LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[2016]

Results Page from the New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/12/us/elections/results-louisiana-primary-elections.html

[2016]

LOL,
Early Vote always is scewed towards the D's in every State these Days in the Country and someone now says EV has R bias.

[2016]

Pretty certain that this will go to a Runoff. There ain't enough Votes left to push JBE over 50%. Mission Accomplished by Republicans.

[2016]

The Impeachment Crap from Democrats does one thing right from the GET-GO: Unite Republican Voters. Another month from D's with that sort of nonsense and Rispone might have a shot to pull this off.

[2016]

Last year it was Kavanaugh, now its impeachment. There's always an excuse. And yet in late 2017, at the peak of Trump's unpopularity, a Democrat only defeated a pedophile by 2 points in AL despite half of Republicans not showing up. Polarization is real, inelasticity is real, get the hell over it.

And in the Senate Races where Kavanaugh mattered Democrats lost. Manchin had the Courage to vote for Kavanaugh and won.

[2016]

I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

Let's be real. The only reason JBE is Governor of Louisiana is because of David Vitter. Had he faced Agnelle he would have lost.

[2016]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

It seems fairly realistic.

Give me a Break! Beshear will win a lot more than just 6 Counties. Jesus.

[2016]

The larger than expected Victory for Tate Reeves in neighboring MS doesn't bode well for JBE. Polarization are very well in place here.

[2016]

The larger than expected Victory for Tate Reeves in neighboring MS doesn't bode well for JBE. Polarization are very well in place here.

A 5 point win for a Republican in a state that's far more racially polarized than Louisiana actually bodes quite well for Edwards.

Sure, Hood was a "strong candidate", but again, Louisiana is less racially polarized than MS and Bel Edwards is a popular incumbent. he'll win by 2-4, I think.

Everyone needs to know JBE is pretty much an accidential Governor. Without Vitter's Scandals Bel Edwards would never won there in 2015. He used Vitters Problems to win the Election. Rispone is a much better Candidate and D Outside Groups carpet-bombing Rispone doesn't do Edwards so called popularity any justice.

Of the 3 Republican Candidates running for Governor this year (Bevin, Reeves and Rispone) Eddie Rispone has the least baggage IMO.