US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Torie]

It arguably makes sense from a CoI view. Putting Easton with Stroudsburg, I mean, not with the 17th Dem sink.
I suppose there'll be people wanting to keep the Lehigh Valley together, though.

I just searched through your list of numbers to find out what number you're giving the Lancaster/Reading/Harrisburg seat. 9? Wtf? Use the original color scheme except where there's very good reason, please.

This got me to guessing the numbering scheme.
Republican incumbents usually keep their number. Platts can't. The abolished district is presumably the 12th. Evidently some district needs to take that number, and just as evidently Shuster and Murphy are particularly unlikely recipients (not that district number actually affects anything, but this is how things tend to go...) Platts to 12 is the easiest fix... but it's not without alternative. It's such a strange number for that part of the map, after all. Platts to 17, Holden to 12? (Or even Platts to 17, Holden to 13, Schwartz to 12?) That creates a nice little cluster of Dem numbers.

Sorry, I should have put up the color legend. It is up now. I need to change colors sometimes as the lines move around, and different CD's append each other, to get adequate contrast. Such is life.

[Torie]

The most recent, detailed take on the maps - http://earlyreturns.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/early-returns-20/53-post-gazette-staff/3693-show-time

It turns out Fattah, not Schwartz, is getting all of Lower Merion.

If the maps really are released on Monday, this upcoming weekend will be even more of a blast since it's the annual Pennsylvania Society Weekend in New York City (yeah, hearing about it for the first time makes people think to themselves, "Pennsylvania Society in New York?" but it makes sense. It's a little getaway for politicos). I can't wait. Aside from getting stuck in a bad district, a map release on Monday will be horrible since I have jury duty.  

My guesstimate of the House map as described in the article Phil linked.

[Torie]

Good work Torie. I really dislike the result of your map, but I appreciate all the effort you put into it.

Thanks.  I found a few of those pesky tiny non-contiguous precincts, which after cleaning them up forced PA-05 to suck up 6,000 more folks in 3 to 1 Obama precincts in Erie, causing PA-05 to fall to unacceptably low Pubbie levels. So I did a scramble, pushing PA-09 into Centre County to suck up all the State College Obama suburbs and some Centre County river towns on its east side. The article implied that PA-09 crashed down to a GOP PVI of 11, and this gets down to around that number, meaning that PA-09 probably does chop into Centre, if Fayette and Greene Counties are left whole, as the article further implied. Plus anything that irritates that porker hack Shuster some more,  is always a good thing.

[Torie]

Also, I'm pretty much on the border between Pitts's district (light gray in the second picture) and the brown district above it of Northern Lancaster, Lebanon, and parts of Berks, Dauphin and Chester.

Also, is the 18th supposed to be the one Democratic district in SW PA (other than Pittsburgh)?

The 18th is the Goldilocks CD, not too Pubbie (Murphy would be T Partied), and not too Dem (he would lose maybe to a Tory Dem), but just right. It's about even historically, but swung hard to McCain (thus its high Pubbie PVI based on 2008 numbers only), and I don't think it is going to swing back to even anytime soon. I think the Pubbie trend in western PA has legs.

[Torie]

It doesn't really matter. Murphy doesn't look like he's going to retire anytime soon.

Weren't we supposed to get a map yesterday?

Delayed till Wednesday.

They're checking numbers against Torie's.

LOL.. Nah, the Congresspersons and the State House dudes are just all at each other's throats. That is what happens when the margin for error is so thin, and folks all want something better than before, rather than worse. Poor Thompson in PA-05 seems to be getting really screwed, and will end up with a  close to marginal CD if they don't do the State College chop.  It is inconvenient that Thompson lives in Centre County.

There is probably another nasty fight going on over Lancaster City and Reading, and who gets those nodes of toxicity for Pubbies. The map doesn't work too well unless PA-12 joins the fray. I suppose if you want the map uglier, PA-12 could move into Harrisburg, and PA-17 into Reading, since apparently PA-12 moving into Lancaster is some cardinal sin (like chopping Bucks) in the PA local culture.  The point is that PA-12 needs to do something to suck up some Dem nodes.

[Torie]

Let's hope you mean the former Miss PA-19 when you refer to PA-12.

The prime fight is still over how Altmire is to be treated (and thus how self-selected Kelly, Thompson, Murphy, and Shuster's constituents will be), I think. If the Representatives got their way, the 4th would be conceded. That is unlikely, but some kind of bizarro compromise that ends up accomplishing the same with more vote wastage is not.

Yes, I found the Lord at last, and Shuster keeps his number 9. 

[Torie]

Well the  map is undergoing a lot of changes. Barletta has decided he doesn't want Wilkes Barre anymore, the 7th is going into Montco big time, the 16th seems that it will suck up both Lancaster and Reading (doesn't make any sense to me but whatever), the 5th is just going to get just the Erie suburbs now, and not half of the whole ball of wax, and the fight is for Pubbies in Beaver County between the 3rd CD and the 4th CD.  The knives are out. Oh, and Lebanon is bi-chopped between the 6th and 15th CD's rather than being all in the 16th CD. I guess that is what frees up the 16th to suck up Reading, poor thing.  Berks is quad-chopped. In other news, Corbett  wants Wyoming to be in Barletta's CD (rather than Perry), so he gets part of the shale empire, the better to reap campaign contributions from them. I guess that industry feels the need to purchase politicians. Maybe that is why Wilkes Barre is no longer the apple of Barletta's eye. Maybe he values votes more than money.

This map is going to be a mess, almost as "gorgeous" as Ohio it seems like. Stay tuned.

[Torie]

Let's hope you mean the former Miss PA-19 when you refer to PA-12.

The prime fight is still over how Altmire is to be treated (and thus how self-selected Kelly, Thompson, Murphy, and Shuster's constituents will be), I think. If the Representatives got their way, the 4th would be conceded. That is unlikely, but some kind of bizarro compromise that ends up accomplishing the same with more vote wastage is not.

Conceding 2 districts probably creates some problems for Murphy. If he's the only Republican down there, he pretty much swoops up a lot of suburban Republicans who are more conservative than he is.

Nah, I was thinking along the lines (for their wet dream, that is) he'd pick and choose what he wants, Kelly picks and chooses what he wants (except that Thompson vetoes Kelly shedding all of Erie, obviously), even Shuster picks only what he's ready to take from Critz' district. The rest of the two districts is combined, except Doyle obviously picks up Democrats.
Altmire and Critz would be paired in what would probably be a slightly weaker McCain district than what Altmire currently has. Everybody's happy. Except for Republican hopefuls looking for a district to run in, of course. And they exist, as we know.

Something like that looks about like an L; starting at Beaver/New Castle county and running along the border to Fayette and Green Counties.


Latest news is that Barletta will start at Luzerne and swoop down to Harrisburg. Holden will get Schuylkill, Lackawanna, Wilkes Barre, Reading, and Easton.

Are so, here is the map for the day, circa December 7, 2011.  

[Torie]

The leaping gazelle!

It is a pity that PA-01 does not impinge into Montco, so the number of CD's in that county can get up to a lucky 7, rather than a mere 6!  

[Torie]

Correct. The Philadelphia Democratic party might get its desired districts. Bob Brady in particular has been helpful in the past. .

Brady wants Northeast Philly, even stretching all the way up to my part of the Northeast (the Far Northeast which borders Bucks). It seemed like it was going to happen awhile ago but there hasn't been talk about it recently.

Piece of cake as long as PA-13 marches into Delaware County, wrapping around Lower Merion, and then jutting down to the Philly airport at least, and maybe all the way to down the Delaware River to beautiful downtown Chester.  The map is now hideously ugly anyway. I now realize from the description that PA-07 goes almost all the way down to the City of Philly along the Bucks County border taking in Morelands. I will put up my "corrected" map later. It's hilarious!   Leashing PA-07 to just 40,000 residents in Lancaster per the ultimatum of the Lancaster County legislators got the Pubbies rather desperate, so any community of interest issues were flushed, and it is all done precinct by precinct, just the way I did it with my very first PA map!    

What the Pubs really need to do is my excise South Philly trick  (those 20 or so 51% McCain precincts), putting them into PA-07 via the airport runway (the only entrance thereto not packed with Dems as opposed to planes ), and then have PA-13 grab Swarthmore and some other "bad places" in Delaware. We shall see if they finally decide to "just do it."  

[Torie]

What the Pubs really need to do is my excise South Philly trick  (those 20 or so 51% McCain precincts), putting them into PA-07 via the airport runway (the only entrance thereto not packed with Dems as opposed to planes ),

Here's where our disagreement from before rears its head again: mixing of suburban counties with Philly is generally seen as a no-no. The suburban parties usually dislike it even if it means picking up areas that help their party. Plus, it's a mixing of individual personalities within the parties that doesn't necessarily work out.

Not to sound like some know it all but it's real insider stuff that others don't know. People like yourself, Lewis, muon, etc. are people that look at this from a more idealistic standpoint. You experiment with maps that benefit members of a party and/or ideology but also make maps that are fair to communities. It's more idealistic and fun but it's a lot more than looking at an area and saying, "Well, Township X went 54% for McCain so Republicans have to put that in!"

Yes, that is all well and good, but the Pubs per what is published, are already in the desperation mode vis a vis PA-07.  I haven't read anywhere anyway, about the South Philly rule.  That does not mean it is not out there of course. Those south Philly Italians and airline pilots and stews really want to be a tiny minority in a sea of Dems represented by a solid phalanx of Dems do they?  Who knew?  

Anyway, here is the redraw, which coincidentally "fits" the published number that PA-07 is about 2 points more Pubbie than the national average. Brady can't get more of NE Philly unless he is drawn out of his home, which is in the far NW prong jut of his CD in Philly, a nice middle class 87% black neighborhood. He has a nice little ranch house with a very nice lawn.

You have to admit, that PA-13 has become a just awesome looking CD, even better than PA-07.  And yes, I slipped Swarthmore into it.  And PA-13 is now 66% Obama. Schwartz might be primaried. She may be too moderate for this little erose monster!  LOL.

[Torie]

Those south Philly Italians and airline pilots and stews really want to be a tiny minority in a sea of Dems represented by a solid phalanx of Dems do they?  Who knew?  

It doesn't have to do with the voters, Torie.    It's a political insider game.

And I'm not sure what you mean about the "South Philly rule." If you're referring to my points, it's isn't exclusive to South Philly.

Well, south Philly is not in play at the moment, so the matter is moot. I think I broke the code.  If I had to guess, this is very close to the SE PA portion of the map sitting on the desk of the map decision makers, per the array of clues. It more or less does the job for the Pubs - barely. PA voters seem to take a lot of abuse don't they? And they seem to have a lot of tolerance for political hacks, going back decades - of both parties. Maybe all these cheese-steaks make them too fat to get off their couch. That is what caught my eye in PA - all those fats.

[Torie]

Here is another version of the map, which may be a bit more likely to be adopted. It does some major surgery on PA-05, but its new geography better fits in with Thompson's Centre County base, and shifts 80 GOP basis points into his CD which he needs.  Most of the shift comes from Pubbie sink PA-10, which sheds a GOP point. On the other hand, this map moves 50 Pub basis points out of PA-04, better hewing to the published reports that its lines on its east end in Somerset and Cambria Counties will follow the old Critz CD lines: silly, but that was what was written.

Finally, Adams in this map stays in PA-12, rather than going to PA-09, with PA-09 taking up a lot more of Cumberland instead, also following existing lines more closely. It is one  half dozen or the other whether PA-09 takes Adams or Cumberland, but Congressmen tend to dislike new territory, and with PA-05 now dipping down into Huntingdon, the shape of PA-09 looks less grotesque jutting into Cumberland than in the prior version of the map, and that tipped the scales for me. It doesn't change the partisan balance between PA-09 and PA-12 (PA-12 picks up ten GOP basis points).

And oh yes, I "found" 20 more Pub basis points to shove into PA-07.  

[Torie]

Since the GOP is still fighting over their PA map, and it won't be released today, I figured I might as well put up another map, new and improved of course. Someone had the insight to have PA-10 suck up some of Erie in lieu of PA-05, and it made so much sense, that the Pubs might just do it. So with that fix, here is the map. Shuster (PA-09) should still suck up Johnstown to end all this chatter about PA-04, and just make it stone cold GOP, but Shuster is Shuster. Oh, yes, PA-10 and PA-05 do in fact have identical numbers. That is not a typo.

[Torie]

I guess I'll support Altmire.

Two thirds of the CD will be Altmire's old territory, if not more, and Pittsburg suburbs mostly, so I would not think Critz would have much of a chance. His old CD was ludicrous anyway - just a monstrosity. But I suspect the GOP would rather have Critz as an opponent.

[Torie]

The Congressional map has been worked out per the Capitolwire buzz except as to the issue of whether PA-07 gets but 40,000 residents in Lancaster County (the demand of the Lancaster County legislative delegation), or closer to 100,000 residents, which is what the incumbent in PA-07, Meehan wants. Thus the delay, and the battle continues. The map may not be finalized by tomorrow. Tempers are flaring.

All this leak stuff is fun! 

[Torie]

Not a bad idea, there. Of course, that 10th is totally hilarious.

The whole map is quite hilarious actually.  Here is the 100,000 thrust into Lancaster that Meehan is pining for for your viewing pleasure Lewis. The redraw put pressure on PA-06, so I needed to shave PA-17 a bit more, to get it to suck up some marginal precincts around Reading, so that PA-06 was not bogged down by them, and could get to the Pubbie promise land in upper NW Berks and part of Lebanon, and it had to give back to PA-07 heavily Dem West Chester to boot (that now cyan little box delimited by purple lines just to the west of the number "7" on the map).  

The geography gets very tight around Reading.  Originally, I had PA-11 do a parallel spike down to the Reading suburbs, but decided that was a bridge too far.  All in all, not a bad looking map.  Of course, it trashes county lines here, there, and everywhere, but that is what happens under partisan stress, where the pickings are so thin.  

I must say I have come to know the geography of Pennsylvania really, really well.  

[Torie]

That 6th district looks like modern art.

Can you discern the famous "mainline" RR on the map above Lewis?  Due to the small precincts that hug it (a long line of Dem precincts btw - the rich don't like to live right next to RR lines), you can follow it right from downtown Philly and see it go NWW, and then slowly curve and head SWW through Chester County. There are so many famous RR stops along that line, one prestigious university name after another. For the past two years, I have taken that line from the Paoli RR stop all the way to NYC. It gave me a kind of thrill.

[Torie]

My, a lot of changes from the buzz, at least at the margins. PA-11 does get Cumberland, PA-09 wanders off to Armstrong County, PA-15 does not go up the river in Beaver County, but instead up the river to New Kensington to the NE, the chop into Easton also grabs some Dem suburbs, and PA-07 and PA-06 are quite the surprise, with PA-07 being bounced out of all or most of Chester County. PA-07 does not get the 100,000 Lancaster residents (it looks more like 60,000), but in exchange, PA-16 marches into Chester to suck up some Dem precincts.  PA-11 does the job of taking the marginal suburbs of Harrisburg. The partisan numbers however should be quite close to mine -  very close.

[Torie]

18th: 55% McCain 51% Republican
4th: 54% McCain 50% Republican
3rd: 52% McCain 53% Republican
14th: 67% Obama 70% Democrat
9th: 59% McCain 57% Republican
5th: 52% McCain 54% Republican
12th (Platts): 54% McCain 59% Republican
10th: 56% McCain 60% Republican
11th: 53% McCain 56% Republican
17th: 57% Obama 57% Democrat
15th: 51% Obama 51% Republican
8th: 53% Obama 51% Democrat



Guesswork:

16th: 50% McCain 57% Republican
6th: 54% Obama 50% Republican
7th: 53% Republican

Are those published numbers, or ones you worked up krazen?

[Torie]

Maps by region (a lot clearer) - http://www.pahousegop.com/Display/SiteFiles/109/OtherDocuments/Congress_regionals.pdf


It looks like I'm just in the 13th.

  Correct. That part of the map matched mine exactly.

[Torie]

18th: 55% McCain 51% Republican
4th: 54% McCain 50% Republican
3rd: 52% McCain 53% Republican
14th: 67% Obama 70% Democrat
9th: 59% McCain 57% Republican
5th: 52% McCain 54% Republican
12th (Platts): 54% McCain 59% Republican
10th: 56% McCain 60% Republican
11th: 53% McCain 56% Republican
17th: 57% Obama 57% Democrat
15th: 51% Obama 51% Republican
8th: 53% Obama 51% Democrat



Guesswork:

16th: 50% McCain 57% Republican
6th: 54% Obama 50% Republican
7th: 53% Obama 50% Republican

Are those published numbers, or ones you worked up krazen?

Eyeballed and drew. They could be way off, particularly the last 3.

OK.  It is going to be a headache to draw PA-06 and 07. 

[Torie]

Twitter is full of people saying that Kennett Square in PA-16 is not contiguous with the rest of the district per the map. This has to be an image misrepresentation and not true, right?

Yes, in the preliminary map, it is not contiguous. That is because the map follows existing precincts. PA-07 needed to sneak south of Kennett Square to get into Lancaster the way the map was drawn, and this precinct surrounding Kennett appends PA's border with Delaware. So that precinct will have to be redrawn. The territory that needs to be filled in contains almost no people, so it is no big deal. A fair number of precincts will have to be redrawn to get exactly equal population numbers in any event.

[Torie]

PA 06, 07, 08 and 16 have been drawn. The population for PA-07 is spot on, as is PA-08, but for inexplicable reasons for the moment, PA-06 is short 2,500 people, and PA-16 short 4,500.  All four have lower GOP PVI's than my projected map (understandable for PA-16 which takes Reading rather than PA-17, but no excuses for PA-06 and PA-07). The Lancaster legislators' stonewall hurt a bit.  PA-07 only got 32,000 residents out of Lancaster. The cherry picking of precincts in Montco, Chester, and Delaware was also a bit flawed in my opinion. Maybe 40 or 50 basis points were left on the table, maybe a tad more, due to that. PA-08 is down by 20 Pubbie basis points from my projected map.

I must say that PA-07 is indeed a horrendous monstrosity - just awful. A fair amount of that is again due to the Lancaster County stonewall, forcing PA-07 into Berks, and PA-16 in turn cutting more deeply into Chester with that ludicrous prong to the north in Chester.

[Torie]

PA 06, 07, 08 and 16 have been drawn. The population for PA-07 is spot on, as is PA-08, but for inexplicable reasons for the moment, PA-06 is short 2,500 people, and PA-16 short 4,500.  All four have lower GOP PVI's than my projected map (understandable for PA-16 which takes Reading rather than PA-17, but no excuses for PA-06 and PA-07). The Lancaster legislators' stonewall hurt a bit.  PA-07 only got 32,000 residents out of Lancaster. The cherry picking of precincts in Montco, Chester, and Delaware was also a bit flawed in my opinion. Maybe 40 or 50 basis points were left on the table, maybe a tad more, due to that. PA-08 is down by 20 Pubbie basis points from my projected map.

I must say that PA-07 is indeed a horrendous monstrosity - just awful. A fair amount of that is again due to the Lancaster County stonewall, forcing PA-07 into Berks, and PA-16 in turn cutting more deeply into Chester with that ludicrous prong to the north in Chester.

MD-03 has a perfect partner in PA-07 as a poster child for redistricting reform. It looks like they were more concerned with holding PA-07 than with PA-06, based on the 2% boost it gets in comparison in your chart. Maybe there are other electoral factors at the local level.

As long as Gerlach remains the incumbent in PA-06, the seat will be held. He way, way outperforms. Meehan in PA-07 is a much weaker sister, both in tenure and in mental horsepower in general. Also, the swing to Obama was more pronounced in PA-06. As redrawn, the GOP/Dem numbers on the Bradlee utility are 51.9% GOP for PA-07, and 51.5% for PA-07, however that number is defined. Probably the real answer for PA is between the "generic" GOP performance, and the McCain numbers, for federal House seats