IL-PPP: Hillary dominating (user search)
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  IL-PPP: Hillary dominating (search mode)
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Author Topic: IL-PPP: Hillary dominating  (Read 4071 times)
Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70
« on: July 29, 2015, 09:33:52 AM »
Quote from: mencken on July 29, 2015, 08:31:26 AM
~10 point leads seem more suggestive of a Kerry/Gore-esque performance than either of Obama's wins (granted the home state effect was strong in his first election). Either Hillary is a paper tiger or the Midwest is trending Republican even faster than I thought.

Yes, 10 points in Illinois is a very pedestrian lead (and it's the state Hillary grew up in). The favorite son effect for Obama, largely wore off in 2012, and yet he won by close to 20 points.
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,096
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70
« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2015, 09:34:52 AM »
Quote from: mencken on July 29, 2015, 08:31:26 AM
~10 point leads seem more suggestive of a Kerry/Gore-esque performance than either of Obama's wins (granted the home state effect was strong in his first election). Either Hillary is a paper tiger or the Midwest is trending Republican even faster than I thought.

Yes, 10 points in Illinois is a very pedestrian lead (and it's the state Hillary grew up in). The favorite son effect for Obama, largely wore off in 2012, and yet he won by 17 points.
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