2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[LimoLiberal]

Republicans surging after Tax Reform passage in Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot Tracking:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170901-20171205/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

(You have to click on "Midterms: How will you vote?")

[LimoLiberal]

Republicans surging after Tax Reform passage in Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot Tracking:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170901-20171205/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

(You have to click on "Midterms: How will you vote?")

You must have really had to dig hard for this one, lol.

On the State Legislator Special Election megathread, he's speculating about trends because Rs just won a state senate seat in MA after a MS non-partisan election where the Indy announced after winning he was caucusing for Republicans. Combined with his gloom and doom on the Northam threads, it's clear what's going on here.

He's user Andrew_1918 on RRH, in case anyone was wondering. Not that hard to figure it out if one reads enough of their posts

I've never used RRH in my life. Don't know why you think that.

[LimoLiberal]

Wow, look at the Republicans surging in the generic ballot: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Morning Consult and Reuters/Ipsos both have substantial swings to Republicans.
Looks like tax reform + democratic sexual misconduct scandals has payed off.

[LimoLiberal]

Another one: http://www.philly.com/philly/news/ex-staffers-sen-daylin-leach-crossed-a-line-with-sex-talk-inappropriate-touching-20171217.html

Democrats have lost two top-tier candidates in competitive house races in the past week.

[LimoLiberal]

A Dem internal poll has Ed Royce in CA-39 up 48-44. https://www.scribd.com/document/367450908/CA-39-Tulchin-Research-for-Gil-Cisneros-Nov-2017

[LimoLiberal]

Dem internal poll has Ed Royce in CA-39 up 48-44. https://www.scribd.com/document/367450908/CA-39-Tulchin-Research-for-Gil-Cisneros-Nov-2017

Ike Skelton had a ten-point lead a week before election day.

Turnout differentials, turnout differentials.

The trump approval number is nowhere where it need to be for Democrats. Clinton won this district 51.5-42.9. Trump is only underwater in approval 41-56. That is legitimately terrific for Trump considering his nationwide approval ratings.

[LimoLiberal]

Yikes. Dem internal poll has Ed Royce in CA-39 up 48-44. https://www.scribd.com/document/367450908/CA-39-Tulchin-Research-for-Gil-Cisneros-Nov-2017

Throws some cold water on the hopes of a California sweep.

It's been clear for a while that Royce is in a much better position than Issa/Rohrabacher.

I believe that if Democrats can't win his district, they're not winning back the house. It went to Clinton by 8.5 points, the most out of any of those OC districts.

[LimoLiberal]

Interesting. New Mclaughlin poll has Democrats narrowly leading the generic ballot 45-44.

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2017/12/20/december-national-survey-results/

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats 50.1%
Republicans 37.3%

I'd bet a thousand dollars they're below 48 by the 10th of January due to Tax Reform Bump.

I'm absolutely willing to take this wager. Pollsters will slow down polling during Christmas/New Year's anyway. Do you have Venmo?

The bet was between me and myself unfortunately.

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats 50.1%
Republicans 37.3%

I'd bet a thousand dollars they're below 48 by the 10th of January due to Tax Reform Bump.

I'm absolutely willing to take this wager. Pollsters will slow down polling during Christmas/New Year's anyway. Do you have Venmo?

The bet was between me and myself unfortunately.

Interesting. Hmm.

To be more specific, it was between me and the voice "Rick" in my head. Other voices are more conservative, Rick is center-left.

[LimoLiberal]

YouGov, Dec 24-26, 1500 adults

D 44 (nc)
R 36 (+1)

Beautiful Tax Reform Bump.

[LimoLiberal]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

She doesn't meet the age requirement for office.

She’s been in the navy for 20 years... how would a 20-year old be a veteran anyway?

Horrible luck?

In any case, I felt pretty solid on Taylor being able to win reelection...until now. The best bet to take out a guy whose military experience is the cornerstone of his campaign is by running another vet against him.

I doubt Taylor loses. People here seem to like his faux moderate persona. This is a great candidate field by the DCCC though.

I honestly think Brat is more likely to go down than him. Brat is odious and far-right in a district Republicans are absolutely tanking in. But if Stewart wins the senate nom, the wave sometimes doesn't give a  about how nice the candidates are. Plenty of examples of this in 2010 and even in the HOD races. David Yancey, by all means, was a great delegate and good fit for his district. Didn't really matter, even though he far outran Gillespie.

[LimoLiberal]

Yougov has D+6, down from D+8. That's not good enough to win the house.

[LimoLiberal]

Reuters/Ipsos
1/1-1/4

Democrats: 41% (-4)
Republicans: 34 (+1)

The week before was D+12 and the week before that was D+15. Now they're at D+7. Not enough to take the house.

That has to be worrying for Democrats.

[LimoLiberal]

Politico/Morning Consult, Jan 4-5, 1988 RV (change from Dec 14-18)

D 44 (nc)
R 36 (+2)

Big advantage, but slightly worrying tendency for Democrats

Morning Consult has historically been one of the most R leaning polls for the generic ballot (and Trump approval). They had R+1 in their early november poll, and D+2 a month ago.

[LimoLiberal]

Even as Democrats celebrate special elections in the Midwest, they're generic ballot advantage continues to to collapse. Only 1 of the last 11 generic ballot polls have Ds up +10 or more, a far cry from mid-December where polls showed them consistently in the +10-15 range. Coupled with Donald Trump's rising approval rating, confident predictions of a blue wave should not be as certain.

[LimoLiberal]

Even as Democrats celebrate special elections in the Midwest, they're generic ballot advantage continues to to collapse. Only 1 of the last 11 generic ballot polls have Ds up +10 or more, a far cry from mid-December where polls showed them consistently in the +10-15 range. Coupled with Donald Trump's rising approval rating, confident predictions of a blue wave should not be as certain.

I'm confused - Winning by 8-9 points as opposed to a tsunami of 11 - 13 points is not a wave? This is another example of shifting goalposts. Democrats were in wave territory before December, but now that everyone got excited about double digit polls, anything less than that is suddenly a "collapse" and uncertain of a wave?

Sheesh. Come on LimoLiberal.

If the election were to be held today and the average gcb poll was correct, it would be a democratic wave. I'm pointing out that the trend is not in Democrat's favor, with both Donald Trump's approval rating rising and their generic ballot advantage eroding. So a wave would happen today, but if trends keep going like they already are, it would not be so giant come November.

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

[LimoLiberal]

Has anyone offered any explanation as to why Trump's approvals have surged so much in the past few weeks? And the generic ballot surge for Republicans?

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

*Ignores fundraising numbers, special elections, GOP resignations, human capital of dem nominees, presidential approval, etc.

All I am saying - all - is that if the generic ballot is D+4.5 the Democrats will likely not win the House and there will not be a massive wave. Obviously the fundraising, retirements, etc. correlate more with the high Democratic generic ballot leads.

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

*Ignores fundraising numbers, special elections, GOP resignations, human capital of dem nominees, presidential approval, etc. Not to mention that Morning Consult has always been R friendly and YouGov not being the most reliable pollster.

Just because a pollster is R friendly doesn't mean one should ignore its trends over time. MC was 41-55 Dec 14-18. Now its 45-50. Big shift.

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats still lead by 11 points in the RCP average and 7.9% in 538. Their TAX REFORM BUMP is fading slightly and Trump got a holiday bump(plus Gallup's tracking poll being gone skewed the average) but Democrats are still in a great position to win in the midterms, as shown by the fundamentals, polls and actual results so far.

False. Both Trump's approval rating and Republican's standing in the generic ballot has not stopped going up. There is no sign of "fading".

[LimoLiberal]

I don't know how much of this is my personality, how much is my (mild) anxiety disorder, and how much of it is my memory of 2016, when I was VERY worried, was convinced to calm down, and then Trump won. Or that the last time we won a midterm was when I was 10.

Speaking quite frankly here, I believed 2016 had potential to be a decent-sized blowout (by modern standards) just based on Trump alone, and if the election had been held when certain scandals/drama hit, like the AH tape or the Khan stuff, that might have happened, but when you look at all the other characteristics of a wave, they just weren't there in 2016. No enthusiasm advantage. Shabby recruitment. Generic polls that barely held at mid-single digits and only very briefly spiked to low double digits at the peak of a new Trump scandal, only to recede quickly. And most of all, with a Democrat in the White House for the past 8 years, that still meant the party would pay a penalty as they usually do. Most of the signs indicated a closer election than many of us thought, and I like many others chose to ignore that because I believed Trump was just too bad of a person for America to vote in.

Contrast to 2018, with a deeply unpopular Republican president who has caused arguably the biggest surge of activism on the left in a generation or two, a massive, unprecedented surge in Democratic candidates running, huge fundraising spikes, a big enthusiasm advantage and consistently strong generic polls that often veer into double digit territory, there is every reason to believe that 2018 will be a wave year. This is all on top of 538 showing that generic polls a year out are often predictive of the final result, and more often than not, it skews even more in favor of the party that doesn't control the White House.

Even after being more cautious due to 2016's shock result, I find it impossible not to be bullish for the Democratic Party's chances in 2018. I don't care if we backslide for a couple months here and there. I'm sure that, as Trump being who he is, Democrats will surge back eventually. Trump is simply too polarizing and too offensive to do what he needs to do to actually maintain a 45-50% approval. IMO, he's probably destined to stay at <40% for most of his presidency.

Well when you put it like this...

[LimoLiberal]

It’s so obvious the Democratic generic ballot lead is collapsing, at this rate Republicans could have a 1-2 point generic ballot lead by November. The biggest problem for Democrats is that when the Dow Jones is hitting records every day (it’s going to be 30,000 by the midterms), and the GDP is growing at 3% every quarter people don’t feel compelled to throw the Incumbent party out of Congress.

Oh really? Tell that to Senator-elect Jarchow.

Seriously Lear, we are sick of this. Enough with your bullsh**t.

[LimoLiberal]

Marist/NPR, 1350 adults, Jan 8-10 (change from last month)

D 46 (-4)
R 40 (+3)

Not enough to win the house. Bad trend for Democrats.