VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[SoLongAtlas]

Northam campaign sending out mailers in PW that has a wall with bricks labelled bigotry, hatred, etc., etc. And says Gillespie is anti-hispanic, will be another brick in Trump's wall. Got it in the mail today but threw it away. This is the type of identity politics crap that will make white voters go for Gillespie. Somewhat Pink Floyd ish reference so that was cool I guess but he doesn't need gutter mailers to help him in the home stretch in PW. Hispanics will vote Dem anyway even if turnout is low (which it usually is for off off year elections).

[SoLongAtlas]

Northam campaign sending out mailers in PW that has a wall with bricks labelled bigotry, hatred, etc., etc. And says Gillespie is anti-hispanic, will be another brick in Trump's wall. Got it in the mail today but threw it away. This is the type of identity politics crap that will make white voters go for Gillespie. Somewhat Pink Floyd ish reference so that was cool I guess but he doesn't need gutter mailers to help him in the home stretch in PW. Hispanics will vote Dem anyway even if turnout is low (which it usually is for off off year elections).

Uh...hasn't Gillespie's entire campaign been identity politics? The double standard is insane. Pandering to resentful whites is no less identity politics than pandering to minorities.

Which is what I'm pointing out. He shouldn't have authorized that mailer and it will be seen as a low road tactic and cause him to lose votes.

[SoLongAtlas]

The takeaway from this election will be how Northam ran up huge margins in the metro areas to essentially guarantee himself winning statewide. Northam will win by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%. Same goes for Fairfax and Herring.

If PW and Fairfax vote. Historically, gubernatorial turnout here is like 40%. VB, even as Northam's home base, is a conservative area. If downstate comes out and if turnout is diluted in NoVA, it will be a closer race than people think.

[SoLongAtlas]

SEIU is canvassing PW right now. They just left a Northam-Fairfax-Herring door hanger on my door. It's pretty good in terms of print quality; hits hard on Medicaid expansion and livable wage on the back.

[SoLongAtlas]

I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

He's much more liberal (not just than Northam, but also more liberal than Kaine, T-Mac, Warner, and Herring; this isn't necessarily bad or anything, but it means he'll face a tougher race since he also doesn't have the appeal of someone like Perriello to non-NOVA, Republican-leaning parts of the state), lacks Northam's base in the normally Republican-leaning Virginia Beach/Eastern Shore area, lacks Northam's ability to potentially make inroads in the rural areas, and (this part is just my opinion) he has the lean-and-hungry look, so to speak.  The other thing is that (sadly) there's still a risk (especially outside of NOVA) of him facing a small Bradley Effect due to his skin color.  However, Fairfax and Perriello far more in tune with the future of the Virginia Democratic Party than Northam, but the state just isn't there quite yet (and I say that as someone who was an enthusiastic Perriello supporter in during the primary).  Folks like Herring, Northam, etc are the bridge between the past† and the future** as far as Virginia Democratic politicians go. 

What's interesting is that rather than adapting to changing times, the Virginia Republican Party (much like the Republican Party as a whole, but this is one of the best examples) seems to be doubling-down on a doomed (at least in the long-term) "old Virginia" strategy of scorched earth race-baiting and fire-and-brimstone religious demagoguery.  They insist on either running batsh!t insane lunatics (Corey Stewart, The Cooch, E.W. Jackson, etc), forcing otherwise electable candidates to reinvent themselves as far-right bomb-throwers (Gillespie, the VA GOP pushing that transvaginal ultrasound bill in 2012, etc), or simply boxing out electable candidates (Bill Bolling being the most infamous example).  This is going to be self-destructive in the long-term and I'm honestly not sure why they seem to be so stubborn about digging their own grave in Virginia statewide politics, but I digress.

*White, male, center-left politicians with solid socially liberal credentials who still have some real appeal to some of the swingier Republican-leaning parts of Virginia

†Moderate and center-right white Democrats like Mark Warner, pre-Senate Tim Kaine, Creigh Deeds, etc who bank on an unusually strong appeal in rural areas and try to win by appealing to Republican-leaning independents/less partisan Republicans with moderate or even center-right positions on issues like gun control, taxes, abortion, the death penalty, etc.  Even with Kaine (who was easily the most liberal Virginia Democrat to come anywhere near winning statewide when he was elected Governor), you had some remarkably right-wing social views by today's standards.  For example, Kaine not only supported a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, but even argued in 2005 that only married couples should be legally allowed to adopt children. 

**Younger, liberal/solidly center-left Democratic politicians with socially liberal views who (with occasional exceptions like Perriello) are based in NOVA and whose campaigns are tailored toward 1) the Democratic base and 2) suburban voters, are less concerned with keeping down Republican margins in rural Virginia, and don't make all that much of a play for crossover votes aside from more affluent, pro-choice folks who vote Republican because they want low taxes, but also care a great deal about issues like education and transportation. 

Anyway, that's my #HotTake on the state of Virginia politics; I didn't mean for it to be anywhere near this long   Our resident Virginians can obviously correct me if I'm wrong about any of this.

To a certain extent but understand that VA dems are still moderate by and large. They want low but effective taxes and better infrastructure. Social issues don't have as big a pull here, true, but it cuts both ways. Run on leftist issues as a Dem and risk NoVA and Richmond moderates at your own peril. VA is not CA by any stretch. Go south of Prince William and understand. Talk to workers in Ffx and PW and this will become clearer.

[SoLongAtlas]

Relevant, one comment but if this is a trend... (and it's looking likely)

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2404/Which-party-will-win-the-2017-Virginia-gubernatorial-race
The Zenome Project • an hour ago
The Latino Victory ad has done quite a bit of damage, at least with my greater family in NoVA. My relatives there were saying that a bunch of their people were either going to stay away from the election or vote Gillespie after seeing that commercial. It's also going viral on mainstream conservative media, as Tucker Carlson covered it last night and Mark Dice (the right-wing TMZ account) posted the commercial a few hours ago.

[SoLongAtlas]

There are so few Latino voters in VA I am not sure why this group is even getting involved. Maybe a positive mailer would've been more effective than an ad that only generates negative press for Northam.

This ad is geared to "northeastern" NoVa suburbanites that don't like the "racist southern rednecks" that live in the "other" parts of the state and playing up to the fears of the white nationalists from Charlottesville. It's not pretty, but it's a good response to the dirt that Gillespie has run.

You know what, I am so sick of this IDENTITY POLITICS BS from the Democrats that it almost makes me want to vote for Ed. They need to get off their holier than thou high horse esp come next year and more so in 2020. I am originally from NJ but raised in central VA and moved to NoVA due to a job opportunity and I can tell you not everyone south of PW is some "dumb redneck, herp derp, uhuh!" It is actually quite moderate but some conservative areas but a beautiful part of the state but is suffering economically. But let's ignore that Dems and just keep calling them hicks! Sure, that's a great way to win more votes...

[SoLongAtlas]

There are so few Latino voters in VA I am not sure why this group is even getting involved. Maybe a positive mailer would've been more effective than an ad that only generates negative press for Northam.

This ad is geared to "northeastern" NoVa suburbanites that don't like the "racist southern rednecks" that live in the "other" parts of the state and playing up to the fears of the white nationalists from Charlottesville. It's not pretty, but it's a good response to the dirt that Gillespie has run.

You know what, I am so sick of this IDENTITY POLITICS BS from the Democrats that it almost makes me want to vote for Ed. I won't but they need to get off their holier than thou high horse esp come next year and more so in 2020. I am originally from NJ but raised in central VA and moved to NoVA due to a job opportunity and I can tell you not everyone south of PW is some "dumb redneck, herp derp, uhuh!" It is actually quite moderate but some conservative areas but a beautiful part of the state but is suffering economically. But let's ignore that Dems and just keep calling them hicks! Sure, that's a great way to win more votes...

Wait, Gillespie has been running white identity ads on MS-13 and Confederate statues for months, but it's the Democrats that only do identity politics?

What am I missing here?

Both sides are guilty of running these trashy ads as I previously commented here

[SoLongAtlas]

Another thing, adding in the Gadsden license plate to the truck was an insanely idiotic move. Those are everywhere in VA and one of the most popular in the state, esp. with veterans and AD. Northam could very well lose % pts in PW and Ffx margins (Quantico, Belvoir, moderate vets and AD) based off something like that alone, even though this ad wasn't from him.

[SoLongAtlas]

Oh f**k off with this "both sides" bs Moderate Ed's been running a disgusting white identity politics campaign for months including calling Ralph a pedo protector and now you give him crap for fighting fire with fire?

I give him crap for doing it, Northam for doing it, and now this Latino group for doing it with the disgusting ad. Most Virginians don't favor ads like these from either side and I have personally been told so by people who are tired of them, ignoring them on TV, throwing away the mailers (Ed's not Northam's). They mailers are practically useless now and they have been ramping up the "scary racist Ed" ones in PW County. It promptly went into the trash.

Both sides are guilty of running their respective campaigns into the gutter in the home stretch for turnout and it is despicable.

[SoLongAtlas]

Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

I will vote for him because EG is bad on several issues but right in pointing out the VA needs econ diversification, better infrastructure, less traffic in NOVA. To be fair, Northam has pointed these out as well but the only focus we are getting now is the racial stuff which really is a turnoff and a bad way to close out the last week.

[SoLongAtlas]

Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

I will vote for him because EG is bad on several issues but right in pointing out the VA needs econ diversification, better infrastructure, less traffic in NOVA. To be fair, Northam has pointed these out as well but the only focus we are getting now is the racial stuff which really is a turnoff and a bad way to close out the last week.

Again, it's, not, his, campaign. And if he's already addressing what you need to hear, what's the problem? Where was all the outrage from the people you know when Gillespie started running pedophilia ads?

Northam's campaign has not disavowed the ad.
Previously posted, also as previously stated above

[SoLongAtlas]

Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

I will vote for him because EG is bad on several issues but right in pointing out the VA needs econ diversification, better infrastructure, less traffic in NOVA. To be fair, Northam has pointed these out as well but the only focus we are getting now is the racial stuff which really is a turnoff and a bad way to close out the last week.

Again, it's, not, his, campaign. And if he's already addressing what you need to hear, what's the problem? Where was all the outrage from the people you know when Gillespie started running pedophilia ads?

Northam's campaign has not disavowed the ad.
Previously posted, also as previously stated above

Won't most of the attention be on the indictments though? I doubt that this ad will be on most people's minds next week still as the prevailing news item. If people feel that strongly about this ad, they were probably already gonna vote. Yeah, it certainly doesn't help Northam in any way, but I don't think it's a killer by any means.

Also, Gillespie never disavowed Trump saying that Northam supported Ms-13

Remains to be seen but that will be a factor. How big of a factor will be in exit polls and the gen election margins so can't gauge that unless they do a snap poll within the next 6 days before the 7th hits.

[SoLongAtlas]

Virginia isn't all that white. Or all that rural anymore either.

Race and Hispanic Origin   
White alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   70.0%
Black or African American alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   19.8%
American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   0.5%
Asian alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   6.6%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   0.1%
Two or More Races, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)   2.9%
Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(b)   9.1%
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)   62.4%

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/VA

[SoLongAtlas]

Most of the areas in red have large rural tracts. VA isn't a state with gigantic cities filling up entire counties. Additionally, all cities in VA are independent.

You are correct in that, as of the 2010 census, just under 25% of the state is rural but that doesn't take into account the fact that some "suburban or city" portions of VA would qualify as rural to some from a larger, more urban state. For example, if you live in Cville you might live down the road further on 29 in Albemarle and it might be construed as "city" but it's really not.

[SoLongAtlas]

The other problem is Northam's best play is probably to ignore it and hope people forget. The reality is that if he condemned the ad the base would rebel and he would lose votes, while if he openly supports it it will just make matters worse. The ad makes clear the disparities among the leftmost supporters of Northam and the moderates at just about the worst possible time.

The indictments might end up being a godsend for Northam honestly, in that they will allow more liberal networks to focus on national factors that play well for him vs local factors that may be swinging against him.

I'm gonna make a prediction: Gillespie will, now that he can probably count on the support of rural whites, release an end-of-campaign message as very similar to the one Donald Trump blanketed Michigan with near the end of the race last November, essentially just outlining his positive plans for Virginia (look for Transportation and economic growth messaging in particular) and trying to make the most recent image of him in voters' minds be a positive one. It's a campaign tactic that has worked for the GOP before (run negative, negative, negative right up to the week of the election, then close with a positive message), and it's a play the Democrats must prepare for - there won't be enough time to cut an uplifting Northam ad in response, and it looks really bad if a negative ad from one party runs concurrently with a positive one from the other right before the election.

Gillespie knows what he is doing and I feel like either Northam doesn't have as good control of his campaign as I previously thought, or external forces beyond his control are sabotaging him.

I think this will be a wild week.

Almost psychic, that's exactly what he is doing. Latest ad as of 9 mins ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg3Gac44cl4

[SoLongAtlas]

Look there is really no point in arguing endlessly about this. Greedo is not going to change his mind, and I doubt many of us are either. I don't think he is correct but in the end I can't say for sure what will happen next week.

Let's just wait and see, because this isn't really accomplishing anything.

Agreed but Atlas don't let this distract you from the fact that Greedo never shot first or simultaneously but was shot by Han first like the little punk he was.

[SoLongAtlas]

Pulled "due to events" and not because the ad is garbage both by ad standards and politically. This group truly is a piece of sh*t

https://twitter.com/latinovictoryus/status/925492979011325953

[SoLongAtlas]

They did a bad thing by firing up an army of snowflakes. I'm glad they pulled it down before it got to be a big problem.

Yes, let's call everyone snowflakes and ignore the backlash against this ad by Virginians of both sides of the spectrum, including backlash from Latino(a)s. Also they were idiots to run this ad when something like this actually happened here but since the perp was here illegally, the news coverage dropped off https://www.mediaite.com/columnists/a-muslim-girl-in-virginia-was-actually-chased-by-a-vehicle-and-killed-but-by-an-illegal-immigrant/ Latino Victory is probably run by 20 something staffers with not a whiff of actual govt/professional PR experience.

This will give Gillespie at least five thousand more votes. Mark my words. And Northam has STILL not officially put out a press release distancing himself from that ad. It might be ill advised to do so but it does show leadership to get out in front of it.

[SoLongAtlas]

You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

[SoLongAtlas]

You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

I am a Virginian and I am sick and tired of jackasses who keep arguing in bad faith. They don't care about race-baiting, they are mainly upset because this ad hits close to home and deep down they know it is true.

How many incidences of Confederate trucks running down little kids have occurred in the Commonwealth?

[SoLongAtlas]

You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

I am a Virginian and I am sick and tired of jackasses who keep arguing in bad faith. They don't care about race-baiting, they are mainly upset because this ad hits close to home and deep down they know it is true.

How many incidences of Confederate trucks running down little kids have occurred in the Commonwealth?

That's a very literal reading. I took it more to be about the resurgence of white supremacy which is undeniably happening in Virginia and elsewhere right now.

Regardless, it's a pulled ad from an external advocacy group which is not linked to Northam. Why are you making it into such a big deal?

Most of those goons in Cville were from out of state. As to the second item, I am making this an issue because any self-respecting, professional campaign would have distanced themselves from a supporting PAC's controversial ad publicly and pretty much the day of. To do otherwise, shows weakness and tacit approval of said ad. EG will gain from this liberal Dem vs. moderate Dem mixed signalling and eat it up both operationally and electorally on the 7th.

Edit: the fact that it took a terrorist attack to make the LV group pull this ad and there is still no official RN campaign response is telling.

[SoLongAtlas]

Maybe you guys missed my analysis earlier, but I fail to see how this ad will dramatically alter the race. It orogionally only had 32K behind it in NOVA, miniscule compared to the 4.5 million being spent by Gillesipe and Northam combined in that market. Now with it cut, not even those voters will see it. Rather, the primary viewers of the Latino Victory ad before, and after it being cut are partisans - mainly out of state. If you are on the right or the left you will see the ad in your political/social feed, linked by someone wanting to make a point. But you have already decided which way to vote, and if you are going to vote. This is arguably why I think Northam doesn't need to mention the ad: they were not directly connected to him, they ran the ad for a very limited window of time, and mentioning them will draw unwanted attention.

What is the local news in VA even talking about? This ad? Or the Mueller investgation? Or the NY attack? Or local campaign goings on in the final days? Or tax reform? Or the HoD?

Gee let's look at some of the top stories at the most popular daily VA papers' sites:
 
http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/latino-victory-fund-pulls-truck-themed-anti-gillespie-ad-after/article_f6e38527-fbd3-52eb-8b63-03a46c109c7c.html

https://pilotonline.com/news/government/politics/virginia/controversial-anti-gillespie-ad-with-racial-images-designed-to-lure/article_548d9534-e799-5d61-96cb-5906578bb811.html

These circulate with older VA residents and transit areas, VA gubernatorials have ~40% turnout, you see the picture right?

[SoLongAtlas]

Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie

Will their be a chorus of condemnation to this one too?

VAModerate, we're waiting.

My previous posts about both sides doing this should suffice. I think I'm going to just wait it out and comment here again on the 8th.