2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[LimoLiberal]

Marist Poll:

46% Democrat (-3)
39% Republican (+1)
6% Neither (+1)
10% Undecided (+2)

Source

Still better than January for Democrats.

Democrats slipping again. Oh well.

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

No dude. Today I went to English class, did a timed writing about Catcher in the Rye, and then AP GOV, where we learned about party primaries (I already know a lot). Now I have a little free time. I'm going to continue countering your bullsh**t with my actual life until you stop with the RRH stuff.

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

I can explain it. PNM thinks that I am secretly this user "Andrew" on RRH, and constantly mentions it, especially when I post something that contradicts the blue wave narrative. I have never used RRH, do not use RRH, don't really have the time to use more than one political forum, and am sick of it.

RRH is like the conservative daily kos I think. But I don't know what the letters RRH stand for.

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

No dude. Today I went to English class, did a timed writing about Catcher in the Rye, and then AP GOV, where we learned about party primaries (I already know a lot). Now I have a little free time. I'm going to continue countering your bullsh**t with my actual life until you stop with the RRH stuff.

...

Lol I spend hours on political forums and websites. That doesn't make me an expert by any means. But the AP GOV class, designed for teenagers with little to no political knowledge, is obviously easier for me. Not me bragging, just you being a jerk.

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

No dude. Today I went to English class, did a timed writing about Catcher in the Rye, and then AP GOV, where we learned about party primaries (I already know a lot). Now I have a little free time. I'm going to continue countering your bullsh**t with my actual life until you stop with the RRH stuff.

...

Lol I spend hours on political forums and websites. That doesn't make me an expert by any means. But the AP GOV class, designed for teenagers with little to no political knowledge, is obviously easier for me. Not me bragging, just you being a jerk.

Perhaps pay attention more when they go over voting theory and rationality then, since your Governor Gillespie and Senator Moore +27 predictions were so wonderfully indicative of your political knowledge.

Any prediction I've made in any election has 1000 times the merit of you calling me Andrew for two months, no matter how wrong they were.

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

No dude. Today I went to English class, did a timed writing about Catcher in the Rye, and then AP GOV, where we learned about party primaries (I already know a lot). Now I have a little free time. I'm going to continue countering your bullsh**t with my actual life until you stop with the RRH stuff.

...

Lol I spend hours on political forums and websites. That doesn't make me an expert by any means. But the AP GOV class, designed for teenagers with little to no political knowledge, is obviously easier for me. Not me bragging, just you being a jerk.

Perhaps pay attention more when they go over voting theory and rationality then, since your Governor Gillespie and Senator Moore +27 predictions were so wonderfully indicative of your political knowledge.

Lol I'm sure I could find a post in your history from early January saying "Trump's approval rating is going to fall as soon as his holiday bump fades" and "the generic ballot can only get worse for Republicans".

[LimoLiberal]

I would appreciate if a mod deleted these woefully off-topic posts. I don't really care for conflict. I just want it so every time I post something I don't get referred to as "Andrew from RRH".

[LimoLiberal]

PPP for Mike Levin:

Mike Levin (D): 47
Rocky Chavez (R): 39

Trump approval is 44-55.

http://act.boldprogressives.org/survey/2018polling_ca49/?source=e180224_0349-fin-ca49-inf&recurring=24&amount=10&refcode2=51451&t=3

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

He's user Andrew_1918 there and it's been known for a while. They post the exact same links with the same curt comments like "Hmm... interesting" or "GOP bump" to every poll that shows Republicans doing abnormally well (but never any poll showing Democrats doing well). Oh, and the time stamps are a little too coincidental.

Ever since Andrew has been caught, he's been trying to half-assedly trick other people into believing that he's really a Democrat by making some over-compensating remark once in a blue moon about someone like Linda Belcher or Heidi Heitkamp or what have you.

It's utterly adorable, not to mention quite telling, that win limo liberal, oh, I mean Andrew, gets effectively and very oh, I mean Andrew, gets called out with very very specific evidence showing he's just Richard 1918 from rrh, he utterly duct the accusation and hoped no one would notice. Afterwards in another post he very lamely bakes the moderators to expunge all these damning posts exposing him.

Andrew, come out of the closet. You are apparently a happy little conservative out and about on rrh, so your Troll game here is up. Come out of the closet and just join our happy little world of politics junkies. But do so is yourself, not this lame-ass sock of a concern troll unconvincingly claiming to be a liberal Democrat. Just acknowledge haha it's been fun now let me tell you why I think the Republicans might keep the House and Senate blah blah blah and we can have intelligent and fun discourse and debate.

Until then, this troll action shows you're just a pussy, Andrew. Man up.

Wow. Someone had a bad day at home. Hope things are better for you in the future.

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

He's user Andrew_1918 there and it's been known for a while. They post the exact same links with the same curt comments like "Hmm... interesting" or "GOP bump" to every poll that shows Republicans doing abnormally well (but never any poll showing Democrats doing well). Oh, and the time stamps are a little too coincidental.

Ever since Andrew has been caught, he's been trying to half-assedly trick other people into believing that he's really a Democrat by making some over-compensating remark once in a blue moon about someone like Linda Belcher or Heidi Heitkamp or what have you.

It's utterly adorable, not to mention quite telling, that win limo liberal, oh, I mean Andrew, gets effectively and very oh, I mean Andrew, gets called out with very very specific evidence showing he's just Richard 1918 from rrh, he utterly duct the accusation and hoped no one would notice. Afterwards in another post he very lamely bakes the moderators to expunge all these damning posts exposing him.

Andrew, come out of the closet. You are apparently a happy little conservative out and about on rrh, so your Troll game here is up. Come out of the closet and just join our happy little world of politics junkies. But do so is yourself, not this lame-ass sock of a concern troll unconvincingly claiming to be a liberal Democrat. Just acknowledge haha it's been fun now let me tell you why I think the Republicans might keep the House and Senate blah blah blah and we can have intelligent and fun discourse and debate.

Until then, this troll action shows you're just a pussy, Andrew. Man up.

Wow. Someone had a bad day at home. Hope things are better for you in the future.

Actually a rather good day, thank you, but thanks for playing.

But hey, if somehow trying to distract from the fact that it supposedly grown man invests hours a day into a juvenile hobby of trolling a politics website, and somehow wants to clean that's because MY personal life has issues, well, Whatever Gets You Through the Night

Honestly hope you feel better and can unplug yourself from the vitriol. I know I am trying to do the same.

[LimoLiberal]

Anything from those Suffolk and CNN polls?

[LimoLiberal]

R-internal has Dems up 5

American Action Network:

Democrats: 42.5%
GOP: 37.5%

Decimals making me cringe.

source?

[LimoLiberal]

I have a feeling Don Young could actually be vulnerable if that polling is accurate.

D+16 would be almost unprecedented in the modern era so I doubt it would happen, though polling could certainly look like that going into early November. But the real amazing, beautiful results for Democrats here is that enthusiasm gap.

[LimoLiberal]

PPP poll of CO-06, on behalf of End Citizens United: Crow (D) +5

Jason Crow (D) - 44%
Mike Coffman (R) - 39%

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CO-06-Survey-2-1.pdf

Pretty bad for an internal push poll.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/LoganDobson/status/968243974191411202

[LimoLiberal]

http://act.boldprogressives.org/survey/2018polling_ca45/?source=e180224_0349-fin-ca49-inf&recurring=24&amount=10&refcode2=51451&t=7


CA-45 - PPP

Mimi Walters 42%
Katie Porter 16%
David Min 12%
Brian Ford 4%
Kia Hamandanchy 6%
Not sure 21%


Katie Porter 46%
Mimi Walters 44%
Not sure 10%

David Min 45%
Mimi Walters 44%
Not sure 11%

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?
Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%

[LimoLiberal]

I made a google spreadsheet where I'm going to be posting House and Senate polls along with context: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lEBtD0DPaliUWSZQclSl_HqTZAO_bRrxjDRZPPrAKgM/edit?usp=sharing

Feel free to view. (John Smith is not my real name).

[LimoLiberal]

Democratic lead on the generic ballot collapses on the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll going from D+8 to D+4. Consistent with Rasmussen showing a Trump and Republican surge.

[LimoLiberal]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

Most polls showing movement to Republicans now.

[LimoLiberal]

USA TODAY/Suffolk has a GCB of D +15 (47-32):

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/03/01/voters-vow-elect-congress-stands-up-trump-poll-shows/376578002/

Paging King Lear and LimoLiberal.

House and Senate polls don't matchup with the 14-16 point leads on the generic ballot some outlier polls are seeing.

[LimoLiberal]

Special election results do match up though.

Fair. Democrats certainly have the enthusiasm advantage.

[LimoLiberal]

People here are getting way too worked up about a weird kid in high school seeking validation.

Agreed. I think the main thing is that I have a democratic avatar (and am a democrat) but I am not rosy about their chances in November. I think it would be fine if I had a republican avatar, but that would be dishonest.

[LimoLiberal]

People here are getting way too worked up about a weird kid in high school seeking validation.

Agreed. I think the main thing is that I have a democratic avatar (and am a democrat) but I am not rosy about their chances in November. I think it would be fine if I had a republican avatar, but that would be dishonest.

Fake news!

You deliberately try to provoke people with hot takes on practically every single poll you post. You have also practically admitted (implicitly and more) that you troll. If you wanted to be more professional about it, you should stop editorializing every single data point as if you can actually predict what will happen from that. So saying "collapse!" "very bad news for Democrats" just because one poll came out is not only annoying (as you well know) but stupid as well. To take your shtick seriously for a moment, I mean, for every +2 or +1 from Rasmussen you can muster, there are double digit polls from QU, CNN and such, so all your hot takes really say is that you have an idea of the midterm that you prefer to stick to even though it's at best no better than 50% chance at being right, although arguably notably less given that the only thing you can use to back up your idea is a few polls here and there whereas everyone is using a combination of polls and the fundamentals (enthusiasm, special election wins, midterm dynamic, presidential approvals, recruiting/fundraising, etc).

(sorry people who have LL on ignore, plz forgive)

Well I said that my partisan affiliation was "mainly" the issue. I still believe that if I posted the same things with a blue avatar, less people would respond so angrily.

[LimoLiberal]

Pew: Dems +14

From January.

[LimoLiberal]

9 most recent house/senate polls in the spreadsheet now: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lEBtD0DPaliUWSZQclSl_HqTZAO_bRrxjDRZPPrAKgM/edit#gid=0