UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Tintrlvr]

I'll turn on BBC for the exit poll. If it says Tory majority, I'm going to bed. If it says no overall majority, I'll go down the corner shop to get some cheap cans of cider and settle in for a long one.

Every election there are fewer and fewer declarations the night of. If it's not a total blowout, are we even reasonably going to know enough results night-of to be able to assess whether it's a majority or not (exit polls aside, of course)?

[Tintrlvr]

Boris Johnson didn't vote for himself...because he voted in at his Downing Street address.

When I first read that headline, I was hoping it meant he voted for Lord Buckethead or Count Binface.

Do MPs have to live in the constituency they run in? Or is there an exemption made for the PM...

The UK has a proud tradition of airlifting candidates into safe seats purely because they are safe seats, and the candidate climbed enough within the party.

Yeah, a lot of MPs, especially in safe seats, don't have any connection to their constituencies whatsoever (not like people who were just redistricted out of their original seat).

[Tintrlvr]

a better word for “global trends” is “English speaking world trends”

Some non-Anglophone countries have shown similar movement. France and Italy, to name some prominent ones.

[Tintrlvr]

In addition to the global trends, this was a total failure on the part of anti-Brexit crowd to unite against Boris.

They did it on the Leave side with BXP standing down in Tory districts.

LibDems and Labour failed to get along in the same way.

Democrats in the US have to take note. Moderate Dems, progressives, moderate Republicans must wholly unite against Trump or assure re-election.

That of course is directed at all parties, [SNIPPED]

I think that a lot depends on the specific seats, but generally yes. Lots of Lib Dem - Tory marginals where Labour should’ve stepped aside. But a fair number that the Lib Dems shouldn’t have contested.

Some of this seems to assume that the Liberal Dems aren't actually okay with the conservatives winning. The more I see their antics, the more they come off like the US green party except staked out in the center left instead of far left as far as electoral posturing is concerned. To be clear, that means a lot of posturing, being useless, having little interest in actually governing, and more than happy to carry water for the most destructive elements of the right's propaganda.

But sure, because they were the most anti-Brexit of the big 3 they can be totally trusted to do the right thing when it comes crunch time. Right.

*looks at the Lib Dems who didn't do that for this election*

...Right....

Don't blame the Lib Dems for what's happening in Northern England. If anything, they're going to dent the Conservative majority by getting a few seats in the South Labour could have never won.

They are breaking even in terms of gains lol. There's still marginal seats in the south that could go Labour without vote divide.

The same seats would go Lib Dem if Labour stood aside (even if Labour is way ahead of the Lib Dems in 2017 and this year), and polling suggested in all of the potential three-way seats, the Lib Dems were much stronger challengers to the Conservatives than Labour if the seats were two-way races, so *shrug*

[Tintrlvr]

Newcastle-upon-Tyne North is the first seat where the Tories go backwards (though still a swing to the Tories compared to Labour).

[Tintrlvr]

BBC is saying that the leader of the DUP could lose to Sinn Féin.

Deputy Leader. Arlene Foster, their leader, isn’t an MP.

The DUP getting pasted would be well deserved. At least the Alliance taking North Down is one bright spot in a dreary election.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1205316148688039936?s=20

Given the results so far, I wouldn’t be shocked if the DUP loses South Antrim to the Alliance, too. That Alliance result in Strangford is something...

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1205316148688039936?s=20

Given the results so far, I wouldn’t be shocked if the DUP loses South Antrim to the Alliance, too. That Alliance result in Strangford is something...

DUP barely holds Belfast East 20,874 v. 19,055 for the Alliance.

Disappointing.

[Tintrlvr]

Con hold Moray, first non-SNP seat in Scotland

[Tintrlvr]

That age divide though.

It's particularly shocking when you realize how many of those 65+ voters must have been voting Labour 20-30 years ago.

[Tintrlvr]

Overall majority & vote share figures:

Just to add to this.

Absolute majority (50%+ of vote):
Con 280 seats (+7; 77% of their seats)
Lab 120 seats (-72; 59%)
SNP 10 seats (+10; 21%)
Lib 6 seats (+5; 46%)
SDLP 2 seats (+2; 100%)
Grn 1 seat (nc; 100%)
SF 1 seat (-2; 14%)
Spk 1 seat (nc; 100%)
DUP 0 seats (-5; 0%)
Total 421 (-55; 65%)

Overall since 1997:
2019 - 421
2017 - 476
2015 - 317
2010 - 216
2005 - 218
2001 - 326
1997 - 347
Seats by type:
2010 Con wins (306) - Con 282, Lab 21, Lib 3
2010 Lab wins (258) - Lab 168, Con 50, SNP 39, Spk 1
2010 Lib wins (57) - Con 30, Lab 13, Lib 8, SNP 5, PC 1
2015 UKIP +20% (69) - Con 47 (+19 on 2015), Lab 22 (-17), Oth 0 (-2)
Borough (285) - Lab 160 (-28), Con 98 (+25), SNP 17 (+4), Lib 5 (-1), SF 2 (+1), Grn 1, DUP 1 (-2), SDLP 1 (+1)
County (365) - Con 267 (+23), Lab 42 (-32), SNP 31 (+9), DUP 7, Lib 6, SF 5 (-1), PC 4, APNI 1 (+1), SDLP 1 (+1), Spk 1

Borough constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in urban areas, county constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in rural areas

Scottish seats by independence vote:
Yes 50%+ (16) - SNP 15 (+2), Con 1 (nc), Lab 0 (-2)
No 50-55% (18) - SNP 17 (+2), Lib 1 (+1), Con 0 (-1), Lab 0 (-2)
No 55-60% (11) - SNP 10 (+4), Con 1 (-3), Lab 0 (-1)
No 60%+ (14) - SNP 6 (+4), Con 4 (-3), Lib 3 (nc), Lab 1 (-1)

Which remaining Scottish Conservative seat voted for independence? None of them really seem plausible based on the council area breakdowns.

[Tintrlvr]

Overall majority & vote share figures:

Just to add to this.

Absolute majority (50%+ of vote):
Con 280 seats (+7; 77% of their seats)
Lab 120 seats (-72; 59%)
SNP 10 seats (+10; 21%)
Lib 6 seats (+5; 46%)
SDLP 2 seats (+2; 100%)
Grn 1 seat (nc; 100%)
SF 1 seat (-2; 14%)
Spk 1 seat (nc; 100%)
DUP 0 seats (-5; 0%)
Total 421 (-55; 65%)

Overall since 1997:
2019 - 421
2017 - 476
2015 - 317
2010 - 216
2005 - 218
2001 - 326
1997 - 347
Seats by type:
2010 Con wins (306) - Con 282, Lab 21, Lib 3
2010 Lab wins (258) - Lab 168, Con 50, SNP 39, Spk 1
2010 Lib wins (57) - Con 30, Lab 13, Lib 8, SNP 5, PC 1
2015 UKIP +20% (69) - Con 47 (+19 on 2015), Lab 22 (-17), Oth 0 (-2)
Borough (285) - Lab 160 (-28), Con 98 (+25), SNP 17 (+4), Lib 5 (-1), SF 2 (+1), Grn 1, DUP 1 (-2), SDLP 1 (+1)
County (365) - Con 267 (+23), Lab 42 (-32), SNP 31 (+9), DUP 7, Lib 6, SF 5 (-1), PC 4, APNI 1 (+1), SDLP 1 (+1), Spk 1

Borough constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in urban areas, county constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in rural areas

Scottish seats by independence vote:
Yes 50%+ (16) - SNP 15 (+2), Con 1 (nc), Lab 0 (-2)
No 50-55% (18) - SNP 17 (+2), Lib 1 (+1), Con 0 (-1), Lab 0 (-2)
No 55-60% (11) - SNP 10 (+4), Con 1 (-3), Lab 0 (-1)
No 60%+ (14) - SNP 6 (+4), Con 4 (-3), Lib 3 (nc), Lab 1 (-1)

Which remaining Scottish Conservative seat voted for independence? None of them really seem plausible based on the council area breakdowns.

Banff and Buchan, which also voted for Brexit.

Are we certain about that? Aberdeenshire council area was 60% No and only includes that seat, Gordon and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine. That would require Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine to be the most anti-independence seat in Scotland by a significant margin for the math to work.