Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Torie]

My wild guess is that Obama will end up with 61% in Philly. Obviously that would be a disappointment for him.

[Torie]

Delaware County evenly split with 5% of the votes in.

[Torie]

Scranton 78-22 Clinton with 6% in.

[Torie]

Sorry, I have to ask: who is winning PA 13? 

It will be Clinton. She is running strong with white voters in Philly. And the 13th part of Montco has a lot of Jews in it.

[Torie]

Ya, but the point is that Montco at least in the 13th part of it, isn't going to erase Obama's northeast Philly deficit.

[Torie]

Sorry, I have to ask: who is winning PA 13? 

None of those counties are in yet.

Phila 38% in, Obama is at 56%.  Right now, he's running slightly worse than Jesse Jackson in 1988.

About 40% of PA 13 is Northeast Philly.

[Torie]

Philly keeps on going stronger for Obama as expected.

Like I said, white areas first (probably PA-13 as the others are talking about), black areas later. Obama will get around 65% in Philadelphia County in the end, I think.

I suspect the white votes previously counted are more in the more central Philly precincts - those cheesesteak ones. Probably what is coming in now is a mix of black precincts and northeast Philly.

[Torie]

Obama is actually doing (relatively) well in some of the rural counties.

Not really. Dauphin will probably go to Clinton when it is over, not that that is rural. In most places, it is a slaughter.

[Torie]

Bucks 70-30 Hillary, so she is winning Levittown handsomely (that must be where it is from).

[Torie]

Bucks 70-30 Hillary, so she is winning Levittown handsomely (that must be where it is from).

Surprise, surprise. The community founded so you don't have to live around black people.

Well there was that long article, that suggested some of the ex factory rats were open to an Obama candidacy. Apparently not.

[Torie]

Allegheny, 45% in, Clinton 56%.

Phila, 60% in Clinton 41%.  I would suspect that PA-1 might be hers.

I doubt it.

[Torie]

Look at Delaware.

I know it's only 35% in, but Clinton's up 52-48.  I think that's bad news for Obama.

That is why Clinton is in the hunt for a 10% margin. She probably won't quite get there, but she might. Montco will tell us probably.

[Torie]

Amish for Obama! He leads 57-43 in Lancaster with 14% in.

I suspect the Amish think being  a Democrat is a sin. Wise folk.

[Torie]

Does anybody know the results in Lancaster, Chester and Montgomery County's? I've heard nothing from those county's yet .

Obama is carry downtown Lancaster. Nothing in from Chester and Montco.

[Torie]

Obama is now not only almost guaranteed a win in Dauphin, he might even get over 60%. He must've done relatively strong among whites there too.

Obama is doing well in that region, for some reason, including York (a hyper GOP county). I would be surprised however if it is 60% in Dauphin.

[Torie]

A 13% vote dump from Montco, and Hillary up by 8%. Maybe Ward 8-4 in Lower Merion was real.

[Torie]

I suspect it is more likely than not now, that Hilary will get her 10% margin.

[Torie]

Philadelphia up to 86%. Obama at 62%.

That is why Clinton is in the hunt for a 10%  margin. Unless what remains is mostly black in Philly, that place has shot its wad pretty much.

[Torie]

Centre is now in the Obama column, 38% in.

By 4%. The youth vote in Pennsylvania is not apparently very "hip."  That is part of the story here I think.

[Torie]

Centre is now in the Obama column, 38% in.

By 4%. The youth vote in Pennsylvania is not apparently very "hip."  That is part of the story here I think.

Nah, Centre County (and Union County) is like Athens County, Ohio. Big college town surrounded by uber-Clintonland, overall will be a very close result.

Ya, but how important are they demographically?

[Torie]

The exit polls show Clinton got 57% of the Jewish vote, 7% of the total vote for the state. That is why Montco is doing what it is doing, I suspect.

[Torie]

Greenpages is reporting Obama taking PA-2 5 to 4!  PA-1 is a one delegate win as of 10:00 PM.  PA-13 is a one delegate win.

Right now, Obama can really only win CD's 1, 2, 13, 16, 17.  The only clear win is PA-2.  The last three are still out.  He cannot win any of those by more than 1 net delegate.

Those numbers are way stale.

[Torie]

8 points with 72%. Want to go with 54-46? I predicted that, by the way.

No, she is going to get her 10% I think. But we have to see what the rest of Montco, Chester, and Lancaster does, along with the hinterlands of Dauphin. There are some uber Clintonion precincts out in the hinterlands undercounted as well.

Edit: But I see that Montco and tightened, and Delaware has moved into a narrow Obama lead, so maybe not.

[Torie]

She'll probably break 10%.  Most of what's out should favor her.  Any calculations on the net delegates.

Boy, Obama sounds bitter[/i].

I am not sure. I don't think the Philly area stuff still out will break 10% or more for Clinton. We shall see. And some  of Dauphin is still out. What are the government workers thinking, or have they all been counted? What's left in the hinterlands is getting to be a smaller percentage than what is left in the the Philly bougeioise precincts.

[Torie]

Oh my, Obama is carrying Lancaster with 8% with 62% in. Not THAT is interesting.