The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Torie]

Thanks for the tip cinyc!

Here's one of the photos in question (sorry for the large size):



The picture in the Samoa News article is the same group, from a different angle.  The Samoa News article leaves out the woman on the left, who appears to be Joan Holland.

Note that this picture has 10 people in it, so one of them is not a delegate (presumably one of the men).

Let's focus on the women here, as they are the ones in Trump gear.  There are four women in the delegation: Amata Radewagen, Tina Ioane, Ann Longnecker, and Joan Holland.

We've already established Joan Holland is the woman on the far left.  The woman on the far right appears to be Ann Longnecker.

That leaves Amata Radewagen and Tina Ioane, assuming they are in the picture at all.  The woman in the hat and the official-looking Trump shirt is plausibly Amata Radewagen, though it's hard to tell with the hat.  That leaves Tina Ioane as the woman with the homemade Trump shirt, though there are no pictures elsewhere on the internet to confirm.

My Samoan partner Dan's Dad went to a couple of Pub conventions as a delegate from Samoa, even when he was residing in San Pedro with the military, but I digress. Dan says he knows the Trump delegate, and likes her. Dan of course is well, not a Pub! But then neither am I - anymore.

[Torie]

Assuming Trump gets only 6 delegates out of Wisconsin, what percentage of the remaining delegates does he need to win from here on out to reach a majority?  Around 60%?

[Torie]

Assuming Trump gets only 6 delegates out of Wisconsin, what percentage of the remaining delegates does he need to win from here on out to reach a majority?  Around 60%?

Assuming he wins 6 in WI and gets swept in the rest of CO and WY, he'd need to win 63% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to clinch on pledged delegates alone.

Tough, but doable; would require blowout wins in IN, CA, and NY, or a shock win in MT.

Of course, Trump is going to win some unpledged delegates.  Based on our most recent information, I'm going to project he wins at least 20 unpledged delegates out of Pennsylvania.  Combined with the rest of my projections, that puts him at 1205.  If he can convince a fair chunk of the remainder of the PA delegation, as well as a few insular delegates, he may just be able to eke out a win on the first ballot.

Pennsylvania, Indiana, and California are the keys.

Thanks to you and dax00 for crunching the numbers for me. Hopefully Trump won't get as close as your projection. That's too close!

[Torie]

You say that Trump will do well in heavily Dem CD's in CA, but the latest poll, has LA County as Cruz's strongest area by far, with a pretty substantial lead.

[Torie]

So, let's talk about California a little bit.

Field Poll subamples suggests Cruz doing well in LA County and the Central Valley, running close in the Bay Area (small subsample), but getting demolished in "Other Southern California."

So, "Other Southern California."  This seems to be San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Kern, San Bernardino, Orange, Riverside, San Diego, and Imperial.

Normally, I'd imagine San Diego and Orange to be prime Cruz country.  Does this mean Trump is demolishing everywhere else, or do I have the wrong read on these counties?

You have the counties right (other than maybe Kern and San Luis Obispo). The everywhere else in Socal number for Trump does seem high. Sure he is probably demolishing in Riverside and San Bernadino, and Kern of course if it is within the zone, but San Diego and Orange have more people. I would think Cruz would be particularly strong in Orange. Trump would do well in Ventura, and not well in Santa Barbara, but Ventura again has more people than Santa Barbara.

[Torie]

New York Results

Trump wins the delegate count 90-5.  This is obviously a very good night for him, and ahead of my projections by 6 delegates.  If the result is indicative of what can happen next week, and Trump can win Connecticut with more than 50% of the vote, the path to a first ballot victory is looking a lot easier; a win in Indiana would essentially seal the deal.

On the Democratic side, Hillary comes out with a +31 net gain in delegates.  Sanders' already small path to a victory in pledged delegates gets even slimmer.  He now needs to essentially sweep the remaining 6-delegate districts by large margins (58.3% of the two-way vote, to win them 4-2).  This, to put it mildly, seems impossible, barring the usual death/indictment caveats.

You think the NY result, will push up Trump's numbers elsewhere? I tend to doubt that myself. NY is NY.

[Torie]

New York Results

Trump wins the delegate count 90-5.  This is obviously a very good night for him, and ahead of my projections by 6 delegates.  If the result is indicative of what can happen next week, and Trump can win Connecticut with more than 50% of the vote, the path to a first ballot victory is looking a lot easier; a win in Indiana would essentially seal the deal.

On the Democratic side, Hillary comes out with a +31 net gain in delegates.  Sanders' already small path to a victory in pledged delegates gets even slimmer.  He now needs to essentially sweep the remaining 6-delegate districts by large margins (58.3% of the two-way vote, to win them 4-2).  This, to put it mildly, seems impossible, barring the usual death/indictment caveats.

You think the NY result, will push up Trump's numbers elsewhere? I tend to doubt that myself. NY is NY.

Where did he say that? It looks like he's looking at other states through the lens of what happened in New York, not saying the result of New York will affect what happens somewhere else.

He didn't. I was posing a question. Some are making the assertion out there on the Fruited Plain.

[Torie]

Basically: my earlier predictions had been bullish for Kasich in Fairfield.  The results out of Westchester suggest that may have been far too bullish, and we should take seriously the polls that show Trump at 50% in Connecticut.

I would love to see a town-by-town breakdown of the results in Westchester, though.

I was not trying to imply that the results last night meant anything for the race in Indiana; I was merely stating that if Trump has a good night next Tuesday (the largest factor in which is a sweep in Connecticut), he needs fewer delegates in the later contests to reach 1237.  If he were to win in Indiana (which I still view as unlikely), that would be enough, assuming he doesn't lose California.

Here is a breakdown by CD in Westchester. It's pretty uniform. Notice the Carson thing, which was what pushed up Trump from 50% in Westchester to 55%, since the Carson votes were voided. Also notice how pathetically low the Pub turnout was.

[Torie]

The Carson tally in Westchester is clearly a glitch. I called the BOE and just got babble. Folks called in the wrong numbers i was told. Really, all across the county? No, there is a machine glitch or something. I called the press in Westchester. They are on it. I told the BOE to be very worried. They are facing a huge cf. They moved me up the ladder when I said my next step was the press. But still the same babble, but they said they would look into it.

And like magic, the Carson vote drops to the appropriate number. The website or somebody moved some of the Trump voters (too bad it was him that was cheated of votes) to Carson. That has been corrected. Maybe my phone call made a difference, of the call be the press after I talked to the press did.