NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Torie]

AP called it for Giffords. Vidak's lead is down to 1,091 votes. McNerney's lead is at 441. Larsen's has expanded to 3,872.

The Vidak erosion needs to be balanced against the fact that it was all a Fresno county dump, and Vidak's trump card if he has one is Kings County. (Look at the time stamps on the County; the only recent one is Fresno.)

[Torie]

AP called it for Giffords.

But CarlHayden assured me that Giffords would lose!

When I saw Giffords on the tube, and after noticing who won the GOP primary to run against her, I had a pretty strong feeling Giffords would survive. She is a very supple operator and skilled politician.

[Torie]

What's with the bizarrely low turnout in CA-47? The latest returns are:

Sanchez: 35,792
Tran: 29,996
Iglesias: 4,974

That's only about 70,000 votes. Vote-by-mail counting may be causing somewhat of a lag, yes, but all the neighboring districts report turnout at least double that and there's no reason why one district should experience such a lag and not the others.

That is what happens when you have a district with tons of folks who are not citizens.

[Torie]

CA-20 is potentially even worse: only about 64,000 votes at the moment.

That district, in addition to the citizen issue, has a lot of empty houses.

[Torie]

It would have been tough to beat Manchin, by anyone, after he decided to cut his ties basically to the national Dem party. And he will continue to do that, since he has to run in two years. And after having done it for that long, it may brand him, and how that will work long term for him is problematical. He may end up being one unhappy Dem, and move on. Politics can be a tough sport these days.

[Torie]

The AP has called WA-02 for Larsen.

McNerney's lead has continued to slowly expand in CA-11; he's up to a 624 vote lead now. Vidak is down to a 145-vote lead in CA-20, and Fresno will be reporting on Wednesday, which will probably put Costa over the top.

Do you have a link to the CA-11 number?  And I can't find that neat AP link. I want to know what counties came in today. San Joaquin County's registrar of voters is not showing any new votes. If the new numbers are from San Joaquin, McNerney is going to win. If not, we will have to await San Joaquin to give some late absentee numbers, to see if the late ballots are more Dem than the earlier ballots phenomenon at least in California and Washington, obtains here. (The additions from CA-11 from late last week were also all from counties other than San Joaquin, all of which McNerney was ahead in as of last Wednesday.)

Costa will win CA-20. There is next to nothing to count as someone noted from Kings, which is the Pubbie's base. So it looks like probably the GOP will pick up 62 seats net, assuming that they bag NY-1 and NY-25.

[Torie]

No idea where the votes have come from; none of the articles I've found specify.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/general/by_county/us_house/CA.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Just replace CA with whatever state abbreviation you like.

Actually, the thousand votes or so that came in today for CA-11, all from Santa Clara County, vis a vis what was counted by last Wednesday, were a slight improvement for Harmer. Harmer is still alive - for the moment.

   Santa   Clara                     
54.04%   5285   6912   1627   55.45%   7,463    551   53.70%      
45.96%   4495   5802   1307   44.55%   6,277    475   46.30%      
8.08%   9780   12714   2934   10.91%              1026     7.41%    -0.34%   Dem decline

[Torie]

Costa will win CA-20. There is next to nothing to count as someone noted from Kings, which is the Pubbie's base. So it looks like probably the GOP will pick up 62 seats net, assuming that they bag NY-1 and NY-25.

If they win both NY-01 and NY-25, they will pick up 63 seats (remember, TX-27 was recently called for the GOP).

They might even be able to pick up 64 if they win in IL-08 (what's going on with that, by the way?).

Based off the breakout of the absentees Bishop likely wins.

Assuming the partisan breakdown was the same as what was counted so far vis a vis party registration. But the absentees from Wayne County in NY-25 were considerably more GOP than what came before, giving the Pubbie about 500-600 votes more than anticipated. New York is on the East coast, not the West coast.

[Torie]

In CA-11, Harmer had a very rough day yesterday, as votes came in from Alameda, replicating its earlier swing to McNerney plus a bit. Harmer will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat in San Joaquin, the one place where he won, by having the late absentees and provisionals swing to him by perhaps 6%, plus have a turnout that matches the balance of the district with its late reporting, to get back to even.. That is highly unlikely. Harmer is really on the ropes now.

   Alameda               11/9/2010   
57.32%   15688   16086   398   59.49%   21024   4938   59.96%
42.68%   11679   11950   271   40.51%   15247   3297   40.04%
14.65%  27367  28036   669   18.98%   36271   8235   19.93%   5.28%   Dem Gain

[Torie]

Meanwhile, things are getting tense in IL-8. Assuming foul play is involved, it does strike me as odd that the Cook County Dem operatives really want to hold this seat that bad, particularly if it is going to be gerrymandered away. The article fails to give the Cook County side of the story, either because it is biased, or because the Cook County operatives are stonewalling.

[Torie]

Well boys and girls (I forgot we seem to be a female free zone), CA-11 will stay in Dem hands. This one is over.

San Joaquin                        
Harmer   52.48%    45,958   58652   12,694   51.65%         
McNerney47.52%   41,612   53493   11,881   48.35%   0.83%   Dem Improvement   
                               87,570                24,575   

In sum, the GOP bombed out in CA. They took nothing from the Dems, nothing, except perhaps picking up the AG slot (Cooley, but I have not been tracking that one closely), while losing one assembly seat.    Sure, some of the Dem margins eroded, some substantially, but the color is still all blue, or red, or whatever color is the Dem color.

Addendum:

Given the Dem lean of these late absentees, and how Cooley's margin is eroding, he looks like he is headed to defeat as well, unless Orange County and other such places are discernably slower in counting their late absentees than the balance of the state, but bearing in mind that the provisionals, which are the last to count typically, have typically an even more Dem lean. So Cooley is on life support probably.

Kamala D. Harris (Dem)   3,928,805 45.8%
Steve Cooley (Rep)         3,940,205 45.9%

      

[Torie]

Has anybody see or computed a national popular vote total for all 435 races for the House of Representatives?

Green Papers says 52.2 to 44.6.  My latest tally has 52.1 to 44.7, but there are about 5 uncontested CDs that I'm going to have to work at to get numbers (or simply wait for the official canvass - like in Alabama).

Here is the place for your missing Alabama numbers Sam. Yes, it was hard to find. The trick is to go to wikipedia for the 2010 elections for each state, and explore their links. That is how I found this hidden page at the Alabama SOS site.

[Torie]

If Cooley ends up losing by a tiny margin, and since Mcnerney has more or less held on in his district, this election cycle will have been awesome.

But what chance is there really of Cooley losing? He is still ahead by 20,000 votes, and that margin is going to be hard to whittle down. She might be able to get it down below 10,000 but obviously that is not enough. The one statewide race where I actually cared whether the Democrat won, the Republican wins.

How many ballots are they left to count, my friend? Do you want to take a guess? It's over a million, yes a million!  You just gotta love our state; it is just such a blast. If you are a masochist, I suppose you could slap the ballots left to count numbers from here on to a spreadsheet, and do candidate splits based on the split in each county so far, and do a projection. Glancing at the sheet, maybe Cooley will pull it out, if he is running close in LA County. Is he?  I have not checked.

Addendum: The sheet does not reflect ballots that were counted and totals released on the afternoon of Nov 10 I see (I know that, because it says San Joaquin's last numbers were from Nov 8, and I know they released a count of a bunch of votes late yesterday afternoon (the ballots which put a stake into the heart of Harmer).

[Torie]

Is there any other state that you are missing Sam?  I am here for you pal. 

[Torie]

Wikipedia says he's Catholic, FWIW. I think that might be a legal requirement to win NY-13.

And I thought you had to be Italian too, but apparently not, in the case of McMahon.

[Torie]

Maffei, in NY-25, is almost as in extremis as Harmer in CA-11. Looking at the numbers at the link will tell you why. That race is probably over.

Meanwhile, the fun and games will probably continue for weeks, in NY-1. That seat will probably be the last in the United States to be decided.

Presumably next Tuesday will be the day that IL-8 is decided, unless of course it isn't.

[Torie]

GOP at 242?

NY-25 gives them 241 (that one is almost in the bag), and if you think Walsh has won IL-8 (too early to say that quite yet), that would be 242, and if the Pubbie wins in a month or so in NY-1, that would be 243, or a gain of 64 seats. If Bishop (D) wins NY-1, that is a gain of 63 seats, which is the precise number that I "predicted."  

[Torie]

If Bishop wins, and the Pubbie prevails in NY-25, which is still quite likely, but a bit more problematical than it was (the Dems have done well with the absentee ballots in Syracuse, and slashed the Pubbies lead substantially, but a third of what remains to be counted is from heavily GOP Wayne), my 63 seat "prediction" of Pubbie gains will be well, exactly right.  Pity about NY-1 though from my perspective. The Pubbie seems like someone "we" need.

Great analysis Smash in any event. Thanks.

[Torie]

Bishop wins, hopefully =)

I've heard etheridge will concede =/. but ellmers will be very vulnerable in 2012

What, after the disgusting Democratic gerrymander is replaced by a disgusting Republican one? Hah.

I dont see why the Democratic legislature in NC doesnt quickly pass a law that gives the governor a veto over redistricting in the lame duck session.

Are they in session?  If they do that, I would suggest the Pubbies get rid of some inconvenient laws regarding district drawing in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The rules are crimping my style, as I struggle to effect an effective gerrymander that won't be ruled illegal. Particularly irritating are these trapped Pubbie votes in a black district in the Gross Pointes in Michigan that I can't get at, and I need them to fully realize my evil designs. It's tough!  

[Torie]

Its now a 45 vote lead according to Newsday as the count moves towards Brookhaven.

Of the areas in which the absentees have been counted, Altschuler won the election day count 50.49-49.45, Bishop won the election day count  Brookhaven 50.11-49.82.  Brookhaven is by far the largest of the towns in the district  (made up 62.62% of the election day ballots) has about 5,000 absentee ballots

Edit.  A few sources are reporting Altschuler's lead is 30 votes as the Brookhaven count starts.  Also Altchuler has so far challenged 211 more ballots than Bishop (the challenged ballots have yet to be counted).  Its not known who the challenged votes are for, but age, party affiliation and residence are known.

http://www.27east.com/news/article.cfm/Southampton/312923/#comments

Here is a good source of up to the minute reporting of the count in NY-1.  And yes, it does look like the Pubbie is about done for.

And yes, there are rules in PA, or at least a supposedly independent commission of some sort, or both. And PA "needs" a really good gerrymander. I did a number on Pittsburgh, with the CD following rust belt, burnt out steel mill river valleys that are like the tentacles of an octopus. It's just an awesome work of art, that should be hung in a prestigious museum. If the Dems change the rules in one state, that to me is something on the order of a declaration of war.

[Torie]

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Still uncounted are Brookhaven and Riverhead --two Republican townships, and there are more registered republicans who took absentee ballots than there were democrats. The feeling here is Bishop had to do better than he did in his hometown of Southampton, and better than he has in East Hampton, which is 2 to 1 Democrat. I predict Randy by 800 votes.

The Pubbie's performance among absentees in Smithtown sucked, and that is the most GOP township in Suffolk within NY-1 of all. The A man has underperformed  among absentees so far in every township counted. Just an observation, and that is why I agree with Smash, that the A man is on the ropes. It is still a bit early to call this race, but his chances of winning are now in single digits in my opinion.

[Torie]

It looks like the Pubbie has finally nailed down NY-25, so it looks like +63 seats for the Pubbies. I am a genius.

[Torie]

It looks like the Pubbie has finally nailed down NY-25, so it looks like +63 seats for the Pubbies. I am a genius.

Yeah, it seems that NY-01 is your biggest potential foil, and that one is drifting D (like a glacier though).

God loves me.

[Torie]

California just doesn't have enough blue collar Catholic Anglos. They were the group that swung, and swung hard, against the Dems this year. Joe Biden was chatting about that. As someone noted in a post, the candidate the Dems fear most is Christie.

[Torie]

You know, I am old enough to remember when Barone was a Democrat. Yes, he was. He clearly isn't anymore:

"Republican gains in state legislatures were even more impressive. They will control the redistricting process in four of the five states in this region. The exception is Illinois, where Rod Blagojevich's successor as governor, Pat Quinn, held on by a few thousand votes -- helped perhaps by the refusal of some Democratic county clerks not to send out military ballots in the time required by federal law. They did manage to send unrequested ballots to inmates of the Cook County Jail, though."

Ouch!  Punish them, and then punish them some more, Michael.  No, I don't think whatever games were played disenfranchising our military would have put Brady over the top.  What sank Brady in the end, is that he lost the Franzl vote, as it were. I wonder if I would have voted for him if I lived in Illinois. Probably. I am down on the Dems this year. They need to be punished.