2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original (user search)
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 210137 times)
LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #75 on: March 06, 2018, 10:45:21 AM »
Sources tell me that this is going to be an amazing poll for Trump and Rs --->
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LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #76 on: March 06, 2018, 11:13:15 AM »
Quote from: Holmes on March 06, 2018, 11:12:14 AM
I'm not hearing anything one way or the other about the Monmouth poll on my end.

I'm hearing positive Trump approval.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #77 on: March 07, 2018, 11:05:18 AM »
Some good to great polls for Democrats esta mañana. Unfortunately, the primary results in Texas were disastrous, and those get equal weighting in my mind model, which is the most accurate model.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #78 on: March 07, 2018, 11:27:07 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 07, 2018, 11:21:26 AM
New Watson Center - Christopher Newman University Virginia Poll



Some of these are questionable...

Overall the Congressional Ballot in:

Democrats 45%
Republicans 33%


Comstock, Taylor, and Brat are all gone with these numbers.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #79 on: March 07, 2018, 11:54:38 AM »
Qpac also coming out with a poll at around 12 today, some people are saying. Don't have sources on this.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #80 on: March 07, 2018, 12:13:24 PM »


Dems fall on Qpac generic ballot from D+15 to D+10.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #81 on: March 07, 2018, 12:32:32 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on March 07, 2018, 12:28:41 PM
So does Monmouth. Their last poll (1/28 - 1/30) showed Democrats up 2, in December they had Democrats up 15. My guess: It’ll be D+6 or 7 this time.

Sources say differently, but we'll see how reliable this guy is.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #82 on: March 13, 2018, 06:43:30 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on March 13, 2018, 06:42:20 PM
Change Research (D-internal) for CA-48: Rohrabacher, 29; Keirstead, 13.

Can you link?
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #83 on: March 22, 2018, 02:46:34 PM »
« Edited: March 22, 2018, 02:50:03 PM by LimoLiberal »
Gold Standard California PPIC poll

http://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-march-2018/

Generic Ballot

Democrats - 53
Republicans - 39

D+14. In 2016 the aggregated house of reps vote in California was 62-37 (D+25).
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #84 on: March 22, 2018, 06:54:23 PM »
BTW, the 538 aggregate has the generic ballot at D+6.2. That's the lowest margin for Democrats since February 5th. I'll be interested to see where that goes the next couple weeks.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #85 on: March 22, 2018, 08:00:28 PM »
Quote from: DTC on March 22, 2018, 07:53:39 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 22, 2018, 07:51:11 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 22, 2018, 06:54:23 PM
BTW, the 538 aggregate has the generic ballot at D+6.2. That's the lowest margin for Democrats since February 5th. I'll be interested to see where that goes the next couple weeks.

It's almost like it was preordained:



It's scary how close these two graphs are... and the ending looks accurate given the fact that premiums soar right before midterms

Anybody know when the monthly/quarterly job reports come out?
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LimoLiberal
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*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #86 on: March 23, 2018, 10:49:10 AM »
Marist: D+5.

Democrats - 44 (-2)
Republicans - 39 (nc)

It was D+7 a few weeks ago.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #87 on: March 25, 2018, 08:23:12 AM »
Fox News Poll 3/25 (Last poll was October 2017)


Democrats - 46 (-4)
Republicans - 41 (+6)

Went from D+15 to D+5.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/03/25/fox-news-poll-gap-narrows-on-2018-vote-preference.html
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #88 on: April 03, 2018, 08:17:22 AM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on April 03, 2018, 08:03:50 AM
Not a poll, but 47% of Dem-held House seats will go uncontested this midterm.

Source?
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #89 on: April 03, 2018, 08:20:04 AM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on April 03, 2018, 08:18:19 AM


He's talking about state legislature seats, not US House seats.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #90 on: April 04, 2018, 07:13:37 PM »
New Jersey Congressional Ballot, Stockton Poll 3/22-29

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-0404-poll-wfs-2.pdf

Democrats - 48
Republicans - 32

D+16.

In 2016, Democrats won 54-46 (D+8) in the House of Representatives vote in the state of New Jersey.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #91 on: April 06, 2018, 03:36:00 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on April 06, 2018, 03:28:51 PM
Don’t look now but the 538 average is back in the 8.5% range


But King Lear told me that there was going to be a red wave based on Rasmussen polls?... Sad
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #92 on: April 08, 2018, 09:42:29 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on April 08, 2018, 06:06:36 PM
MI-08 Target Insyght Poll:

Bishop (i) (R): 45%
Slotkin (D): 39%

2016 Results -

Bishop (R): 56%
Shkreli (D): 39%

Is this an internal for a campaign? Middling numbers for the incumbent either way.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #93 on: April 09, 2018, 01:46:48 PM »
Quote from: Gauche on April 09, 2018, 01:39:19 PM
Whitmer leading 43-39 and Stabenow leading 48-40 in MI-08, and R+4 seat.


Stabenow won it 52-44 in 2012 while she won 59-38 statewide, so she looks like she's on track to a 20 point win or so.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #94 on: April 09, 2018, 03:23:20 PM »
Garin Hart Yang Polling for Amy McGrath (D) in KY-06: https://www.scribd.com/document/375773715/KY-06-Garin-Hart-Yang-D-for-Amy-McGrath-Feb-2018

McGrath (D) - 44
Barr (R, i) - 48

Jim Gray (D) - 49
Barr (R, i) - 47

The poll is from late February though.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #95 on: April 10, 2018, 09:02:56 AM »
That poll is one of the worst for Republicans I've seen this year.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #96 on: April 11, 2018, 08:47:39 AM »
Politico Morning Consult is D+6, it was D+4 a week ago

Rasmussen is D+5, it was D+6 a month ago.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #97 on: April 11, 2018, 10:20:30 AM »
Lisa Brown might be running the strongest campaign of any democratic challenger in the country. I just checked her facebook - she's getting 600+ likes every post and seems incredibly polished in her policies. Independent and internal polling has shown her in striking distance of toppling an extremely powerful GOP congresswoman in a district that favored the Republican candidate for president by 13 points! She is dynamo.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #98 on: April 11, 2018, 11:48:52 AM »
Quinnipiac... yikes

But Yougov went from D+7 to D+8 this week.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #99 on: April 11, 2018, 11:52:14 AM »
Trend in last 8 Quinnipiac generic ballot polls:

D+17
D+11
D+13
D+9
D+15
D+10
D+6
D+3
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