Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[America Needs R'hllor]

DemCamp aren’t passing the threshold. B&W ate too much. Brace yourselves massive right victory in coming

Where are you seeing this?

Insiders from the exit polls and turnout data

I really hope you're wrong.

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Is this the right link to results ?

https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults

Nothing is there yet.

Yes. None yet

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Amir Ohana (Likud): "Trump is going to present the 100 days peace plan soon. If Amir Peretz sees it as a serious plan, he can bring back his mustache and say that he's willing to do that for peace."

LMAO

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Here is a question for Parrotguy and hnv. Why does Liberman do so well in Gush Halav? Is there a large Russian-speaking population there? If so, why and how?

Nope, no Russians. I know one person from there, and he's been a Meretz supporter but pretty anti-Muslim. I feel like this village, composed of mostly Christians, is just more right-wing than the general Arabic population, and Yisrael Beiteinu always had some support there.

I know the UTJ-Shas duo have a resilient floor, but do they have a ceiling? I.e. if the new government goes full secular, could the Haredi parties be the beneficiary of a religious backlash and win over Likud voters?

I'm curious too - wouldn't Shas have a theoretically higher ceiling based on being a kind of culturally Mizrahi protest option? Whereas I get the feeling UTJ don't go anywhere beyond the Haredi groups

Obviously there is vestigial Mizrahi tribalism in Shas, but Mizrahi identity politics have become less salient as Askenazim lose hold of broader Israeli culture. In other words, the country has become more Mizrahi and fighting the man (which is what Shas always purported to do) is much less fun when you ARE the man. The people who just want to own bourgeois Ashkenazim now vote for Likud (who are also bourgeois Ashkenazim, but whatever). And, frankly, the distinction between Mizrahi and Ashkenazi Haredism is far less meaningful these days (even though Ashkenazi discrimination against Mizrahim absolutely happens among Haredim). Haredim are Haredim and Mizrahi Haredim have blended in with their Ashkenazi counterparts in dress, politics, and even spiritual leadership.

Still, Shas are more of a cult- they have their dead Rabbie they constantly invoke, warning that he's looking from the sky, and more than UTJ they present voting for them as a sacred, holy duty.

Also, the updated results have Joint List rising by 1 and Likud falling one by. So left at 56, right at 55. I'm actually happy with the result. It'll be interesting to see what the soldier votes change- it seems like Labour-Gesher and the Democratic Camp are pretty close, so if I have to wager, the main candidates to get one more seat from this are the DC and Likud, while the main candidates to lose one are UTJ and maaaybe the Joint List (though I strongly doubt it, the prison votes are a thing). It will be pretty ironic if the soldier votes get another Arab back into the Knesset (Isawi Farij from Meretz).

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Above all, it's interesting that the conception that Netanyahu is some unearthly genius of a politician was blown to pieces. I mean, for years, this was the situation:

Bibi: farts
Israelis: Wow! What a poitical genius. Gantz\Herzog\Livni has no chance.

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Can someone explain something to me as someone who knows very little about Israeli politics?

From the coverage I've been reading, most of the stories say something like "the most likely coalition is Likud plus B&W plus Beitenu".

I understand why a coalition of B&W+Left Wing+Beitenu may be impossible, and a coalition of Right Wing+Beitenu may be impossible (since that is the whole reason the new election was called).

So it may be that any coalition would have to include both Likud and B&W.  But if this is the case, why would they include Beitenu at all.  Likud plus B&W is a majority, so why would they give away power to another party if they don't have to?

They don't have to include Beitenu, but it is generally preferred to include more than just the bare minimum repuired to form a coalition. This is because it makes individual rebels on a certain issue less powerful and means that they could have more members miss a vote in the knesset without losing the vote.

Yep. But the latest update has  Likud+KL at 65, so I think they'd not really need YB.

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With the final pre-double envelope vote, Blue And White goes up too 33 Likud goes up to 32, taking a seats from Beitenu (now 8 ) and The Joint List (12).

Where are you seeing this? The official results page is still stuck at the figures it's had for the past 7 hours or so.

A journalist that has numbers more updated than the official website:
https://twitter.com/amit_segal/status/1174372163547271171

Thanks.

Would you say the prison vote will probably bring Joint List back up to 13? And if so, which party is most likely to lose a seat?

Nah, the prison vote is smaller than the soldiers vote, which is obviously not going to be friendly to the Joint List. I'd say they stay at 12, still successful but not a huge surge. I'm hoping we'll see the day when Arabs vote like Jews and win 15 Seats regularly.

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Israeli posters, who did you vote for?

Democratic Camp- Meretz in the ballot. They ran a pretty bad campaign so I considered Labour-Gesher for a bit because Orly Levy is a queen, but I just couldn't give Peretz a prize for endangering the left-wing bloc.

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Israeli posters, who did you vote for?

Joint List

Surprised you'd vote for the Hadash commies, especially considering 5 of their seats are occupied by them rn

Also, this election really is an upset. No one expected such a weak Likud or right bloc showing. It's not even just thanks to Yisrael Beiteinu- currently, though it can change, Bibi's old natural coalition is just 63 seats, down from 65 last time. And considering YB absorbed many potential KL voters... Yeah.

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This might sound absurd, but could you ever see collaboration between the Haredi parties and the Islamist elements of Joint List? It's my understanding that (which could be false) that a lot of the ultra Orthodox are more interested in the "Jews get to live in traditional communities in the holy land" part of Zionism than the strong militarized state building, and in theory at least this is not different from the salafi instinct to not participate in the state, but build autonomous communities within.

The Israeli Posters will be able to answer this better, but as far as I understand, the Islamists in the Joint List, i.e. Raam, are affiliated with the Islamic Movement of Israel, who in turn, (at least the Northern Branch) are in a fold with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas (and, by Extension, Iran) - adversaries of the Saudi Wahhabi Salafism and the approach of the Saudis that is not to politically confront the Israeli State. So even among the Islamist Israeli Arabs there is much appetite to confront the Idea of Zionism, through elections of otherwise and not isolate themselves as the Haredim do vis-a-vis the secular Jews.

That said, I think there has been very low-level tacit agreement between Islamists and the Haredim on issues of opposing Conscription or Arab/Haredi Schools being forced to fly the National Flag, as Rafi Peretz wanted to. But there it is just different principles happening to align in common opposition to "godless" Zionism.

Just a small correction: Ra'am is affiliated with the southern branch of the Islamic Movement, more moderate than its outlawed northern counterpart.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Just a small correction: Ra'am is affiliated with the southern branch of the Islamic Movement, more moderate than its outlawed northern counterpart.

Are (religious) Arabs in the North more radically anti-Zionist than those in the South?

(And talking about that, are there any good maps of Arab vote?)

The population itself? I don't think so, I live in the north and the Arab villages around me are very peaceful. But their organization? Yes, very much so.
Idk about maps.

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If I am Gantz, this is what I do: approach the Haredi party leaders. Tell them that I want to create a government with Labour-Gesher, the Democratic Camp and themselves, a government inclusive and considerate for the interests of large Israeli minorities like the Haredim and the Arabs. And this is what I'd offer: a new contract for the relations of religion and state in Israel, wherein we completely give up trying to conscript the Haredi population, make sure they get the funding to keep living their way of life, and stop trying to ram down things they don't want into their education system, instead talking together to find ways to help Haredi students start their lives with equal opportunity. In exchange, we create a new status quo- civil marriage, a conversion reform that will help Russian immigrants, more equality for other sects of Judaism, and letting seculars live their lives by allowing public transportation and markets in Shabbat in secular areas. Live and let live.

I'd tell Deri and Litzman that they can take this chance and help me lead a government which also accepts the very reasonable and important demands of Ayman Odeh to improve the life quality of Arabs in exchange for outside support from the Joint List, and which leads a serious peace process to ensure a Jewish and democratic future. Either take this chance, or I'll eventually create a liberal secular government with Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, where what I described will happen anyway, but so will also the conscription of Haredim and intervention in their education system. Choose your poison.

[America Needs R'hllor]

If I am Gantz, this is what I do: approach the Haredi party leaders. Tell them that I want to create a government with Labour-Gesher, the Democratic Camp and themselves, a government inclusive and considerate for the interests of large Israeli minorities like the Haredim and the Arabs. And this is what I'd offer: a new contract for the relations of religion and state in Israel, wherein we completely give up trying to conscript the Haredi population, make sure they get the funding to keep living their way of life, and stop trying to ram down things they don't want into their education system, instead talking together to find ways to help Haredi students start their lives with equal opportunity. In exchange, we create a new status quo- civil marriage, a conversion reform that will help Russian immigrants, more equality for other sects of Judaism, and letting seculars live their lives by allowing public transportation and markets in Shabbat in secular areas. Live and let live.

I'd tell Deri and Litzman that they can take this chance and help me lead a government which also accepts the very reasonable and important demands of Ayman Odeh to improve the life quality of Arabs in exchange for outside support from the Joint List, and which leads a serious peace process to ensure a Jewish and democratic future. Either take this chance, or I'll eventually create a liberal secular government with Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, where what I described will happen anyway, but so will also the conscription of Haredim and intervention in their education system. Choose your poison.

Would Lapid go for that? I'd imagine that sort of move would threaten to tear Blue-White apart.

I'd imagine he'd not be happy, but at this point, this is Lapid's best chance at power. I'm pretty sure he'd receive huge backlash and end his career if he ends the center-left's first possibility for victory, especially if the Haredim will go for this agreement, which is everything the secular public actually needs.

Of course, this will never happen. Gantz won't try, and the haredim won't agree, even if it could be good for them, because they don't really want to live and let live. I'm just musing.

[America Needs R'hllor]

If I am Gantz, this is what I do: approach the Haredi party leaders. Tell them that I want to create a government with Labour-Gesher, the Democratic Camp and themselves, a government inclusive and considerate for the interests of large Israeli minorities like the Haredim and the Arabs. And this is what I'd offer: a new contract for the relations of religion and state in Israel, wherein we completely give up trying to conscript the Haredi population, make sure they get the funding to keep living their way of life, and stop trying to ram down things they don't want into their education system, instead talking together to find ways to help Haredi students start their lives with equal opportunity. In exchange, we create a new status quo- civil marriage, a conversion reform that will help Russian immigrants, more equality for other sects of Judaism, and letting seculars live their lives by allowing public transportation and markets in Shabbat in secular areas. Live and let live.

I'd tell Deri and Litzman that they can take this chance and help me lead a government which also accepts the very reasonable and important demands of Ayman Odeh to improve the life quality of Arabs in exchange for outside support from the Joint List, and which leads a serious peace process to ensure a Jewish and democratic future. Either take this chance, or I'll eventually create a liberal secular government with Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, where what I described will happen anyway, but so will also the conscription of Haredim and intervention in their education system. Choose your poison.

That's exactly what I would do. And frankly it would probably he the healthiest option for fractured Israeli society. But the Haredim have become so glued to the nationalist right that they may oppose it on ideological grounds and simply push for a third election. Any concessions would be a tough bullet to bite, although Gantz could take drafting Haredim off the table in exchange for concessions on public transit and the like in non-Haredi areas. The Haredim can be very pragmatic, and they were once the "natural partners" with Labor in government.

[redacted]

... No? If you're done ranting, these are the four Odeh terms which I very much endorse, and think that entire Israeli left should:
1. On planning and construction, freeze the demolition of buildings in Arab towns in private property, help equalize the construction startings of Arab and Jewish areas and build a new Arab city.
2. Violence: take away the many guns in the Arab public, combat criminal organizations and fight the crime rampant in the Arab areas.
3. Welfare- building a new public hospital in an Arab city, raise old age pensions, increase funding of shelters for victims of domestic violence.
4. The Palestinian issue- repeal the Nation State Law and renew negotiations with the Palestinians, work towards ending the military occupation.

Completely sensible and good policy, regardless of politics.

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For some reason I had this idea that Eilat would be a more
Left-leaning place since it’s widely regarded as a hedonistic “sin city” in Israel

A lot of the more "medium" sized places in Israel are likud/religious-right strongholds. This is because of other factors than their size, but it's a trend nonetheless.

I’m aware of that but I had this idea that Eilat was an exception because it’s sort of the Miami Beach of Israel. What religious nut would live in a place with so much mixed sunbathing?

The population of Eilat aren’t the hotel goers, any native I’ve ever met was pretty much hardcore Ars (chav), also very very predominantly Sephardi

I was in Eilat few years ago and did notice the locals were unusually creepy. They were loud, clingy and the phrases "kapara" and "sababa" were annoyingly overused.  
My Israeli girlfriend mentioned people refer to them as "arsim", but Eilat also has a large tourist population from all over Israel, people come and go.

The beaches were nice in Eilat, but I found places like Acadia beach in Herzliya much more appealing.

Well yeah, that's Israeli slang. Kapara is weird to me and I never used it, but sababa is completely fine

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Rivlin says he wants a grand coalition with a rotation agreement. The good news is that he seems to think Likud's insistence that this also throw in the other right-wing parties for good measure is ridiculous; the bad news is that when the KL MKs mentioned Bibi's legal woes, Rivlin pointed out that he hasn't been indicted yet.

Not particularly bad- an indictment should come soon enough, perhaps even before the deadline for government formation.

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Why is it a stupid idea? The sooner Gantz can prove Netanyahu has no shot at forming the government, the sooner Gantz has a realistic shot at forming a unity government with a non-Netanyahu Likud.

Yes, I assume this is the aim. The problem? It requires putting his trust in Lieberman. Not good!

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Rivlin is basically treating Gantz and Netanyahu as equals in every way despite Netanyahu's legal problems, refusal to return the mandate last time, his attempt to go to war to save his skin, his various anti-democratic ambitions and his stupid charade with the "Likud-Haredim-Smotrich" bloc. It's akin to treating the allies and the axis as equals after world war 2.

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Is there any truth to the claim that Likud is winning the PR battle or is that just spin?

I don't see it anywhere.

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Any updates?

Lieberman called Miri Regev a beast but that's about it

more like an animal "you're an animal".

I think Bibi is unsure whether to return the mandate yet or not.

No, "בהמה" is definitely "beast."

Bibi only has a month left before he has to return the mandate. Every day he hangs onto it, though, the more he looks like a loser.

He'll keep the mandate till the last moment.

Giving it back is basically accepting defeat which he won't willingly do. Not while he still has a fighting chance, at least.

Lieberman did say today that Bibi is preventing a unity government and that he's waiting for the mandate to go to Gantz. With that in mind, there's nothing Bibi can do, so I'm actually surprised he's keeping the mandate and thus giving the AG more time to indict him before an election is forced.

Granted, Lieberman IS giving mixed signals- his plan for a unity government includes Bibi giving up on his bloc, and Gantz... accepting Bibi as the first in the rotation. Which is obviously a terrible deal for KL, since they'd be basically giving up the Prime Ministership despite winning the election (no way they'd get their time in the rotation lol) and Bibi gets to just betray his partners. If I was Bibi, I'd jump on the opportunity. It's kinda KL's fault, to be honest- they have their own partners in Labour-Gesher and Democratic Camp, so they'd be giving up on them too in a unity government, but they didn't make it an issue.

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Likud proposed a “unity government” with status quo on state and religion and Netanyahu as PM. Blue and White said no.

As far as I can tell, it's a "compromise proposal" in which Bibi doesn't actually compromise on anything.

"You'll compromise on every basic promise you gave to your voters and completely surrender on policy substance, and we'll agree to sit with you "

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https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-likud-hoping-to-tempt-gantz-to-join-coalition-break-up-blue-and-white/

Lol  this guy. Must be the sorest loser in human history.

...this is definitely not happening, right?

Yeah, Gantz won't break the alliance.

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Lmao me

Mk Oded Furer (YB) saying they don't overrule the joint list and want to discuss the outline for government first.

a. Hell is freezing over
b. the Austrian coalition really wants Bibi out

Damn. This will kill them with the Russian base. Link?

Joint List says they'd be happy to talk to Gantz about a confidence and supply agreement, says a report Haaretz. But, like hnv1 alluded to, they fear that minority government talk may be a tool to force the Likud into a national unity agreement.

 I tend to think it's both. Surely Blue and White would prefer a secular national unity government led by Gantz, and fear about how massively a leftist government could kneecap Bibi and the right may push the Likud to try to deal. On the other hand, I suspect that the left and Arab parties really are serious about creating a minority government if the Likud cannot be moved.

Is the Rabin coalition an option? Blue and White, Labor, Meretz and Shas with The Joint List supporting from the outside?

This is what Democratic Camp figures like Horowitz and Shaffir are trying to push, but Shas consistently swore to remain loyal to the Emperor.

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https://www.timesofisrael.com/odeh-calls-on-gantz-to-show-courage-and-invite-arab-parties-to-join-government/

Revolutionary.

As much as I'd love to see this happen, it's just not possible right now. Gantz needs Liberman on board, and it's already a tall order to make him swallow relying on the Arab parties for confidence and supply. Having them actually in government is a nonstarter.

Not sure about this article, but in Hebrew sources I've seen Odeh talking about support from outside.

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the suggestion I floated a day after the election is now gaining momentum, instead of a third election we'll have a special direct elections to the PM post, winner is automatically PM and you need 61 votes and an alternative government to oust him

I have to assume Bibi would be favored at the beginning of a campaign of this kind, albeit not massively so?

First poll had Bibi leading Gantz 40-36 with 24% undecided. Very bad initial polling for Bibi

Considering "match for PMship" polls always had Bibi with massive leads, it's a very interesting change.

Btw, as someone with some knowledge of law, what do you think of the newest revelation by Israel's Ben Shapiro?