Religon, Race, and 2008 Election Results: Your County

[Bacon King]

Barrow County, GA

Race:

• White Non-Hispanic Alone (77.3%)
• Black Non-Hispanic Alone (11.2%)
• Hispanic or Latino (7.2%)
• Asian alone (3.1%)
• Two or more races (1.0%)

Religion:
Percentage of population affiliated with a religious congregations: 33.74%

• Evangelical Denominations 62.6%
• Mainline Protestant Denominations 30.4%
• Catholic Church 4.5%
• Other Denominations 2.4% (this is the LDS church plus nine Baha'i adherents that apparently live in the county)

Largest denominations:

• Southern Baptist Convention 49.6%
• United Methodist Church 22.4%
• Christian Churches and Churches of Christ 6.8%
• Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) 5.9%

2008 Election Results:

• McCain (Republican): 72.5%
• Obama (Democratic): 27.4%

Orleans Parish, Louisiana (where I lived during the 2008 election)
 
Race

• Black alone 61.2%
• White alone 29.8%
• Hispanic 4.7%
• Asian alone 3.0%
• Two or more races 0.8%
• Other race alone 0.3%
• American Indian alone 0.1%

Religion
Percentage of population affiliated with a religious congregations: 44.13%

• Catholic Church 63.8%
• Evangelical Denominations 18.5%
• Maineline Protestant Denominations 11.0%
• Orthodox Denominations 0.3%
• Other Denominations 6.3%

Largest Denominations

• Catholic Church 63.8%
• Southern Baptist Convention 13.0%
• United Methodist Church 5.2%
• Episcopal Church 2.9%

2008 Election Results

• Barack Obama 79.4%
• John McCain 19.1%
• Cynthia McKinney 0.7%
• Ron Paul 0.4%
• Ralph Nader 0.3%
• Chuck Baldwin 0.1%

That's interesting but I don't see any reason why the trend will continue. If anything, if Obama wins it will be due to some of this demographic coming back to him, as well as more union and working class types across the north (see Ohio). If they don't, he will lose. But let's say he loses by 7 points, which was the GOP advantage in 2010, he would still only lose by 30 points in your precinct and a bit more in LN assuming no trend from 2010. Even if there is a trend towards the Republicans in 2012 in your hood, it will be hard to get to a 40 point advantage. Anyways it won't happen. Feel free to dig this up in November if you want.

On this subject, I do wonder how many unionized workers will vote for Obama in 2012 compared to 2008. Didn't McCain win around 40% of them?

Union members split 67-30 in favor of Obama in 2008. I see him improving that number by a few points, maybe: Romney's certainly a less hospitable candidate for union members than McCain was, and Republican governors in swing states have been engendering a lot of hostility from organized labor recently. However, you have to figure that Obama has a ceiling of 75% or so due to the union members who vote Republican for religious, social, or other non-economic reasons.