Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GP270watch]

Removal has more support than impeachment, which makes me think a lot of people don't understand the process.

 In the context of the question I agree with you. But it could also mean they find impeachment polarizing and they rather reject Trump at the polls.

[GP270watch]

 I always felt that Trump would do much worse in Iowa than 2016.

[GP270watch]

 It's obvious his approvals are ticking up. The impeachment fiasco doesn't seem to have swung against him since we're already so polarized. The people angry at Republicans for their lack of oversight were already against them.

 Democrats need to stop obsessing about his approval numbers and get out their vote and find new Democratic voters. Obama won with his GOTV operation not because he was obsessed with his approval numbers.

[GP270watch]

Interesting enough that none of Atlas Democrats is talking about the new "TheHill/HarrisX" Poll which pegs the Presidents JA at 49/51. The Hill isn't Trumps favorable Pollster.

The Economy added 225K Jobs in January far more compared to what Analysts were predicting.

I asked this again: Why the heck would you toss out a President with these kind of Job Numbers?

Because they're not impressive compared to Obama and downright pathetic when you count the fact that Trump massively cut taxes for the richest Americans and corporations creating debt the rest of us will pay for.

 Trump’s Jobs Record Is Weaker Than Everyone Thought
 

[GP270watch]

 Trump has the EC advantage still. He will probably lose the popular vote with more people voting for his opponent than even 2016. What the margin will be, who knows?

[GP270watch]

Global Strategy Group, Feb. 14-17, 1299 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-3)

R: 88/11 (strongly 57/5)
D: 10/88 (4/77)
I: 36/58 (11/40)

 Looks like it's going to be a base turnout election that determines the winner.

[GP270watch]

IBD/TIPP, Feb. 20-29, 908 adults (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

This is Trump's lowest rating in this poll since November.

 Yeah his approvals are starting to tick down again. Incompetence during a potential crisis or actual crisis always tanks approval ratings.

 But people shouldn't be fooled, in many ways his base is stronger than ever. If Democrats don't show up, they will lose.

[GP270watch]

 In times when Trump is in trouble(exception being Charlottesville) "shy Trump" and Republcians who claim they don't like Trump are more prone to voice their support. We see this over and over like with impeachment. This means Trump probably has a true base of 44.5-48 percent, add to this "rally around the flag" Americans who probably will never vote for Trump but are willing to give the benefit of the doubt in a crisis and Trump's bump isn't much.

 GWB had approvals in the 85-90s after 9/11 for a period of months. He still faced a very polarized election in 2004.

[GP270watch]

Trump's approval rating, per the 538 tracker, is now at 45.1%, the highest level in about three years. I'm terrified; his bungled response to COVID-19 is going to help him get re-elected.

 When people go in the booth in November or vote by mail the truth will remain. Is their life better off than it was 4 years ago? Is the world a more stable and safe place? Who is the person you trust to lead America into the future?

 If the majority of Americans or the breakdown in the EV vote think Trump is that person, what can you do? It's the country you live in. Instead of freaking out about Trump's approval rating and his possible re-election speak to your friends and loved ones and urge them to vote blue and register those who don't vote. Persuade reluctant and swing voters why Trump is a bad choice. I still believe an energized election defeats Trump quite easily.

[GP270watch]

MAGAS when Trump gets a bump: "Trump is surging!"

MAGAS when Trump's polling stinks: "ALL THE POLLS SAID HILLARY WOULD WIN!"

[GP270watch]

MAGAS when Trump gets a bump: "Trump is surging!"

MAGAS when Trump's polling stinks: "ALL THE POLLS SAID HILLARY WOULD WIN!"

Look up 8 replies before yours.

hah

 YES!

[GP270watch]

Penn Quaker Girl assured me that mathematically we can assume that 10,000+ will die AT MINIMUM. She studies / works with epidemics so I respect her advice regarding COV-19.

Quoted for posterity.

Let's check back on that prediction in 2 months time in the USA, and see how the logic of your argument unfolds.

You have 9,907 deaths remaining.

This post aged like whole milk in the Florida sun.

 

[GP270watch]

Penn Quaker Girl assured me that mathematically we can assume that 10,000+ will die AT MINIMUM. She studies / works with epidemics so I respect her advice regarding COV-19.

Quoted for posterity.
Let's check back on that prediction in 2 months time in the USA, and see how the logic of your argument unfolds.
You have 9,907 deaths remaining.

This post aged like whole milk in the Florida sun.

Not only have we not even reached 1 month from the date of those posts (Mar 16th), we still have about 6 weeks to reach the "2 month" mark.
Where do you(we) believe the US death toll will be on May 16? It's not going to be a good number.

 This website has been very good at modeling so far. It breaks down United States as a whole and the states individualy. They update it every few days with new data.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

[GP270watch]

Garin-Hart-Yang: April 6-8

National (1003 RV):

Biden 50
Trump 43

Trump approval: 46/54


Michigan (303 LV):

Biden 50
Trump 41

Trump approval: 44/56


Wisconsin (301 LV):

Biden 48
Trump 47

Trump approval: 48/52

 Wisconsin is going to fumble away the whole damn thing.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1253071689363140626

In other words we are super polarized and nothing really matters.

[GP270watch]

Incorrect, Trump wins ONE of PA, WI, or MI and he’ll win re-election. I think he has good odds of keeping one of those. That’s the election.

He barely won the three states and there is little wiggle room for him. Even a tiny drop means he’s finished.

 His polling in Florida and North Carolina is also going the wrong way.

[GP270watch]

 His polling with women is starting to look abysmal and if that holds he's going to lose by a lot.

[GP270watch]

 It's more interesting to see how people react to polls than thinking they actually mean something. Trump is a weird politician. He's an idiot whisperer. The people who support him project or ignore all kinds of qualities on to him. Their belief of what he is and who he is is fully formed and nothing really changes that.

 Democrats will win or lose based on who they can turn out. I suspect Trump will turn out a similar base to what he did in 2016.

[GP270watch]

 Trump's numbers will go up/come home on culture war issues. This is why Democrats need to focus on turnout.

[GP270watch]

Trump's numbers will go up/come home on culture war issues. This is why Democrats need to focus on turnout.

I'm not so sure that the data has backed up that notion thus far. Unlike in 2016 culture war issues don't seem to be affecting peoples' opinion of Biden and instead seem to be reflecting poorly on Trump who is the President, after all, during all this upheaval.

 You guys can keep fooling yourselves but if Democrats don't have record turnout, Trump will win.

[GP270watch]

 Still don't believe any of these polls.

[GP270watch]

Still don't believe any of these polls.

Then what will you believe?

Not what, when.

 Wednesday, November 4, 2020

[GP270watch]

If Democrats turn out they win. If they don't and think there is some great re-alignment going on against Trump, they're damn fools.

[GP270watch]

We need to see polls showing Trump tied or taking the lead, but I have stopped donating to Ds, since they endorsed Markey over JK 3 and Pelosi have not passed the Stimulus Bill. All bets are off, if no stimulus package is passed.

 The Democrats passed a stimulus bill months ago and people know this.

[GP270watch]

I am upset with Pelosi for not compromising on the 1.6T stimulus package, Leader McConnell and Trump and Grassley says they will pass it, but Pelosi want 2.4T. we shouldn't have to wait til Jan for the stimulus, in order for Biden to get sworn in, we need that money.  My family outside forum feels the same way, but I am a D

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313551794623127552

It's like he's trying to lose the election by normal standards because he has another plan to steal it.

Saying no stimulus before the election is going to get him hammered. People know the Democrats have already passed multiple bills with all the components that the public supports by huge margins when polled: like direct stimulus payments, increased unemployment benefits, Covid relief money for testing and hospitals, and money for states.