Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[GlobeSoc]

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lmao

[GlobeSoc]

I think IceSpear should lay off the sheer amount of posts he makes about it. It’s the same thing over and over again, and it’s a bit annoying at this point. We get it, you don’t think the Democrats have a chance of winning. You don’t have to make 50 posts about it.

[GlobeSoc]

TFW you think you are anti-establishment while supporting one of the biggest pro-big corporation parties in the world

[GlobeSoc]

Gravis is also putting out a new AL poll today. Last poll was Moore +2.

Gravis? When? Also, why is literally no big name pollster fielding a poll here?

[GlobeSoc]

TFW you think you are anti-establishment while supporting one of the biggest pro-big corporation parties in the world

Also, child molesters

[GlobeSoc]

Can everyone, namely those on the left and those who oppose sexual predation of minors, stop lighting their hair on fire? The election isn't Tuesday. It's 22 days from now, so calm the f-ck down. The allegations aren't going to get any better as time goes on and many of the typical support mechanisms that helped save Trump aren't there for Moore. The only thing Moore has going for him is Alabama's natural Republican hue. Governor Ivey isn't worried about having a Republican in the Senate as much as she is having to secure her own election next year.

[GlobeSoc]

This race shows Democratic defeatism on full display. Good thing the dems down in Alabama aren't acting the same way, or this race would still be at likely or safe R.

[GlobeSoc]

How about taking the discussion of Greedo's life and plans to its own thread?

[GlobeSoc]

Yeah, goddamn, like 2/3 of this thread has been a series of 2 or more posters headlocked in arguments over tangential minutiae or stuff that just doesn't have anything to do with the election whatsoever.

Greedo and IceSpear should both be banned from posting in this thread

[GlobeSoc]

I wonder what o Keefe will say now, assuming he responds to this at all.

[GlobeSoc]

When does the JMC poll come out. It's still trash, but at least it's not fake trash that was formed a few weeks ago for the purpose of setting the narrative. National and local fox polls are what I would put the most stock in, though.

[GlobeSoc]

I'm nervous about the JMC poll

[GlobeSoc]

Remember Nate Silver's rule "When the conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polls, it almost always guesses in the wrong direction." Everyone thinks that there's a bunch of 'shy Moore' voters, even though there's no evidence for this and there never were shy Trump voters. It's also very possible the polls are underrating Jones.

True, but I'm afraid of the polls being right and there being no polling error, which is why I'm cautiously going to say that the race is lean Moore.

That being said, it's possible that millennials are being systemically underpolled, which would have the effect of underselling Jones' position compared to reality. In addition, the re-enfranchisement of some felons might have a slight effect on the race, and it would be difficult to detect that vote.

On the flipside of the coin, it's possible that the angry white senior vote is being overpolled compared to what actually happens in the election. In JMC, for instance, middle aged people and the young supported Moore by a decent margin, whilst seniors supported Moore. This shows the result was potentially skewed because half of the sample was senior, which is probably not going to borne out by the results.

Also:

One more thing to consider is that most of the firms that have polled this race have been inconsistent, complete garbage, or both. Fox News has been the only reputable pollster in Alabama for the last month.

[GlobeSoc]

If the government was accountable to shareholders, Moore would have never had a chance at power like this. Remember, shareholders dislike bad PR!