PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS

[Torie]

There has never been much real movement in this race. Why should there be? Toomey is a very competent, smooth and knowledgeable candidate, so it is not as if some misstep of his will distract voters when the issues are going his way, in a state where more voters dislike Obama at the moment than like him. The bounces are largely ersatz, IMO. The pollsters just change their turnout models from time to time, except Ras, yes I know. What states am I interested in?  CO (there, there might be real movement, because Buck allows himself to get off message - the message being $$$$$$), WV, CT, IL, WA (I wish, I wish, upon a star), and CA (the latter not because I really think Carly has much of a chance, but because my zip code lies within it).

[Torie]

Even if this is accurate, this much more of a race than CT is.

That is what the polls suggest, with the ersatz/ephemeral bounce creating more buzz in PA on top. But I suspect CT will be tight on election night. You just wait. Sure if I had to bet, with even odds,  it would be against my girl.

[Torie]

Even if this is accurate, this much more of a race than CT is.

That is what the polls suggest, with the ersatz/ephemeral bounce creating more buzz in PA on top. But I suspect CT will be tight on election night. You just wait. Sure if I had to bet, with even odds,  it would be against my girl.

So you think CT will be closer than PA? Of course both Sestak and Linda will lose, it's just the margins that are of interest at this moment.

Yes.  Of course, the polls contradict me. But putting aside Whitman, when it comes to my predictions, particularly in this cycle (and yes, I refuse to remember anything about the Del Senate GOP primary ) ... ?  Pride commeth before the fall, and I no doubt need to be taken down a notch. ):