What are the odds that Toomey will be the next junior Senator from PA?

[Torie]

Well given this is one topic that will never die, somebody had to put up this poll. It might as well be me. I am torn between Option 7 and 8 myself.

[Torie]

Ah Phil, life is about odds. We know that there is uncertainty as to what the odds are, on top of the uncertainty as to what the outcome will be, but we still think about it, particularly on this forum.

I take it you are not voting in this poll, eh?  

[Torie]

The odds just went up, but they're still less than 30%.

Why has it gone up. Specter probably won't be primaried by the Democrats and can Toomey beat Specter in a general election?

I think he has a better chance of beating Specter than he did a strong Democrat. Specter's re-elect numbers are terrible, this makes him look like a flip-flopping opportunist, Toomey will no longer have to run to Specter's right in the primary before moving back to the center, etc.

Ya, that is my instinct. Toomey's chances may just have blipped up a bit. Arlen's antics make him look "terrible" really. He should have thought through this in private, including on card check, without in public doing this opportunistic vacillative act, that makes him look like a desperate old man.

[Torie]

Ya, Lunar, clearly, particularly if polls near primary day, show Gerlach competitive in the General, and Toomey DOA. Ya, I know, that is totally impossible because I don't understand PA, and etc, etc., but still ... .