Is Texas really turning blue?

[Tintrlvr]

TX, meanwhile, is much closer to CA when it comes to makeup, not FL. Texas is mostly an urbanized state, with only 19% of its pop. living in designated rural areas. The Rs win in TX thanks to weak D margins in the Urban areas, and their stranglehold on the suburbs.

This is rather similar to CA back in the 1980s and 1990s, with the area of San Francisco being comparable to Austin(a Liberal Stronghold, but not powerful enough to exercise enough influence), and LA with Houston(a tossup area thats rapid D trend causes the state to flip). Not to mention the fact that the Hispanics in TX arent Cubans, or Venezuelans, or other Hispanic groups with a famed hatred of left wing practices, but Mexican Americans, and Central Americans, the most pro-D Hispanics in the US. It also should be noted that the areas exploding in population are the urban areas and its close suburbs, the areas trending rapidly D.

If TX flips, IMO, and we are still in the same party system as today, it goes the way of CA, not FL.

You make good points, but also:

** TX is much more religious than in CA ever was, particularly in rural areas but also in cities. 

This isn't true. Orange County was the beating heart of the evangelical movement in the 60s through the 80s, and the Central Valley, Inland Empire, San Diego area and many LA suburbs likewise were populated by religious transplants from the South and Plains and their descendants (Okies, Arkies, etc.) who had originally moved to the area during the Dust Bowl. And much of rural and small city northern California (e.g., Redding) is likewise very religious.

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This has been true for select candidates but is less and less true as time goes on. Abbott, for example, is known to have a similarly close relationship with institutional Hispanic groups in Texas to the way Bush did but vastly underperformed Bush in Hispanic areas of Texas, even South Texas, despite in some ways being more potentially appealing to them (his wife is Mexican-American and he speaks fluent Spanish, e.g.). Moreover, the long-term Hispanic residents of Texas are not increasing the number; the new immigrants are.

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This is true to a degree, although oil and gas are not as major growth areas of employment as they have been as energy balances shift away from fossil fuels generally (and oil especially), and Texas's economy is diversifying rapidly with many "liberal" industries being the fastest growing (witness Apple's announcement of 7,000 new hires in Austin recently, e.g.).  

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This is a vastly overrated reason for people to migrate to one state over another and doesn't really matter.

[Tintrlvr]

Do texas dems have a path to winning the state house? I haven't read that

yeah the dems should invest heavily into it for fair maps in the 20's

Its easier than statewide due to the gerrymanders becoming dummymanders
Dallas went from 8R-6D to 12D-2R.  Get houston and San Antonio and the dems have a majority.

I think Beto won an easy majority of state legislative districts. The gerrymander really backfired on the Republicans. That said, unless the Dems can break through in 2020, the Republicans probably just re-gerrymander in 2022 and it's all moot - though a 2022 gerrymander may not survive all the way until 2030 (and would by necessity be less aggressive than the 2012 gerrymander in any case).

[Tintrlvr]

Do texas dems have a path to winning the state house? I haven't read that

yeah the dems should invest heavily into it for fair maps in the 20's

Its easier than statewide due to the gerrymanders becoming dummymanders
Dallas went from 8R-6D to 12D-2R.  Get houston and San Antonio and the dems have a majority.

I think Beto won an easy majority of state legislative districts. The gerrymander really backfired on the Republicans. That said, unless the Dems can break through in 2020, the Republicans probably just re-gerrymander in 2022 and it's all moot - though a 2022 gerrymander may not survive all the way until 2030 (and would by necessity be less aggressive than the 2012 gerrymander in any case).

I think people are really overestimating how easy TX will be to redraw for the GOP, even on the House end. A new TX GOP-drawn map is going to have to be very, very conservative with a focus on creating Dem sink districts. It's not just the state's changing partisan lean as it is where the obscenely quick population growth is happening: the same suburban counties that are trending Dem, along with the already Dem urban counties, are going to have a massive increase in number of seats allocated.

You have less faith in gerrymandering abilities. The Republicans managed to gerrymander themselves into control of the *New York* state Senate for most of the past decade (and before then), after all. On a state legislative level they can also rely on malapportionment (which I don't think they do now). The Supreme Court has allowed fairly significant variances in state legislative districts, even on a systematic level (again, witness the New York state Senate).

[Tintrlvr]

The rules for drawing house districts really hampers the Texas GOP. You can't just connect Dallas, Harris and Travis counties with exurban/rural areas and create GOP districts that way. They have to stay within the county, which was fine when there were plenty of Republican leaning suburbs within those counties. Not the case anymore.

Looking at the Congressional maps, I imagine this only applies to the state maps?

That is correct.

Is that a state constitutional requirement or just statutory?

[Tintrlvr]

The rules for drawing house districts really hampers the Texas GOP. You can't just connect Dallas, Harris and Travis counties with exurban/rural areas and create GOP districts that way. They have to stay within the county, which was fine when there were plenty of Republican leaning suburbs within those counties. Not the case anymore.

Oh damn then yeah, they can’t really do a whole lot to re-gerrymander the maps before 2020 with that restriction if true. I was thinking they’d for sure try to do a mid-decade redistricting and try to draw out the new Dems in seats in Williamson and Denton County but that would just open them up to even more dummymander potential if they are restricted to keeping those seats within those counties since these places are zooming left fast.

I think they'd have to try for one safe D seat in each of the suburban counties and hope they can hold on to the rest for a decade in the 2020 redistricting regardless.