2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

According to this tweet, the GCB from Marist is D+17, but I though Marist already released one like three days ago.
https://twitter.com/edwardthardy/status/1040260061086408705?s=21

Yeah, that doesn't jibe with the latest Fox Senate polls from IN & TN. Marist might be a D-leaner.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

According to this tweet, the GCB from Marist is D+17, but I though Marist already released one like three days ago.
https://twitter.com/edwardthardy/status/1040260061086408705?s=21

Yeah, that doesn't jive with the latest Fox Senate polls from IN & TN. Marist being a D-leaner confirmed.

Maybe.

It seems the big difference between Fox and Marist is with Trump's approval ratings.

Indiana
Fox has Trump +10 (54/44)
Marist has Trump +2 (48/46)

Tennessee
Fox has Trump +20 (58/38)
Marist has Trump +4 (47/43)

Though they're pretty much in agreement in Missouri.

Morning Consult agrees with FOX on Tennessee, which makes me believe the Fox poll. It also is somewhere in between Fox and Marist on Indiana, but considering MC overestimates Dem strength in the Midwest...I'll believe Fox as well.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Is there historical evidence to back up the idea that Siena is biased toward incumbents in September? It's certainly not the case that all of their polls are rosy for incumbents.

It's just a lie #BlueWavers tell themselves to feel better about those brutal numbers they've been seeing lately.

Erik Paulsen, Mike Coffman and Rod Blum say hi.

Also, incumbents at 45% is bad news for them, especially when undecideds lean Democratic.

Sure, those 3 are DOA, but we're gonna need 22 more to take the House. Where are they gonna come from? All these "magical Latino wave" seats that Dems have sacrificed the rurals on an altar for aren't happening. The Tejanos and Cubans are sticking with the GOP for now.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

DCCC WV-3: Ojeda 48 Miller 44

https://twitter.com/alexi/status/1043153228060344322

DCCC internal? Yep, I'm gonna believe Siena.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

How is the GOP doing this well? In 2012, there were several Republicans who made rape comments and got destroyed in the polls (deservedly so). The whole Kavanaugh controversy is like that 10 times over, yet they're still doing as well as they are?

Kavanaugh isn't on the ballot. However, Republicans have been way more pro-rape lately.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

If there's a place Dems can do well, it will be in Pennsylvania, as there is still a bunch of lowhanging fruit. Too bad Scott Wallace is anti-Israel, though.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

There's evidence of the GCB lead coming down slightly from its height about a week ago, although it's probably just reversion to the mean.

The McCain funeral penalty is over...and there is some concern over Latino districts not panning out for Dems as hoped.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

PPP Polls-

TX-07-

Fletcher (D): 47%
Culberson (R): 45%

TX-32-

Allred (D): 47%
Sessions (R): 42%

Are these internals?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Dems fall to 76.3% on 538 to take back the House, lowest since right after Labor Day. I'd say it was the Kavanaugh bump and skittish GOPers during the McCain mess coming back home. Expect more Dem collapse in the coming weeks.

Hofold, if the average voter cared about politics as much as you think they did, we'd be living in a much better nation.

The average voter is prolly Republican. I don't want them as engaged.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1047501631544279041

#FitzpatrickAt50

Considering Wallace is pro-BDS and unions have thrown in with Fitzpatrick, this isn't shocking in the least. Looks like the Blue Wave is receding (...and before anyone accuses me of concern trolling, Monmouth is reliable and I don't think I'm exaggerating here).

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Better the blue wave receeds slightly now than at the end of October.

Yeah, but what exactly is gonna change from now till the end of October? The economy is fine. The only X-Factor left is a war (favours the GOP) and Kavanaugh being confirmed or not (I'd wager a guess and say that him being confirmed will excite the GOP base in the same way the tax bill did, and him being voted down will have the opposite effect).

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1048296589285105666

NM-02 toss up.

Blue Ripple turning back into a wave or an outlier? Stay tuned.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

How exactly is stating an opinion trolling? He isn't saying anything all the Dem hacks here don't say with the names changed.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

RCP and 538 don't lie. The burden of proof is on Red Avatars to numerically prove that a decline isn't happening.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

Someones been on twitter.

Nate Cohn laying out his doomsday scenario lol.

Anyway, he raises a good point. However, I think he is underselling the fact that the party out of power tends to over perform the district only polls.

Yeah, but Kavanaugh changed the game for the GOP like I said it would. What happened to all my naysayers saying that nobody pays attention to the Supreme Court?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Not to mention that if you take out Memerson and the highly erratic Reuters/Ipsos, the average becomes D+5.5.

Take out NPR/PBS/Marist, Harvard-Harris, and Quinnipiac -- all possibly biased for the D's...and you get D+4!

I wonder if we'll get an R+something poll soon after that Kavanaugh debacle. Who knows...maybe the GCB will be something like R+1 at the end if things really break in favor for the GOP. I looked at quite a few polls from the 2016 Senate elections recently and noticed a pattern - many were accurate at predicting the percentage the Democratic candidate would get, and it didn't change much since early October. On top of that, the undecideds broke heavily for the GOP.

If you see the same pattern hold...

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

..notice how even the D favorables only have it at around 50%...that means even if they're accurate, undecideds could break massively for the GOP to the point where it's pretty much a tie --> no blue wave, no taking back the House!

And I wouldn't be surprised...people who are going to vote Democratic on November 6 have likely ALREADY decided by now. If you're still undecided after all the "we need a blue wave to put a check on Trump" propaganda, chances are you lean GOP.

Sorry guys.

This is quite possibly the worst analysis Ive ever read on this forum.

Instead of mocking, use actual data to prove them wrong. Otherwise, the point stands. The Blue Wave is dead like I said it would.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

.  

Someones been on twitter.

Nate Cohn laying out his doomsday scenario lol.

Anyway, he raises a good point. However, I think he is underselling the fact that the party out of power tends to over perform the district only polls.

Yeah, but Kavanaugh changed the game for the GOP like I said it would. What happened to all my naysayers saying that nobody pays attention to the Supreme Court?

He didn't really change the game looking at the senate polls. But I don't have time for your concern trolling.

Is it trolling to say that Cruz, Blackburn, Cramer, and Hawley are pulling away?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map_race_changes.html

Can a small polling error break a thousand hearts next month?

Yikes, this is horrible news for the Dems. The Kavanaugh bump has now spread to the House. Hard to unskew this.

https://twitter.com/WCIA3Mark/status/1049304303511453696

https://www.wcia.com/election/ylehq_illinoishomepage/poll-davis-leads-londrigan-49-48/1507143696

Talk about burying the lead... Londrigan is up 4 among likely voters (51-47.)

Talk about burying the real lead...it's an internal. Toss it in the trash.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

RCP has House control a virtual toss up now. I blame DiFi for holding on to the Kav dirt this long.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

RCP has House control a virtual toss up now. I blame thank DiFi for holding on to the Kav dirt this long.

FTFY

Virginia, I know you've never agreed on much with me, but you seriously think what DiFi did helped in the Midterms? I want to see the logic in that. The bump for the GOP lately is almost all concentrated in Kavanaugh related anger.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Those familiar with Eastern Pennsylvania, is this district a bellwether for the state/nation or does it lean a bit to the left?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Those familiar with Eastern Pennsylvania, is this district a bellwether for the state/nation or does it lean a bit to the left?

May be hard to say since it was so dramatically redrawn

The reason I ask is because I wanted to gauge if the poll is in line with expectations for the district vis-à-vis the rest of the state/nation.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

North Carolina (SurveyUSA):

Democrats 48
Republicans 43

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3ce61747-3fa0-497c-8112-436784634eb4

With NC being R+3 in PVI, this translates to a national margin being D+8.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Democrats gain 3 points in CNN's Generic Ballot vs September:

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1049691950704672769

Great news, I admit. I'm gonna need that to be corroborated elsewhere (by pollsters with at least a B rating) before we start celebrating.