60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED
ahugecat
Jr. Member
Posts: 868
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« on: September 27, 2017, 02:23:39 AM » |
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I'd assume it would be a "rust belt" democrat that would win rural whites enough to squeak out 1-3 point victories in key swing states:
(GOP - DEM)
- 50-48.5 in Pennsylvania
- 50-49 in Michigan
- 50.5-48 in Wisconsin
- 50-49 in Florida
- 52.5-46 in Ohio
- 52-46 in Iowa
- 52-47 in N.C.
- 48.5-49 in Colorado
- 48-49 in Minnesota
- 48.5-50 in Virginia
- 49-49.5 in N.H.
AZ, GA, and TX would all have their typical margins - 53-45 in AZ, 54-45 in GA, and 56.5-42 in TX.
It'd be weird to not see Nevada and New Hampshire on the GOP side though - I'd think they'd perform somewhat like Bush 2004.
I'd assume Colorado and Virginia were 1-2 point Democratic wins and that Hillary chose a VA politician (likely Kaine as that had been the plan since 2008) or a very popular Latino candidate that helped her in NV, VA, and CO.
Popular vote: Republican 50, Democrat 48.5 (I'd assume the third party vote would be a non-factor)
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