2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original (user search)
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 210103 times)
LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #25 on: January 31, 2018, 06:30:38 PM »

Decided to come back just because of this mean comment.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #26 on: February 01, 2018, 10:54:25 AM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/02/01/that-upcoming-democratic-rout-suddenly-its-looking-far-less-certain/?utm_term=.08fad78eabb1


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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #27 on: February 11, 2018, 11:17:24 AM »
NEW POLL: PA-15 (current version)

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-15th-district-congress-poll-dent-trump-casey-20180208-story,amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

Remember this is a Trump +8 district

Generic D: 38
Generic R: 35

  • Casey above water 34-31
    Wolf above water 37-32
    Trump disapproval 56%, approval not given.
    Tax bill above water 42-39
    Dent highly popular.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #28 on: February 13, 2018, 11:14:56 AM »
https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/963444553964511232

Yikes. Red alert.

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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #29 on: February 13, 2018, 11:58:22 AM »

People are willfully ignoring evidence.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #30 on: February 13, 2018, 03:38:46 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 13, 2018, 03:12:48 PM
Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 8-12, 1268 RV

D 43, R 35 (D+8)

Previous poll was D 42, R 37



538 average is up to D+7. I wonder when that Priorities USA poll was taken.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #31 on: February 14, 2018, 08:25:04 AM »
Morning Consult

R+1

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/14/trump-polling-democrats-republicans-407315
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2018, 09:50:31 AM »
Just putting this here so we have a record: https://twitter.com/meredithk27/status/963614105717362688

Cathy McMorris-Rodgers: 47
Lisa Brown: 43

-6 job approval.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #33 on: February 14, 2018, 09:59:41 AM »
Quote from: DTC on February 14, 2018, 09:52:41 AM
Quote from: Arkansas Yankee on February 14, 2018, 09:18:05 AM
PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

PA 18 will be Saccone +8 imo. Trump won it by almost 20 and the gop is investing a ton into it.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #34 on: February 14, 2018, 06:37:31 PM »
Yougov went from D+6 to D+4.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #35 on: February 14, 2018, 08:56:49 PM »
PPP for Matt Heinz in AZ-02 (McSally's old seat)

Both Dems are matched up against Lea Marquez Peterson, presumed R nominee

Heinz (D) leads by 14 (45-31)

Kirkpatrick (D) leads by 9 (43-34)

Trump is only below water in job approval 45-51. He lost AZ-02 45-50.

https://www.scribd.com/document/371462388/AZ-02-PPP-D-for-Matt-Heinz-Feb-2018
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #36 on: February 14, 2018, 09:25:24 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on February 14, 2018, 09:21:23 PM
"only" below water. a -9 approval in ARIZONA is enough for it to flip for even the most mediocre Dem candidate.

He is -6 in job approval in a district he lost by 5. That bodes well for him statewide. I think you're misunderstanding my post.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #37 on: February 15, 2018, 09:08:07 PM »
Trying to have a running record of all polls here.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #38 on: February 16, 2018, 05:49:38 PM »

No signs of recovery for Democrats even after what should've been a bad few weeks for Republicans.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #39 on: February 19, 2018, 01:04:29 PM »

For reference, in 2016 the GOP won 57-37. Sessions, Hurd, and Culberson are probably f**ked if this is right.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #40 on: February 20, 2018, 04:49:41 PM »
Quinnipiac poll not being corroborated at all. Reuters/Ipsos goes from D+6 to D+6.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #41 on: February 21, 2018, 09:01:57 AM »
Would love to see these. But behind the politico pro wall.

https://twitter.com/POLITICOPro/status/966297705575264257

[quote]New polls show Democrats ahead in 11 House districts. The details from @ec_schneider: http://politico.pro/2EU84ih
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #42 on: February 21, 2018, 12:07:29 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on February 21, 2018, 11:48:44 AM
PPP polled 14 House districts.
Don't have time to write more details so feel free to do so.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/2c7561_1536971fc62f48d080ed80a77ed8708c.pdf

These are pretty meh to be honest. Super close races for all.

CA-25: Generic D leads Knight (R, i) 44-42 (D+2)
CA-39: Generic D leads Generic R 45-43 (D+2)
CA-49: Generic D leads Generic R 50-41 (D+9)
FL-27: Generic D leads Generic R 54-39 (D+15)
IA-1: Finkenauer (D) leads Blum (R, i) 43-42 (D+1)
KS-2: Davis (D) leads Generic R 44-42 (D+2)
KY-6: Generic D leads Barr (R, i) 44-43 (D+1)
ME-2: Generic D leads Poliquin (R, i) 45-44 (D+1)
MI-11: Generic D leads Generic R 45-42 (D+3)
MN-3: Dean Phillips (D) leads Paulsen (R, i) 46-43 (D+3)
NJ-11: Mikie Sherill (D) losing to Generic R 40-42 (R+2)
NY-19: Generic D tied with Faso (R, i) 42-42 (tied)
TX-23: Generic D losing to Hurd (R, i) 43-44 (R+1)
WA-8: Generic D leads Dino Rossi (R) 44-43 (D+1)
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #43 on: February 21, 2018, 02:59:50 PM »
That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #44 on: February 21, 2018, 03:19:42 PM »
Quote from: Devout Centrist on February 21, 2018, 03:13:05 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on February 21, 2018, 02:59:50 PM
That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.

Will you delete your account if the House flips?

No? I'll be extremely happy?
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #45 on: February 21, 2018, 04:05:24 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on February 21, 2018, 03:44:02 PM
NEW YouGov/Economist poll:

(2/18-2/20)

Democrats: 43% (+1)
GOP: 35% (-3)

Collapse

Trump's approval is at one of its highest points ever in this poll (-7) but Democrats are performing even better than that on the generic ballot. Interesting.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #46 on: February 21, 2018, 04:22:49 PM »
https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/966398760732512257

Chavez (R) and Harkey (R) are the top-two even if Jacobs (D) and/or Kerr (D) drop out. The only time Democrats make the top-two is if either Levin (D) or Applegate (D) drops out, than the other advances.

Major panic time for those counting on California flips.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #47 on: February 21, 2018, 05:05:10 PM »
Harris Interactive:

Dems lead 41-36 (D+5)

No prior poll to compare with.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #48 on: February 22, 2018, 03:58:55 PM »

Strong position for Love. No blue wave in Utah.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #49 on: February 22, 2018, 05:21:12 PM »

I would love to see the ordering of the questions there. Looks suspicious to me.
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