2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Aurelio21]

The GCB of these polls point only to rural white men/women returning to the GOP, primarily in the south/mountain west. There is a video that oddly enough Latino men in the west start liking Donald Trump.

The talk about a blue wave is misleading, just like a projekt Veritas Video About Things we already know about the democratic candidates. Just apply the Homer-Simpson-ROck-Bottom technique, and Things I look up at Google Sound like words from Joseph Stalin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqDP8SnPVA0


More indicative are the here mentioned GCBs of battleground states:
PA: D+15
OH: D+1(from -11)
IA: D+6
NJ: D+20
Just remembered the aforementioned polls, correct me if wrong.

This is a semi-realignment election, with core Republican constituencies switching to the Democrats/abstaining and the Republicans becoming a primarily rural Party, and thus completing the 1860 reversal.


Edit:

It never stops being about Trump's base. Ever. Even when they're losing. "Liberal Media" my ass.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1059103844154662912

I totally agree - the DNC should take an inversed 1860 election as inspiration. Let the Republicans take the strategically losing position of the then-pro-slavery Democrats, i e the coalition of rural voters and super rich southern millionaires/billionaires.

[Aurelio21]

The GCB of these polls point only to rural white men/women returning to the GOP, primarily in the south/mountain west. There is a video that oddly enough Latino men in the west start liking Donald Trump.

The talk about a blue wave is misleading, just like a projekt Veritas Video About Things we already know about the democratic candidates. Just apply the Homer-Simpson-ROck-Bottom technique, and Things I look up at Google Sound like words from Joseph Stalin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqDP8SnPVA0


More indicative are the here mentioned GCBs of battleground states:
PA: D+15
OH: D+1(from -11)
IA: D+6
NJ: D+20
Just remembered the aforementioned polls, correct me if wrong.

This is a semi-realignment election, with core Republican constituencies switching to the Democrats/abstaining and the Republicans becoming a primarily rural Party, and thus completing the 1860 reversal.

Iowa shouldn't be surprising to me because it's so swingy, but I definitely didn't expect at D+6.

Iowa is from the most recent Ann Selzer poll which did the Iowa GCB even for the congressional districts - see my posters above.

[Aurelio21]

The GCB of these polls point only to rural white men/women returning to the GOP, primarily in the south/mountain west. There is a video that oddly enough Latino men in the west start liking Donald Trump.

The talk about a blue wave is misleading, just like a projekt Veritas Video About Things we already know about the democratic candidates. Just apply the Homer-Simpson-ROck-Bottom technique, and Things I look up at Google Sound like words from Joseph Stalin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqDP8SnPVA0


More indicative are the here mentioned GCBs of battleground states:
PA: D+15
OH: D+1(from -11)
IA: D+6
NJ: D+20
Just remembered the aforementioned polls, correct me if wrong.

This is a semi-realignment election, with core Republican constituencies switching to the Democrats/abstaining and the Republicans becoming a primarily rural Party, and thus completing the 1860 reversal.


Edit:

It never stops being about Trump's base. Ever. Even when they're losing. "Liberal Media" my ass.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1059103844154662912

I totally agree - the DNC should take an inversed 1860 election as inspiration. Let the Republicans take the strategically losing position of the then-pro-slavery Democrats, i e the coalition of rural voters and super rich southern millionaires/billionaires.

So it is now better to consider the Republican Party a Populist party than a Conservative one?

Probably, although I think Nationalist is an even better description.

I'd like to abstain from cheap labeling as I likely have a different definition of terms of "Nation"/"Populist". Basically, the republican coalition appears to me to have a nativist common ground. This might be a more coherent one than the democratic coalition. But it does not appeal to urban/suburban voters.

[Aurelio21]

Yeah, this is not good at all. I had hoped (not expected) that Dems maintain the higher leads they had previously been getting in the quality polls.

[…]

I'm feeling significantly more like 2016 than I was yesterday, where Dems seem to have a lead and be likely to win, but where it is too close for comfort. That doesn't mean the outcome will be like 2016, but it also doesn't mean that it won't be like 2016.

In sum, not good. Not good at all.

To cheer up a little all those with concerns
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjrWg0q4lBE

If you read the full reports of the quality pollsters, the Rep surge mainly stems from rural GOP voters where the cultural conservatism/evangelical voters are dominant. Thus not the Mid-West as the Ann Selzer Poll (Iowa GCB: D+6) demonstrates.

Seniors +15 %points for Dems. Honestly, the DNC should Appeal like Sen John Warner(Arch-R) to their Civic duties maintaining your republic of liberties. Those phony "Project Veritas"-type pseudo-activists which always are talking about "preserving the constitutional liberties" by disregarding your constitutions(amendmends 1, 13, 14 and 19 in particular, intentional misinterpretation of Amendment 2) should be easily dismantled as authoritarians.

S.Kornacki avoids the word "realignment" like a vampire the daylight. Basically, this is it: a Realignment Election. Suburbs go hard to the Democrats. Just imagine, Sen. John Warner endorses local democratic candidates. This is not conservative vs. liberal, this is rural nativist conservative versus liberal conservative(in the European sense) voter coalitions.

To clarify what my formerly posted state GCBs in seats mean:
Pennsylvania: +4to6
Michigan:        +2to3
Iowa:              +2 (+3 if Mr King goes down, he was TRIAGED)
NJ:                 +4to5
Further estimates (and the NYT/Siena polls are weighed conservatively)
NY:       +2
ME:    +2
FL:      +1
VA:    +2to3 , see above who endorsed (except for VA10) the respective Democrats
CO:  +1
AZ:  +1
KS:  +1to2 (thx to KKKobach+BrownBack)

(Minnesota: assumed neutral as the rural R surge will take MN1+8 instead of 2+3)
See, 23 seats in suburbs without TX, CA, WA, state), UT and the max. No of pickups including a reasonable amount of a margin of error.
This is how to interpret the GCB of NBC+WashPost/ABC: Surge in irrelevant rural CDs for the Republicans, the Democrats have a stable new voter coalition with reliable voters (liberal conservative suburbanites and seniors who do not like the fearmongering. All this with a reconciliating message instead of "if they go low, we go lower", yet negative on Trumpanites and their allies like Alex Jones)

[Aurelio21]

To be fair, those racist hick margins will matter in a lot of close Senate contests. Hence why I’m pretty pessimistic there

To be fair, those racist hick margins will matter in a lot of close Senate contests. Hence why I’m pretty pessimistic there
[/quote]
I totally agree, yet the senate was never really in play. Turning around this structural deficit the DNC/reasonable Republicans never tried.

To put it simply, there will be no uniform swing of D+8 or more. Yes, a 2016 redux taking the House is likely, with the exception of the MidWest like the Ann Selzer poll implies. Thus Obama-Trump-voters there returning into the democratic coalition, Extended by an accelerated coalition with Romney-Clinton voters. B Goldwater and R Reagan would be Democrats today! The GOP has been taken over by Pence and Alex Jones, and DJ Trump serves them as titular head and connection to the billionaire class to comfort them.
And the Virginia'17 extended and accelerated in these year's special election, see OH12!

What can you ask more? Did you expect Mr DJ Trump to stop campaigning?

I do not like calling the rural voters "racist hicks". I am from Germany, trust me, real racism is far more than this phenomenon ;-) To be clear, if I had a time machine, I would go back discretely to 1918 to the battlefields of the Somme and "execute" a certain "bohemian" (sic) corporal. Basically, I would wish we had an 2nd Amendment style passage in our constitution here, yet executed sanely.

This is called "ingroup preference" and quite natural. Mr Trump and his allies(Alex Jones, James O'Keefe, Rupert Murdock(An Australian, wtf has he to tell US citizens what to think) and Sean Heannity) play skillfully on these emotions.

[Aurelio21]

In this realignment election, the GCB is only confusing. The CBS tracker /WaPost /NBC Survey of the ca. 70 CDs in play is far more important.

The DNC has tapped into one of DJ Trumps traps: Calling out his and FoxNews' not-really-truths does not help. The "caravan"(lepry, small pox etc are extinct, and islamic terrorist are still trying to learn the "Teleport Spell" from Golbez from FFIV;-) )  is a symbolic scapegoat on which DJ Trump demonstrates his leadership skills. It is rather a totem. This "totem dance" makes your fellow americans who go a long with their guts rather than an model according to the enlightenment.

Thus he has repositioned great parts of his electoral alliance and thus narrowed the margin of error for the Democrats and reasonable Republicans/the former Elite of the Republicans.

In general:
And if the DNC would really understand that they are playing along with Mr Trump's script by calling him a liar on the topic "caravan"/ discounting the fear of social degradation in rural areas /WWC left behind, they would do something very differently. To be clear, they suck at connecting emotionally with their (former) constituents and thus leaving the space for him.

They should acknowledge the Problem(even if it does not exist), but A) strengthening the border patrol by doubling the number, and at the same time for keeping their affluent base donating some of their abundant Money from the PACs for a humanitarian solution together with the mexican government. Not taking the immigrants into the US but help in Honduras. And taking out in the same way smear artist like Jacob Wohl and James O'Keefe (painting them as anti-social).

This tightening in the polls / losing the rural vote for at least 2 Generations demonstrates an inability to see what connection with the voters means. Most people sublimate their fears on other topics, and claiming rationally that they do not exist is as usefull as explaining a child that the monster under his bed does not exist.

[Aurelio21]

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You act like Republicans are operating in good faith here. Democrats already offered the Trump administration funds for more border security and Trump said no.

No, I do not think a moment that there is good faith in this publicity stunt. The "caravan" is a mere symbol, and must be fought on this level.

They offered this to him. But not the public/publicly enough. OK, this is not trivial, yet none of them has tried to overplay him. Instead the media / the Dems seemingly say the "caravan" does not exist. How can you convince the average retiree in the gated community that Mr Trump is fearmongering, as the sublimated fears of degradation become real via the totem "caravan"?

I know that this is a publicity stunt for deflecting the failed policies like the tax rise for the middle class(Real estate cost not-deductible anymore).
If only the local candidates and DNC would have a unified strategy by offering a better more dominant solution.
Instead, e g Team Beto falls for the bastard moves of a "Project Veritas" (sic) and let this phony O'Keefe steal them the right way and narrative of him (better Border Patrol and humanitarian solution) by misleading editing / slander video taping.

Back to the main question: 5.7 is the breaking point, as posted while I have been writing this. Yet there is no hope lost, if enough people out-pray Michael Pence, there will be sunshine on the east coast ;-)