I think that this model is inaccurate. They know only turnout and project results based on pre-election polling. In real exit polls they ask voters after they vote, and here they don't aske anyone about anything. This makes no sense to me.
This is the model that big campaigns have used for years, and one of the consultants on this project is Obama's former director of microtargeting. That was a very successful electoral forecast model. It's also the model used by networks to make state calls. Exit polls are less accurate in general since their sample size is smaller than this method.
Exit polls cannot be less accurate because they interview people after voting, and only real voters, not likely like preelection polls.
