endorse Margalit tomorrow and call for him to break away with Livni to join Galon in some new Liberal-progressive bloc (let Peretz and Gilon build their 1950's socialist party)

Yeah, I'm voting for Margalit tomorrow.
Also, polls sent to Labour members in the last few days were absolutely hilarious: in one occasion, they sent the results of a 'final poll', then sent them again with a correction, then sent them again with ANOTHER correction. And then it happened with yet another 'poll', this time only one correction.

Is Margalit the most moderate?

As my old philosophy professor would have said, moderate is a concept with the extension of the empty set in Israel. I assume you're referring to dovish

And David, I do not believe in this great social injustice (data clearly points the other way), but I guess Ben Zaken is closest to what you're looking for (in Labour)

I was actually referring to economics, as the two state solution is rather complicated, but I doubt Labour will ever be too pro-Palestine for me.

Well, Margalit runs on his business record and on cooperation between businesses and government, so you could say he's less of a socialist than, say, Peretz. But with the rest, I'm not entirely sure- Gabay, for example, was also a businessman, so who knows, he could be even more economically moderate. This election is less about ideology, and more about who can find a way to revive Labour.

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Just cast my vote for Erel Margalit. When I came into the voting station, they got really excited about a youth voting... I think our political system has a problem
Also, 17% turnout for less than 3 hours after the voting opened seems not terrible, right?

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Just cast my vote for Erel Margalit. When I came into the voting station, they got really excited about a youth voting... I think our political system has a problem
Also, 17% turnout for less than 3 hours after the voting opened seems not terrible, right?

I saw the Jerusalem polling station. Loads of youth, probably students.

Not bad. Should be around 50-60% in the end I think

Considering I live in a Development town in the Galilee, and considering the rate youths leave these kinds of places, I guess it's justified to be surprised by the sight of any youth, let alone a youth voting in the Labour primaries.

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Just cast my vote for Erel Margalit. When I came into the voting station, they got really excited about a youth voting... I think our political system has a problem
Also, 17% turnout for less than 3 hours after the voting opened seems not terrible, right?

I saw the Jerusalem polling station. Loads of youth, probably students.

Not bad. Should be around 50-60% in the end I think

Considering I live in a Development town in the Galilee, and considering the rate youths leave these kinds of places, I guess it's justified to be surprised by the sight of any youth, let alone a youth voting in the Labour primaries.

Karmiel?

anyway this is the lowest electorate ever. last proper primaries were 1996, and the biggest were 1981.

Worse- Ma'alot.
Also, turnout at 20%, I guess it should increase when the workday is over.