Kentucky 2003

[NHPolitico]

The 2000 "election" was a paradox.

The most economically depressed areas trended Republican, while economically prosperous areas trended Democratic.

It made no sense whatsoever.

That's not an anomaly. It's the way these states have voted for over 10 years now-- longer in some cases.  It's why Howard Dean is so frustrated. He says, "Hey, look at me! I come with higher minimum wages, 'free' healthcare paid for with Yankee tax dollars, so why don't you wrap your loving arms around me?" Bush probably feels the same way. The biggest beneficiaries of his tax break plan are Gore staters.  For all the talk that voters vote their pocketbook, they sure don't do it in any way that makes sense.

[NHPolitico]

As far as VA-9 goes, that was just Hyperbole to make a point

But I think that the Dems do have an excellent chance in VA next election... but it depends on the candidate.

In 2000 VA did not vote as solidly GOP as everyone thought it would, Bush's margin was under 10%

VA as a whole is (slowly) trending back towards the Dems, as is evidenced by them having a net gain in the State Assembly for the first time in about 30 years.

The Upper South as a whole looks promising for the Dems next election.
As long as they don't pick someone like Kerry...

Warner ran as a pro-gun, anti-tax Bubba-at-heart. He's not governing that way, but that's how he ran. Same in Louisiana with Blanco. No national Democrat can run that way.

Regarding the legislature, you need more than that for a trend.  Going from 65% control to 61% control isn't that big of a drop. One of those lost seats was a black district that Winsome Sears could have held on to, but chose not to run for re-election. In the Senate, the GOP went from 57.5% control to 60% control.  Even if they'd lost a seat, it still would have made that election a meaningless blip at this point.

[NHPolitico]

doesn't VA still have the one term only term limit for its governors?

As far as VA-9 goes, that was just Hyperbole to make a point

But I think that the Dems do have an excellent chance in VA next election... but it depends on the candidate.

In 2000 VA did not vote as solidly GOP as everyone thought it would, Bush's margin was under 10%

VA as a whole is (slowly) trending back towards the Dems, as is evidenced by them having a net gain in the State Assembly for the first time in about 30 years.

The Upper South as a whole looks promising for the Dems next election.
As long as they don't pick someone like Kerry...

Warner ran as a pro-gun, anti-tax Bubba-at-heart. He's not governing that way, but that's how he ran. Same in Louisiana with Blanco. No national Democrat can run that way.

Regarding the legislature, you need more than that for a trend.  Going from 65% control to 61% control isn't that big of a drop. One of those lost seats was a black district that Winsome Sears could have held on to, but chose not to run for re-election. In the Senate, the GOP went from 57.5% control to 60% control.  Even if they'd lost a seat, it still would have made that election a meaningless blip at this point.

Yep. I think George Allen would still be governor without that dumb limit. He'd be perfectly positioned for 2008 as a "Pataki" from Virginia.